MLB · Wed, Jun 24 · 2:10 PM

Guardians at White Sox

O/U 7.5 · RL White Sox -1.5 · Rate Field

GARY'S PICK

MLB@ White Sox· -112

The South Side of Chicago plays host to a high-stakes afternoon finale as the division-leading White Sox look to complete a crucial series sweep against their rivals, the Cleveland Guardians. With first place on the line, the battle on the mound features Tanner Bibee trying to stop Cleveland's slide against Erick Fedde and a red-hot Chicago club. The market is overpaying for the White Sox's spectacular 26-12 home record, but today's specific matchup mechanics heavily favor Cleveland. Tanner Bibee is pitching beautifully, throwing 20.1 innings and allowing only 5 earned runs (2.21 ERA) over his last three starts, while racking up 15 strikeouts in his last two outings. What makes this start so promising for Bibee is his extreme platoon advantage. The White Sox have packed their lineup with six left-handed hitters, which plays directly into Bibee's primary strength. He has absolutely dominated lefties this season, holding them to a microscopic .207 average and a .694 OPS. His high-whiff sweeper is designed to neutralize left-handed bats, making this a highly favorable matchup for the right-hander. Conversely, Erick Fedde is facing a Guardians offense that is custom-built to exploit his biggest weakness. Fedde has extreme platoon splits, yielding a massive .279 batting average, an .880 OPS, and 11 home runs to right-handed hitters in just 136 at-bats. The Guardians have stacked the middle of their order with right-handed bats like David Fry and Rhys Hoskins, who are primed to punish Fedde's cutter and sinker. Additionally, Cleveland's leadoff catalyst, Steven Kwan, has historically owned Fedde, entering the game a career 5-for-9 with a home run against him. This gives Cleveland a highly reliable, immediate path to early base runners and run production to support Bibee. The strongest argument against the Guardians is their current offensive drought, averaging only 2.33 runs per game during this losing streak, coupled with Chicago's well-rested bullpen and late-inning magic. However, the defensive difference-makers behind the plate swing the edge back to Cleveland. Patrick Bailey is an elite defender with a stellar 40.6% caught-stealing rate, throwing out 13 of 32 runners, which completely shuts down Chicago's running game. Meanwhile, the White Sox are starting rookie Kyle Teel, who has faced only 2 stolen base attempts this season, failing to catch either one. In an afternoon getaway game where runs will be at a premium, Cleveland's ability to control the running game and force the issue on the bases will make the difference. Backed by the heavy motivation of avoiding a sweep and regaining a share of the division lead, the Guardians at -112 represent the value play on the board.

The market is overpaying for the White Sox's spectacular 26-12 home record, but today's specific matchup mechanics heavily favor Cleveland. Tanner Bibee is pitching beautifully, throwing 20.1 innings and allowing only 5 earned runs (2.21 ERA) over his last three starts, while racking up 15 strikeouts in his last two outings. What makes this start so promising for Bibee is his extreme platoon advantage. The White Sox have packed their lineup with six left-handed hitters, which plays directly into Bibee's primary strength. He has absolutely dominated lefties this season, holding them to a microscopic .207 average and a .694 OPS. His high-whiff sweeper is designed to neutralize left-handed bats, making this a highly favorable matchup for the right-hander.

Conversely, Erick Fedde is facing a Guardians offense that is custom-built to exploit his biggest weakness. Fedde has extreme platoon splits, yielding a massive .279 batting average, an .880 OPS, and 11 home runs to right-handed hitters in just 136 at-bats. The Guardians have stacked the middle of their order with right-handed bats like David Fry and Rhys Hoskins, who are primed to punish Fedde's cutter and sinker. Additionally, Cleveland's leadoff catalyst, Steven Kwan, has historically owned Fedde, entering the game a career 5-for-9 with a home run against him. This gives Cleveland a highly reliable, immediate path to early base runners and run production to support Bibee.

The strongest argument against the Guardians is their current offensive drought, averaging only 2.33 runs per game during this losing streak, coupled with Chicago's well-rested bullpen and late-inning magic. However, the defensive difference-makers behind the plate swing the edge back to Cleveland. Patrick Bailey is an elite defender with a stellar 40.6% caught-stealing rate, throwing out 13 of 32 runners, which completely shuts down Chicago's running game. Meanwhile, the White Sox are starting rookie Kyle Teel, who has faced only 2 stolen base attempts this season, failing to catch either one. In an afternoon getaway game where runs will be at a premium, Cleveland's ability to control the running game and force the issue on the bases will make the difference. Backed by the heavy motivation of avoiding a sweep and regaining a share of the division lead, the Guardians at -112 represent the value play on the board.

The pick & result

Published pick: Guardians ML -112
Published odds: -112
Result: Won
Final score: 4-3

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

The read

Injuries noted

White Sox: [NEW] Noah Schultz (SP) — Knee (Right): Schultz (knee) struck out four over 2.2 scoreless innings in a rehab start Sunday with Triple-A Charlotte. He scattered two hits and one walk and also hit two batters. (Jun 22 — 2d ago) [NEW] Munetaka Murakami (1B) — Hamstring (Right): White Sox manager Will Venable said Sunday that Murakami (hamstring) is increasing the intensity of his hitting and running at about 80 percent intensity, Scott Merkin of MLB.com reports. (Jun 21 — 2d ago) [KNOWN] Everson Pereira (RF) — Concussion: The White Sox activated Pereira (pectoral) from the 10-day injured list Thursday. (Jun 18 — 5d ago) [KNOWN] Tyler Gilbert (RP) — Shoulder (Left): The White Sox placed Gilbert on the 15-day injured list Wednesday with a left shoulder impingement. (Jun 10 — 13d ago) [KNOWN] Austin Hays (LF) — Calf (Left): Hays has been pulled off his rehab assignment at Triple-A Charlotte due to a recurrence of left calf soreness, Scott Merkin of MLB.com reports. (Jun 9 — 14d ago) [KNOWN] Jordan Leasure (RP) — Forearm (Right): Leasure (forearm) said Friday that he will be shut down from throwing for four weeks, James Fegan of SoxMachine.com reports. (May 30 — 25d ago) [KNOWN] Mike Clevinger (Starting Pitcher) — Knee (Right): Clevinger is expected to be sidelined for around six weeks after being diagnosed with an MCL sprain in his right knee, Jason Mackey of MLB.com reports. (May 8 — 47d ago) [KNOWN] Mike Vasil (Starting Pitcher) — Elbow (Right): The White Sox transferred Vasil (elbow) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Tuesday. (May 8 — 47d ago) [KNOWN] Tanner Murray (2B) — Shoulder (Left): The White Sox transferred Murray (shoulder) to the 60-day injured list Monday. (May 8 — 47d ago) [KNOWN] Brooks Baldwin (Second Baseman) — Elbow (Right): The White Sox transferred Baldwin (elbow) from the 10-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Wednesday. (May 8 — 47d ago) [KNOWN] Mike Tauchman (Right Fielder) — Knee (Left): Tauchman (knee) is still rehabbing at the Mets' spring training complex and has yet to resume baseball activities, Tim Britton of The Athletic reports. (May 18 — 37d ago) Guardians: [KNOWN] Jhonkensy Noel (Right Fielder) — Wrist (Left): Noel was placed on the 7-day injured list at Triple-A Norfolk on Monday with left wrist inflammation, Matt Weyrich of The Baltimore Sun reports. (Jun 8 — 15d ago) [NEW] Chase DeLauter (RF) — Ribs (Right): Guardians manager Stephen Vogt said Monday that the team hopes DeLauter (rib) will be ready to return during its June 26-July 5 homestand, Tim Stebbins of MLB.com reports. (Jun 22 — 1d ago) [KNOWN] Jose Ramirez (3B) — Hand (Left): Ramirez underwent surgery to address the hamate bone fracture in his left hand Tuesday and is expected to be sidelined 5-to-7 weeks, Zack Meisel of The Athletic reports. (Jun 16 — 7d ago) [KNOWN] Angel Martinez (LF) — Foot (Left): Martinez (foot) will be placed on the 10-day injured list Tuesday, reports Cade Cracas of Sports Illustrated. (Jun 16 — 7d ago)

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

STARTER FORM

Erick Fedde: 2.19 ERA over his last 3 starts
2.19
The last 3 times out: 12.3 innings, 3 earned runs, 12 Ks. That 2.19 ERA sits 2.27 runs under his 4.46 season number.

PLATOON EDGE

Sam Antonacci (bats L) hits 1st against Tanner Bibee (RHP)
.900
Over 158 AB vs. Right, Sam Antonacci owns a .900 OPS versus .442 in 44 AB the other way. He sees RHP Tanner Bibee tonight hitting 1st, where the platoon side lines up his way.
Travis Bazzana (bats L) hits 1st against Erick Fedde (RHP)
.985
Over 116 AB vs. Right, Travis Bazzana owns a .985 OPS versus .526 in 63 AB the other way. He sees RHP Erick Fedde tonight hitting 1st, where the platoon side lines up his way.
Andrew Benintendi (bats L) gets a RHP from the 3rd spot
.766
Andrew Benintendi's vs. Right line (.766 OPS, 184 AB) sits well above his .454 mark the other way (32 AB). Tonight's starter Tanner Bibee throws RHP, the hand he hits best.

COOLING OFF

Miguel Vargas: .615 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Tanner Bibee
.615
Miguel Vargas's .615 OPS over the last 15 days (48 PA) trails his .820 season mark, down 0.205. Tonight he draws RHP Tanner Bibee — his weaker side: a .695 OPS vs RHP across 195 AB.

HR THREAT

Colson Montgomery to go deep
+285
Despite a poor career history against Tanner Bibee (0-for-7), Colson Montgomery enters this matchup as the White Sox's most dangerous home run threat, leading the team with 20 on the season. Montgomery is currently in a high-variance power phase, having launched 4 home runs over his last 10 games.
Rhys Hoskins to homer
+400
Rhys Hoskins is in a prime position to exploit Erick Fedde's primary weakness: right-handed power. Fedde has been significantly more vulnerable to right-handed batters this season, surrendering 11 of his 14 total home runs to the platoon.

FIRST INNING

CLE have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 1 of their last 10
1/10
Cleveland Guardians have scored in the first inning just 1 time in their last 10 games — slow-starting lineup, and the 1st has been a free pass for opposing starters.

All research from this day

About this analysis

Who made it: Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data: Daily picks first stored June 24, 2026 at 10:44 AM ET.
Odds record: The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, fanatics, caesars, draftkings, betmgm, betrivers.
Accountability: Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.

Props on this game

GARY'S PICK
RHYS HOSKINSHITS UNDER 0.5
MLBGuardians· +105
LOST · ACTUAL 1
Rhys Hoskins enters this series finale in a severe offensive drought, having recorded just four hits in his last 36 at-bats (.111 AVG). He faces Erick Fedde, who has been far more effective at Rate Field (3.29 ERA) than on the road this season. Fedde limits hard-hit contact to 38.2% and possesses an 8.3% barrel rate allowed, making it difficult for power-reliant hitters like Hoskins to find success. With the Guardians' offense missing key catalyst Jose Ramirez and averaging only 2.33 runs per game during their current three-game skid, the volume and quality of opportunities for Hoskins are suppressed. Given that Hoskins has failed to record a hit in three of his last five starts, the Under 0.5 hits is well-supported by both his individual slump and the starter's home splits.
Rhys Hoskins
Hits under 0.5
+105 · LOST · ACTUAL 1
Guardians
Rhys Hoskins enters this series finale in a severe offensive drought, having recorded just four hits in his last 36 at-bats (.111 AVG). He faces Erick Fedde, who has been far more effective at Rate Field (3.29 ERA) than on the road this season.
Fedde limits hard-hit contact to 38.2% and possesses an 8.3% barrel rate allowed, making it difficult for power-reliant hitters like Hoskins to find success. With the Guardians' offense missing key catalyst Jose Ramirez and averaging only 2.33 runs per game during their current three-game skid, the volume and quality of opportunities for Hoskins are suppressed.
Given that Hoskins has failed to record a hit in three of his last five starts, the Under 0.5 hits is well-supported by both his individual slump and the starter's home splits.
GARY'S PICK
COLSON MONTGOMERYHITS UNDER 0.5
MLBWhite_Sox· +116
LOST · ACTUAL 1
While Colson Montgomery has reached the 20-home run mark this season, his matchup against Tanner Bibee is historically lopsided. Montgomery is hitless in seven career plate appearances against Bibee, striking out four times in those encounters. Bibee’s arsenal is specifically effective against left-handed hitters like Montgomery, holding them to a .207 average and a 0.75 GO/AO ratio, indicating a fly-ball/strikeout profile that matches up poorly with Montgomery's .219 seasonal average. Montgomery has been held hitless in four of his last five games, and Bibee’s 9.4 K/9 rate suggests Montgomery will struggle to put the ball in play frequently enough to break his historical trend against the Cleveland right-hander.
Colson Montgomery
Hits under 0.5
+116 · LOST · ACTUAL 1
White_Sox
While Colson Montgomery has reached the 20-home run mark this season, his matchup against Tanner Bibee is historically lopsided. Montgomery is hitless in seven career plate appearances against Bibee, striking out four times in those encounters. Bibee’s arsenal is specifically effective against left-handed hitters like Montgomery, holding them to a .207 average and a 0.75 GO/AO ratio, indicating a fly-ball/strikeout profile that matches up poorly with Montgomery's .219 seasonal average. Montgomery has been held hitless in four of his last five games, and Bibee’s 9.4 K/9 rate suggests Montgomery will struggle to put the ball in play frequently enough to break his historical trend against the Cleveland right-hander.
THE LONG SHOT
COLSON MONTGOMERYHR OVER 0.5
MLBWhite Sox· +285
LOST · ACTUAL 0
Despite a poor career history against Tanner Bibee (0-for-7), Colson Montgomery enters this matchup as the White Sox's most dangerous home run threat, leading the team with 20 on the season. Montgomery is currently in a high-variance power phase, having launched 4 home runs over his last 10 games. He faces a pitcher in Tanner Bibee who has struggled mightily with the long ball recently, surrendering 9 home runs in his last 29.1 innings. Bibee’s platoon splits also favor Montgomery; he has allowed 10 of his 16 home runs to left-handed hitters. While the weather conditions are not ideal for fly-ball carry, Montgomery's elite HR-per-AB rate recently suggests he only needs one mistake from a pitcher currently struggling to keep the ball in the yard.
Colson Montgomery
HR over 0.5
+285 · LOST · ACTUAL 0
White Sox
Despite a poor career history against Tanner Bibee (0-for-7), Colson Montgomery enters this matchup as the White Sox's most dangerous home run threat, leading the team with 20 on the season. Montgomery is currently in a high-variance power phase, having launched 4 home runs over his last 10 games.
He faces a pitcher in Tanner Bibee who has struggled mightily with the long ball recently, surrendering 9 home runs in his last 29.1 innings. Bibee’s platoon splits also favor Montgomery; he has allowed 10 of his 16 home runs to left-handed hitters.
While the weather conditions are not ideal for fly-ball carry, Montgomery's elite HR-per-AB rate recently suggests he only needs one mistake from a pitcher currently struggling to keep the ball in the yard.
THE LONG SHOT
RHYS HOSKINSHR OVER 0.5
MLBGuardians· +400
LOST · ACTUAL 0
Rhys Hoskins is in a prime position to exploit Erick Fedde's primary weakness: right-handed power. Fedde has been significantly more vulnerable to right-handed batters this season, surrendering 11 of his 14 total home runs to the platoon. Hoskins enters this game after hitting a home run yesterday and has historically performed better against right-handed pitching (.701 OPS vs. RHP) than lefties. Fedde’s reliance on a cutter that has been hit exceptionally hard this year (xwOBA of .741) aligns perfectly with Hoskins' veteran ability to identify and punish mistake pitches in the zone. Combined with Fedde's recent trend of allowing 8 home runs over his last five starts, Hoskins provides strong value for a power-based prop.
Rhys Hoskins
HR over 0.5
+400 · LOST · ACTUAL 0
Guardians
Rhys Hoskins is in a prime position to exploit Erick Fedde's primary weakness: right-handed power. Fedde has been significantly more vulnerable to right-handed batters this season, surrendering 11 of his 14 total home runs to the platoon.
Hoskins enters this game after hitting a home run yesterday and has historically performed better against right-handed pitching (.701 OPS vs. RHP) than lefties.
Fedde’s reliance on a cutter that has been hit exceptionally hard this year (xwOBA of .741) aligns perfectly with Hoskins' veteran ability to identify and punish mistake pitches in the zone. Combined with Fedde's recent trend of allowing 8 home runs over his last five starts, Hoskins provides strong value for a power-based prop.

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