Cubs at Mets
O/U 11.5 · RL Cubs -1.5 · Citi Field
Cubs ML+100
CONF 78%
WCashedFinal 10-3
Cubs ML-108
CONF 82%
WCashedFinal 10-3
The read: Cubs ML
The afternoon sun beats down on Citi Field as the red-hot Chicago Cubs roll into Queens looking to extend their dominance over a reeling New York Mets squad. Chicago enters this matchup as the hottest team in baseball, leading the league with a .324 batting average over the last week and fueled by Pete Crow-Armstrong, who is on a historic power streak with 11 home runs in his last 20 games. Crucially, the Mets are severely compromised for this matchup as superstar Juan Soto (.965 OPS, 17 HR) is completely out of the lineup after exiting Tuesday's game with back tightness. With Soto sidelined and Francisco Lindor still on the IL for this contest, the Mets' offense is missing its teeth, making the Cubs at even money an outstanding value against a heavily depleted opponent.
The primary case for the Mets centers on young starter Nolan McLean, who boasts a dominant 10.5 K/9 and an elite 3.27 xERA that suggests he is even better than his actual 3.67 ERA. Meanwhile, Cubs starter Javier Assad is a regression candidate on paper, with a 3.89 ERA that outruns his 4.02 xERA. However, Assad is a sinker-ball pitcher who is perfectly supported by the absolute best defense in Major League Baseball. The Cubs rank first in the league with +37 Outs Above Average, led by their elite infield of Dansby Swanson (+9 OAA) and Nico Hoerner (+7 OAA). This defense is uniquely equipped to turn Assad's contact into easy outs, neutralizing McLean's statistical edge. Furthermore, McLean faces a major strategic hurdle in Seiya Suzuki, who has hit two home runs off him in just three career head-to-head at-bats.
As the game transitions to the later innings, the bullpen matchup becomes a massive mismatch. The Mets' relief corps is statistically struggling, posting a dismal 5.06 ERA for the month of June, and is heavily overworked after being forced to cover extensive innings over the last three days. Closer Devin Williams has been highly vulnerable with a 4.81 ERA, and several of their key setup men are fatigued. In contrast, the Cubs feature a rest-advantaged bullpen with highly reliable high-leverage arms like Daniel Palencia (2.70 ERA) and Hoby Milner (3.38 ERA) ready to lock down the game. With New York's lineup gutted and their bullpen running on empty, the Cubs' elite defensive safety net and late-game depth make them the clear play.
Injuries noted
Mets: [NEW] Juan Soto (LF) — Back (Left): Manager Carlos Mendoza said after Tuesday's game against the Cubs that Soto (back) is considered day-to-day, Laura Albanese of Newsday reports. (Jun 23 — 0d ago) [NEW] Luis Robert Jr. (Center Fielder) — Back (Not Specified): Mets manager Carlos Mendoza said that Robert "looked normal" while taking a full session of batting practice in the cages Tuesday, Max Goodman of NJ.com reports. (Jun 23 — 0d ago) [NEW] Christian Scott (SP) — Hip (Right): Manager Carlos Mendoza said Tuesday that Scott (hip) is expected to be reinstated from the 15-day injured list to start this weekend against the Phillies, Andrew Tredinnick of The Bergen Record reports. (Jun 23 — 0d ago) [NEW] Francisco Lindor (Shortstop) — Calf (Left): Mets manager Carlos Mendoza said that Lindor (calf) could return from the 10-day injured list as soon as Wednesday, Jorge Castillo of ESPN.com reports. (Jun 22 — 1d ago) [KNOWN] Tyrone Taylor (CF) — Hip (Right): Taylor (hip) will begin a rehab assignment at Double-A Binghamton on Friday, Abbey Mastracco of the New York Daily News reports. (Jun 18 — 5d ago) [KNOWN] Christian Arroyo (Second Baseman) — Undisclosed (Not Specified): The Mets re-signed Arroyo to a minor-league contract Tuesday. (Jun 17 — 7d ago) [KNOWN] Ronny Mauricio (SS) — Thumb (Left): Mauricio (thumb) could begin a rehab assignment later this week, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports. (Jun 15 — 8d ago) [KNOWN] Jorge Polanco (Second Baseman) — Achilles (Left): An MRI on Polanco's left ankle/Achilles tendon came back negative Tuesday, Andrew Tredinnick of The Bergen Record reports. (Jun 15 — 8d ago) [KNOWN] Brandon Waddell (Relief Pitcher) — Undisclosed (Not Specified): Waddell (shoulder) picked up the win after allowing three runs on four hits while striking out two across three innings during Saturday's game against Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes Barre. (May 31 — 23d ago) [KNOWN] Clay Holmes (SP) — Leg (Right): The Mets transferred Holmes (fibula) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Tuesday. (May 19 — 35d ago) [KNOWN] Kevin Herget (Relief Pitcher) — Undisclosed (Not Specified): Herget signed a minor league contract that includes an invitation to spring training with the Mets on Thursday, Will Sammon of The Athletic reports. (May 8 — 47d ago) [KNOWN] Justin Hagenman (Relief Pitcher) — Ribs (Not Specified): The Mets placed Hagenman on the 60-day injured list Saturday due to a rib fracture. (May 8 — 47d ago) Cubs: [KNOWN] Hunter Harvey (Relief Pitcher) — Triceps (Right): The Cubs moved Harvey (triceps) from the 15-day IL to the 60-day IL on Sunday. (May 17 — 37d ago) [KNOWN] Porter Hodge (Relief Pitcher) — Elbow (Right): The Cubs transferred Hodge (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Friday, Taylor McGregor of Marquee Sports Network reports. (May 8 — 47d ago) [KNOWN] Cade Horton (Starting Pitcher) — Elbow (Right): The Cubs transferred Horton (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Saturday, Andy Martinez of Marquee Sports Network reports. (May 8 — 47d ago) [KNOWN] Julian Merryweather (Relief Pitcher) — Hamstring (Left): Merryweather (hamstring) will begin a rehab assignment with the Twins' rookie-level Florida Complex League affiliate Tuesday, Theodore Tollefson of ZoneCoverage.com reports. (May 8 — 47d ago) [NEW] Matthew Boyd (SP) — Shoulder (Left): Cubs manager Craig Counsell said Monday that Boyd (shoulder/knee) will return from the 15-day injured list to make his next start in the majors, Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune reports. (Jun 22 — 1d ago) [NEW] Riley Martin (RP) — Elbow (Left): The Cubs announced June 10 that Martin (elbow) has resumed playing catch, MLB.com reports. (Jun 21 — 2d ago) [NEW] Daniel Palencia (RP) — Elbow (Right): Palencia was diagnosed with a mild flexor strain in his right arm Saturday, Jesse Rogers of ESPN.com reports. (Jun 20 — 3d ago) [KNOWN] Jameson Taillon (SP) — Hamstring (Left): Taillon (hamstring) is expected to be sidelined until after the All-Star break, Vinnie Duber of the Chicago Sun-Times reports. (Jun 9 — 14d ago)
The read: Cubs ML
The lights are bright at Citi Field as the Chicago Cubs look to complete a doubleheader sweep against a reeling New York Mets squad under the Queens night sky. While the Mets are hoping for an emotional boost from the return of shortstop Francisco Lindor, they are facing a massive roadblock with the fresh absence of superstar Juan Soto, who is sidelined with lower back tightness. The Cubs, on the other hand, are absolutely rolling on offense after a dominant 10-3 victory in Game 1, and they match up perfectly against Mets left-hander Sean Manaea tonight.
The primary advantage for Chicago lies in the stark contrast between the two starting pitchers and how the Cubs' bats exploit Sean Manaea’s glaring platoon split. Manaea has struggled immensely against right-handed hitters this season, allowing a hefty .828 OPS. The Cubs’ lineup is uniquely constructed to punish southpaws, featuring left-handed killers like Seiya Suzuki, who boasts a .929 OPS vs. LHP, and Pete Crow-Armstrong, who possesses a reverse-split .826 OPS vs. LHP. With clear skies and a warm 83°F temperature allowing the ball to carry, Manaea's fly-ball profile (0.72 GO/AO) is in severe danger against a disciplined Chicago lineup that has shown a stellar 19.9% whiff rate and a 25.4% chase rate recently. On the other side, Shota Imanaga is a far superior starter. Although his surface 4.26 ERA looks mediocre, his 3.64 xERA and 1.06 WHIP show he has pitched much better than his results, and his platoon splits are completely neutral (.692 OPS vs. RHB, .708 OPS vs. LHB), neutralizing the Mets' right-handed adjustments.
The strongest argument against backing the Cubs is their decimated pitching depth, with Edward Cabrera and Ben Brown hitting the injured list today and a heavily taxed bullpen. However, Imanaga is the one healthy ace the Cubs have left, and he has corrected his home run issues recently by allowing just one earned run and zero home runs over his last two starts. Furthermore, the Mets are suffering from a far more immediate crisis; Soto’s absence removes their premier offensive threat, and they are currently a defensive liability, having committed 45 errors to Chicago's 31. This disparity in fundamental execution will be magnified under pressure. At a Pick'em price of -108, the market has not fully discounted the loss of Soto or the Cubs' current offensive momentum, making Chicago the high-value side to back tonight.
Injuries noted
Mets: [NEW] Juan Soto (LF) — Back (Left): Mets manager Carlos Mendoza said Wednesday that Soto (back) is still being evaluated and it's possible the outfielder could need a stint on the injured list, Jorge Castillo of ESPN.com reports. (Jun 24 — 0d ago) [NEW] Luis Robert Jr. (Center Fielder) — Back (Not Specified): Mets manager Carlos Mendoza said that Robert "looked normal" while taking a full session of batting practice in the cages Tuesday, Max Goodman of NJ.com reports. (Jun 23 — 1d ago) [NEW] Christian Scott (SP) — Hip (Right): Manager Carlos Mendoza said Tuesday that Scott (hip) is expected to be reinstated from the 15-day injured list to start this weekend against the Phillies, Andrew Tredinnick of The Bergen Record reports. (Jun 23 — 1d ago) [KNOWN] Tyrone Taylor (CF) — Hip (Right): Taylor (hip) will begin a rehab assignment at Double-A Binghamton on Friday, Abbey Mastracco of the New York Daily News reports. (Jun 18 — 6d ago) [KNOWN] Christian Arroyo (Second Baseman) — Undisclosed (Not Specified): The Mets re-signed Arroyo to a minor-league contract Tuesday. (Jun 17 — 7d ago) [KNOWN] Jorge Polanco (Second Baseman) — Achilles (Left): An MRI on Polanco's left ankle/Achilles tendon came back negative Tuesday, Andrew Tredinnick of The Bergen Record reports. (Jun 15 — 9d ago) [KNOWN] Brandon Waddell (Relief Pitcher) — Undisclosed (Not Specified): Waddell (shoulder) picked up the win after allowing three runs on four hits while striking out two across three innings during Saturday's game against Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes Barre. (May 31 — 23d ago) [KNOWN] Clay Holmes (SP) — Leg (Right): The Mets transferred Holmes (fibula) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Tuesday. (May 19 — 36d ago) [KNOWN] Kevin Herget (Relief Pitcher) — Undisclosed (Not Specified): Herget signed a minor league contract that includes an invitation to spring training with the Mets on Thursday, Will Sammon of The Athletic reports. (May 8 — 47d ago) [KNOWN] Justin Hagenman (Relief Pitcher) — Ribs (Not Specified): The Mets placed Hagenman on the 60-day injured list Saturday due to a rib fracture. (May 8 — 47d ago) Cubs: [KNOWN] Hunter Harvey (Relief Pitcher) — Triceps (Right): The Cubs moved Harvey (triceps) from the 15-day IL to the 60-day IL on Sunday. (May 17 — 38d ago) [KNOWN] Porter Hodge (Relief Pitcher) — Elbow (Right): The Cubs transferred Hodge (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Friday, Taylor McGregor of Marquee Sports Network reports. (May 8 — 47d ago) [KNOWN] Cade Horton (Starting Pitcher) — Elbow (Right): The Cubs transferred Horton (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Saturday, Andy Martinez of Marquee Sports Network reports. (May 8 — 47d ago) [KNOWN] Julian Merryweather (Relief Pitcher) — Hamstring (Left): Merryweather (hamstring) will begin a rehab assignment with the Twins' rookie-level Florida Complex League affiliate Tuesday, Theodore Tollefson of ZoneCoverage.com reports. (May 8 — 47d ago) [NEW] Edward Cabrera (SP) — Hamstring (Left): Cabrera was diagnosed with a moderate-grade left hamstring strain Wednesday following an MRI and is without a timeline for a return, Taylor McGregor of Marquee Sports Network reports. (Jun 24 — 0d ago) [NEW] Ben Brown (RP) — Neck (Not Specified): Brown has returned to Chicago to have his neck strain examined by specialists, Bruce Levine of 670TheScore.com reports. (Jun 24 — 0d ago) [NEW] Matthew Boyd (SP) — Shoulder (Left): Boyd (shoulder/knee) will be activated from the 15-day injured list to start Thursday's game against the Mets, Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune reports. (Jun 24 — 0d ago) [NEW] Riley Martin (RP) — Elbow (Left): The Cubs announced June 10 that Martin (elbow) has resumed playing catch, MLB.com reports. (Jun 21 — 2d ago) [KNOWN] Daniel Palencia (RP) — Elbow (Right): Palencia was diagnosed with a mild flexor strain in his right arm Saturday, Jesse Rogers of ESPN.com reports. (Jun 20 — 4d ago) [KNOWN] Jameson Taillon (SP) — Hamstring (Left): Taillon (hamstring) is expected to be sidelined until after the All-Star break, Vinnie Duber of the Chicago Sun-Times reports. (Jun 9 — 14d ago)
Props on this game
3Pete Crow-ArmstrongOVER 1.5 Total Bases Total Bases+120
LActual 1
Pete Crow-Armstrong is currently on a historic tear, batting .488 with 6 home runs over his last 10 games. He has recorded at least two total bases in 9 of those 10 games.
Today he faces right-hander Nolan McLean, against whom he holds a significant platoon advantage (.928 OPS vs RHP), while McLean has allowed 5 of his 8 home runs to lefties. The weather at Citi Field (83 degrees) and the wind blowing out toward the pull-side for PCA further elevate his power ceiling.
Given his 90% recent success rate on this line, the +120 price offers significant value.
Nolan McLeanOVER 5.5 Strikeouts Strikeouts-150
WActual 9
McLean is an elite strikeout specialist with a 10.5 K/9 rate, coming off a 9-strikeout gem in his last start. He has cleared the 5.5 mark in 80% of his recent starts. The Cubs' lineup features several aggressive hitters with high strikeout tendencies (Swanson, Busch, Suzuki). With the Mets playing a doubleheader and possessing a thin bullpen due to yesterday's usage, McLean will be given every opportunity to pitch deep into the game, maximizing his chances to reach the 6-strikeout threshold.
Francisco AlvarezOVER 0.5 Home Runs Home Runs+370
WActual 1
Francisco Alvarez represents the Mets' most potent power option during their current skid, having homered twice in his last five games. While Cubs starter Javier Assad has been statistically dominant against right-handed hitters this season (allowing just one home run and a .487 OPS), Alvarez is a high-variance power hitter who has shown the ability to clear the fence in bunches.
The +370 odds require a hit rate of only 21.3%, and considering Alvarez has homered in 40% of his last five games, the value is significant. Alvarez has cleared 5 total bases in two of his last five starts, indicating that when he makes contact, it is frequently for extra bases.
In a game where the Mets are desperate for offensive production after being outscored 40-14 in their last four games, Alvarez will likely be aggressive in hitting situations. The primary risk is Assad’s elite suppression of right-handed power, but Alvarez’s recent barrel rate and the warm hitting conditions (81°F) provide a plausible path to a long ball.
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