Brewers at Reds
O/U 9.5 · RL Brewers -1.5 · Great American Ball Park
Brewers ML-136
CONF 82%
WCashedFinal 6-5
The read
The stage is set at a warm Great American Ball Park as the first-place Milwaukee Brewers look to complete a series sweep against a struggling Cincinnati Reds team trying to salvage the finale. Milwaukee has completely dominated this stadium, winning 12 of their last 13 games in Cincinnati, and they hold all the cards tonight. Left-handed starter Shane Drohan brings his elite whiff-inducing stuff—anchored by a 95 mph fastball with a 37.3% whiff rate and an 86 mph slider with a 44.8% whiff rate—to face a freezing Reds lineup. Cincinnati has been held to just 2 hits in each of the first two games of this series and is currently mired in an 18-inning scoreless drought. While Drohan faces a righty-heavy lineup tonight, his reverse platoon split holding right-handed batters to a .623 OPS makes him uniquely suited to neutralize Cincinnati's right-handed hitters, including Elly De La Cruz.
On the other side, the market is overpaying for a fragile number with Reds starter Rhett Lowder. While Lowder carries a 4.82 ERA, his underlying 5.24 xERA indicates major vulnerability, and his form is in freefall after he walked 4 batters and surrendered 8 ER in just 1.1 IP in his last start. Lowder has a massive weakness against lefties, giving up a .794 OPS and all 5 of his home runs this season to left-handed hitters. This is a catastrophic matchup against a Brewers lineup that features 6 left-handed bats tonight, including Christian Yelich and Brice Turang, who has hammered right-handed pitching to the tune of a .959 OPS this season.
The best case for Cincinnati rests on the sweep-avoidance factor at home and the potential for Elly De La Cruz to single-handedly spark the offense. However, the Brewers' defensive superiority completely blunts that threat. Catcher William Contreras boasts an elite 44% caught-stealing rate (15 CS on 34 attempts), which acts as a massive deterrent for a speed-reliant Reds team, while Reds catcher Tyler Stephenson has thrown out only 18% of baserunners (12 CS on 67 attempts). Take the Brewers to finish the job and sweep the series on the road.
Injuries noted
Reds: [NEW] Nick Lodolo (SP) — Wrist (Left): Reds manager Terry Francona said that Lodolo (wrist) "showed up pretty good" when he reported to the ballpark Wednesday, Charlie Clifford of NBC 5 Cincinnati reports. (Jun 24 — 0d ago) [NEW] Hunter Greene (Starting Pitcher) — Elbow (Right): Reds manager Terry Francona said Wednesday that Greene (elbow) will make one more rehab start with Triple-A Louisville on Sunday, Charlie Clifford of NBC 5 Cincinnati reports. (Jun 24 — 0d ago) [NEW] Emilio Pagan (RP) — Hamstring (Left): Pagan (hamstring) will begin a rehab assignment Thursday, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports. (Jun 22 — 2d ago) [NEW] Brandon Williamson (Starting Pitcher) — Shoulder (Left): Williamson (shoulder) tossed a bullpen session Saturday, his first since landing on the injured list April 30, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports. (Jun 22 — 2d ago) [KNOWN] Ke'Bryan Hayes (3B) — Back (Not Specified): Hayes (back) has begun hitting at the Reds' training facility in Arizona, MLB.com reports. (Jun 18 — 6d ago) [KNOWN] Graham Ashcraft (RP) — Elbow (Right): Ashcraft (elbow) received a platelet-rich plasma injection Tuesday, MLB.com reports. (Jun 3 — 21d ago) Brewers: [NEW] DL Hall (RP) — Pectoral (Left): Hall (pectoral) hopes to gain clearance to resume throwing during a checkup Tuesday, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports. (Jun 23 — 1d ago) [NEW] Brandon Lockridge (LF) — Knee (Right): Lockridge's timeline for a return has been pushed back to late July after imaging showed a chondral flap in his right patella, Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports. (Jun 23 — 1d ago) [NEW] Coleman Crow (SP) — Forearm (Right): Crow (forearm) will throw a bullpen session Tuesday, Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports. (Jun 23 — 1d ago) [NEW] Logan Henderson (SP) — Back (Not Specified): Henderson (back) is aiming to begin a rehab assignment Sunday, Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports. (Jun 23 — 1d ago) [KNOWN] Jared Koenig (Relief Pitcher) — Elbow (Left): Koenig (elbow) transferred his rehab assignment to Triple-A Nashville on Tuesday and could be activated from the injured list in about a week, Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports. (Jun 10 — 14d ago) [KNOWN] Brian Fitzpatrick (RP) — Elbow (Left): Fitzpatrick (elbow) has been diagnosed with a left UCL strain and will get a second opinion to determine if he needs Tommy John surgery, MLB.com reports. (Jun 9 — 14d ago) [KNOWN] Carlos Rodriguez (RP) — Shoulder (Right): The Brewers placed Rodriguez on the 15-day injured list Monday due to a right shoulder impingement, MLB.com reports. (Jun 8 — 15d ago) [KNOWN] Rob Zastryzny (RP) — Shoulder (Left): The Brewers reinstated Zastrzyny (shoulder/ribs) from the 60-day injured list Sunday. (Jun 3 — 21d ago) [KNOWN] Angel Zerpa (Relief Pitcher) — Elbow (Left): The Brewers transferred Zerpa (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Sunday. (May 31 — 24d ago)
Props on this game
4Jackson ChourioOVER 1.5 Total Bases Total Bases-113
WActual 3
Jackson Chourio is currently the hottest hitter in the Milwaukee lineup, highlighted by a 4-for-5 performance yesterday that featured two home runs. Over his last 10 games, he has hit four home runs and recorded 11 hits, showing a significant power surge.
He faces Rhett Lowder, whose 5.24 xERA suggests he has been fortunate to maintain his current 4.82 ERA. Lowder allows a 39.4% hard-hit rate and has struggled to limit contact, evidenced by a 1.45 WHIP.
Given that the game is in the most hitter-friendly park in the division with wind blowing out toward left field, Chourio is well-positioned to record multiple bases. His season average against right-handed pitching (.276) and recent form provide a strong foundation for this over.
Elly De La CruzUNDER 1.5 Total Bases Total Bases-155
WActual 1
Elly De La Cruz returned from a three-week hamstring injury yesterday and looked rusty, going 0-for-3 with two strikeouts. He is currently in a deep slump, batting just .175 over his last 10 appearances.
The matchup is particularly unfavorable tonight; Shane Drohan has been exceptional against right-handed and switch hitters, holding them to a .208 batting average. Furthermore, the entire Cincinnati offense has stalled, recording just four total hits over the last 18 innings.
While De La Cruz has the speed to turn a single into two bases, his high strikeout rate and the Brewers' dominant rotation (five consecutive quality starts) make it unlikely he clears this total in a game where his team is struggling to even put the ball in play.
Jake BauersOVER 0.5 Home Runs Home Runs+390
WActual 1
Jake Bauers enters this matchup with a significant tactical advantage against Reds starter Rhett Lowder. Lowder has exhibited a stark platoon split this season, surrendering all five of his allowed home runs to left-handed hitters in 118 at-bats.
Bauers, a left-handed power threat, has hit 11 of his 13 home runs against right-handed pitching this year, posting a .904 OPS in that split. Lowder's contact quality metrics—specifically a 39.4% hard-hit rate and a 5.24 xERA—suggest he is prone to giving up loud contact in a hitter-friendly environment like Great American Ball Park.
With Lowder also struggling with command (18 walks in his last 18.1 innings), Bauers is likely to see favorable counts that force Lowder into the strike zone with his 93 mph fastball.
Jackson ChourioOVER 0.5 Home Runs Home Runs+390
LActual 0
Jackson Chourio is currently in the midst of a significant power surge, highlighted by a two-home run performance in his most recent game. While Rhett Lowder has yet to allow a home run to a right-handed batter this season, his high barrel rate allowed (8.8%) and a hard-hit rate near 40% indicate he is vulnerable to elite contact.
Chourio has been more productive against right-handers this season, hitting seven of his 10 home runs in that split with an .841 OPS. Batting second in the Brewers' order, Chourio will maximize his plate appearances against a starter who has struggled to find the zone recently.
The combination of his current hot streak and Lowder's high xERA (5.24) suggests that a regression to the mean for Lowder’s HR-allowed splits vs. righties is likely in this high-offense venue.
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