Orioles at Angels
O/U 9 · RL Orioles -1.5 · Angel Stadium
Orioles ML-142
CONF 82%
LLostFinal 1-5
The read
The evening sun dips below the horizon in Anaheim as the Orioles and Angels prepare for a crucial midsummer battle under the lights at Angel Stadium. With Baltimore looking to extend its winning streak and the Angels trying to salvage their home stand, tonight's pitching matchup sets the stage for a fascinating clash of styles.
The most decisive factor tonight is the pitching matchup, which features a massive talent and form disparity. Shane Baz is in peak form for the Orioles, pitching to a 2.92 ERA in June and posting five quality starts in his last seven outings. His upper-90s fastball and high-whiff cutter are a perfect match against an Angels lineup starting 8 right-handed hitters, as Baz holds righties to a meager .229 AVG and .655 OPS this season. On the flip side, Angels rookie Ryan Johnson is struggling mightily through his first two career starts, carrying a 12.82 ERA and 2.33 WHIP. While Johnson’s 6.27 xERA indicates he is performing better than his raw numbers suggest, the market is overpaying for any hope of immediate regression against a potent Orioles offense. Righties are crushing Johnson to the tune of a .429 AVG and 1.224 OPS, which is catastrophic when facing Pete Alonso and Taylor Ward, while Gunnar Henderson and Samuel Basallo will punish his sinking pitches from the left side.
Beyond the starting pitching, the bullpen situation strongly favors the visitors. Thanks to eight shutout innings from yesterday's starter, Baltimore’s bullpen is completely fresh, with high-leverage arm Rico Garcia (1.95 ERA) having thrown only 9 pitches on Monday. Conversely, the Angels are heavily taxed; Sam Aldegheri threw 91 pitches yesterday and Brent Suter threw 35 pitches, leaving the middle relief vulnerable. The Angels also lack a dependable option in the late innings, as nominal closer Jordan Romano is struggling with a 10.13 ERA. If Johnson cannot go deep into this game—which is highly likely given his short outings—the Angels will be forced to expose a tired and unstable bullpen.
The strongest argument against Baltimore lies in their infield defense, which is in an emergency state with Jackson Holliday and Blaze Alexander sidelined. Outfielder Leody Taveras has had to shift to third base, which could invite errors if the Angels put the ball in play. However, the Angels' lineup lacks the consistent punch to fully exploit these defensive gaps against a pitcher of Baz’s caliber. With the wind blowing at 8 mph out to center field, the environment at Angel Stadium tonight plays perfectly into the hands of Baltimore's elite power hitters. Despite their defensive injuries, the Orioles' overwhelming advantages on the mound, in the bullpen, and at the plate make them a confident selection to win outright tonight.
Injuries noted
Angels: [NEW] Niko Kavadas (First Baseman) — Undisclosed (Not Specified): The Angels reassigned Kavadas to minor-league camp Wednesday. (Jun 21 — 1d ago) [NEW] Grayson Rodriguez (SP) — Back (Not Specified): Rodriguez (back) threw off flat ground in the bullpen Saturday, Rhett Bollinger of MLB.com reports. (Jun 20 — 2d ago) [KNOWN] Mike Trout (CF) — Hamstring (Not Specified): Trout, who was placed on the 10-day injured list earlier Thursday, said he's beginning to feel better and is hopeful it will be a short stay on the shelf, Rhett Bollinger of MLB.com reports. (Jun 18 — 5d ago) [KNOWN] Travis d'Arnaud (C) — Foot (Right): D'Arnaud (foot) is no longer wearing a walking boot, and he played catch on the field Wednesday, Rhett Bollinger of MLB.com reports. (Jun 13 — 10d ago) [KNOWN] Yusei Kikuchi (SP) — Shoulder (Left): Kikuchi (shoulder) is scheduled to begin a throwing program in mid-June, per MLB.com. (Jun 13 — 10d ago) [KNOWN] Adam Frazier (2B) — Elbow (Right): Frazier (elbow) took part in light baseball activities Friday, per MLB.com. (Jun 13 — 10d ago) [KNOWN] Jack Kochanowicz (SP) — Elbow (Right): Kochanowicz (elbow) will undergo Tommy John surgery, Erica Weston of Bally Sports West reports. (Jun 10 — 13d ago) [KNOWN] Sebastian Rivero (C) — Hand (Left): Rivero was removed from Tuesday's game against the Astros with an apparent left hand injury, Rhett Bollinger of MLB.com reports. (Jun 10 — 13d ago) [KNOWN] Yoan Moncada (3B) — Knee (Right): Moncada will require surgery on his right knee, Francys Romero of BeisbolFR.com reports. (Jun 8 — 14d ago) [KNOWN] Gustavo Campero (Right Fielder) — Hand (Right): The Angels selected Campero's contract from Double-A Rocket City and placed him on the 10-day injured list Saturday due to a fractured hand. (Jun 6 — 17d ago) Orioles: [NEW] Dean Kremer (Starting Pitcher) — Quadriceps (Right): Kremer (quadriceps) struck out five and allowed one earned run on two hits and and two walks in 3.2 innings during his rehab start Sunday with Triple-A Norfolk. (Jun 21 — 1d ago) [NEW] Adley Rutschman (C) — Concussion (Not Specified): The Orioles placed Rutschman on the 7-day injured list Saturday after he was diagnosed with a concussion, Rich Dubroff of BaltimoreBaseball.com reports. (Jun 20 — 2d ago) [KNOWN] Dylan Beavers (RF) — Oblique (Right): Beavers (oblique) is expected to begin a rehab assignment at Double-A Chesapeake on Thursday, Andy Kostka of TheBanner.com reports. (Jun 16 — 7d ago) [KNOWN] Chris Bassitt (SP) — Back (Not Specified): Bassitt (back) received a facet injection to his lower back Friday, and he's set to begin his throwing progression, Jake Rill of MLB.com reports. (Jun 16 — 7d ago) [KNOWN] Yaramil Hiraldo (Relief Pitcher) — Shoulder (Right): Hiraldo (shoulder) will throw live batting practice Friday, Jake Rill of MLB.com reports. (Jun 16 — 7d ago) [KNOWN] Ryan Mountcastle (First Baseman) — Foot (Left): Mountcastle (foot) did some running Saturday, Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com reports. (Jun 13 — 10d ago) [KNOWN] Zach Eflin (Starting Pitcher) — Elbow (Right): Eflin underwent Tommy John surgery on his right elbow Wednesday, Andy Kostka of TheBaltimoreBanner.com reports. (May 8 — 46d ago) [NEW] Jackson Holliday (2B) — Groin (Not Specified): Holliday (groin) is not in the starting lineup Tuesday against the Angels, Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com reports. (Jun 23 — 0d ago) [NEW] Blaze Alexander (3B) — Knee (Right): Alexander (knee) is not in the starting lineup Tuesday against the Angels, Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com reports. (Jun 23 — 0d ago) [NEW] Cade Povich (SP) — Elbow (Left): Povich (elbow) struck out three and allowed one hit and no walks over 3.1 scoreless innings Sunday in a rehab start with Double-A Chesapeake. (Jun 21 — 1d ago)
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Board stored June 23, 2026 at 11:35 AM ET.
- Odds record
- The displayed line is the value retained with the call. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, fanatics, betrivers, caesars, betmgm, draftkings.
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Props on this game
2Gunnar HendersonOVER 1.5 Total Bases Total Bases-115
WActual 5
Gunnar Henderson enters tonight's matchup in peak form, having posted a .316 batting average and 3 home runs over his last 10 games, including a 3-for-3 performance with a home run in his most recent start. He faces Ryan Johnson, who has struggled significantly in the 2026 season with a 12.82 ERA and 2.33 WHIP.
Johnson has been particularly vulnerable to left-handed hitters, allowing a .324 average and a 1.013 OPS. Henderson’s historic success against the Angels (career 1.203 OPS) and the favorable weather conditions at Angel Stadium (76 degrees, 8 mph wind blowing out to CF) make him a strong candidate for multiple total bases.
Risk: Henderson's high walk rate (demonstrated by 4 walks in his last 2 games) could reduce the number of official at-bats he receives.
Pete AlonsoOVER 1.5 Total Bases Total Bases-110
LActual 1
Pete Alonso is perfectly positioned to exploit Ryan Johnson's extreme struggles against right-handed hitters. In 2026, Johnson is allowing a .429 average and a 1.224 OPS to right-handed batters.
Alonso is hitting .303 with 3 home runs over his last 10 games, including a 3-for-5 performance with a home run and a 1-for-1 game with 3 walks in his last two outings. Johnson's fly-ball tendency (0.62 GO/AO) and high hard-hit rate (42.1%) are dangerous against a power hitter like Alonso, especially with the wind blowing out to center field.
Risk: Alonso’s high strikeout frequency (9 K in last 10 games) could be a factor if Johnson finds consistency with his sweeper.
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