Reds at Yankees
O/U 9.5 · RL Yankees -1.5 · Yankee Stadium
The pick & result
- Published pick
- Yankees -1.5 +100
- Published odds
- +100
- Result
- Lost
- Final score
- 10-2
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
The read
We have got a beautiful, breezy afternoon in the Bronx as the high-powered New York Yankees host the Cincinnati Reds for game two of this interleague clash. While the market has priced the Yankees as heavy favorites, the underlying starting pitching data and environmental factors show that this price is entirely justified. The primary storyline of this game is the catastrophic matchup for Reds starter Andrew Abbott, an extreme fly-ball pitcher with a 0.67 GO/AO ratio who must navigate a warm, 80-degree day at Yankee Stadium with a 15 mph wind blowing directly out to the short right-field porch. The market is overpaying for Abbott's surface 3.95 ERA, which is built on highly fragile ground considering his actual 4.78 xERA.
The Yankees are uniquely constructed to exploit Abbott's vulnerabilities, especially his unusual reverse splits that see left-handed batters hitting .277 against him. Left-handed sensation Ben Rice is in a premier spot, carrying an elite .875 OPS against lefties and a monstrous 1.036 slugging percentage against Abbott's primary four-seam fastball pitch type. Right behind him, veteran Paul Goldschmidt represents the ultimate southpaw deterrent with a massive 1.214 OPS against left-handed pitching this season. This creates an incredibly dangerous middle of the order that can turn routine fly balls into home runs in today's windy conditions, rendering Abbott's low 6.6 K/9 rate a liability in a park that punishes contact.
The strongest argument against the Yankees is Will Warren's recent command struggles, as he has failed to finish the fifth inning in his last two starts and has a poor 17:12 K/BB ratio over his last five outings. However, Warren still possesses a solid 3.55 xERA and a much safer 0.99 GO/AO ground-ball profile, giving him a margin for error that Abbott simply does not have. Furthermore, Warren's 9.4 K/9 strikeout rate allows him to escape tight jams, and his bullpen backup is elite, featuring a rested David Bednar and Fernando Cruz. With the Reds' offense struggling to generate consistent runs, expect the Yankees to overpower Cincinnati's pitching and secure the home victory.
Injuries noted
Yankees: [NEW] Max Fried (SP) — Elbow (Left): Fried (elbow) will throw a bullpen session this weekend, Gary Phillips of the New York Daily News reports. (Jun 19 — 0d ago) [NEW] Austin Wells (C) — Head (Not Specified): Wells (head) went 2-for-5 with two homers and three RBI in a rehab appearance with Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre on Thursday. (Jun 19 — 0d ago) [NEW] Trent Grisham (CF) — Hamstring (Right): Yankees manager Aaron Boone said Tuesday that Grisham has been diagnosed with a "moderate" right hamstring strain, Brendan Kuty of The Athletic reports. (Jun 16 — 3d ago) [NEW] Giancarlo Stanton (Designated Hitter) — Calf (Right): The Yankees announced that Stanton (calf) reinjured his calf and will have a slow week of activities, Bryan Hoch of MLB.com reports. (Jun 16 — 3d ago) [KNOWN] Aaron Judge (RF) — Ribs (Right): The Yankees announced Thursday that Judge has a stress fracture of his first rib on his right side and will be sidelined for 4-to-6 weeks before being re-evaluated, Bryan Hoch of MLB.com reports. (Jun 5 — 14d ago) Reds: [NEW] Pierce Johnson (RP) — Elbow (Right): Johnson (elbow) allowed one run on two hits and struck out one over one inning for Triple-A Louisville on Friday. (Jun 20 — 0d ago) [NEW] Elly De La Cruz (SS) — Hamstring (Right): De La Cruz (hamstring) went 2-for-2 with a walk and a home run for Triple-A Louisville on Friday. (Jun 20 — 0d ago) [NEW] Hunter Greene (Starting Pitcher) — Elbow (Right): Greene (elbow) struck out six over four scoreless frames Thursday in his first rehab start with the Reds' Arizona Complex League affiliate. (Jun 19 — 1d ago) [NEW] Ke'Bryan Hayes (3B) — Back (Not Specified): Hayes (back) has begun hitting at the Reds' training facility in Arizona, MLB.com reports. (Jun 18 — 2d ago) [NEW] Emilio Pagan (RP) — Hamstring (Left): Pagan (hamstring) threw a bullpen session Tuesday and is scheduled to pitch in a simulated game/live batting practice session at Yankee Stadium on Friday, MLB.com reports. (Jun 17 — 3d ago) [KNOWN] Graham Ashcraft (RP) — Elbow (Right): Ashcraft (elbow) received a platelet-rich plasma injection Tuesday, MLB.com reports. (Jun 3 — 17d ago) [KNOWN] Brandon Williamson (Starting Pitcher) — Shoulder (Left): The Reds transferred Williamson (shoulder) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Wednesday. (May 8 — 43d ago)
The research
The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.
PLATOON EDGE
Paul Goldschmidt (bats R) gets a LHP from the 3rd spot
1.214Paul Goldschmidt's vs. Left line (1.214 OPS, 66 AB) sits well above his .695 mark the other way (108 AB). Tonight's starter Andrew Abbott throws LHP, the hand he hits best.
COOLING OFF
Spencer Steer: .388 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Will Warren
.388Spencer Steer's .388 OPS over the last 15 days (40 PA) trails his .747 season mark, down 0.359. Tonight he draws RHP Will Warren — his weaker side: a .643 OPS vs RHP across 192 AB.
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Daily picks first stored June 20, 2026 at 11:33 AM ET.
- Odds record
- The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, fanatics, caesars, draftkings, betmgm, betrivers.
- Accountability
- Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.
Props on this game
2- GARY'S PICKBEN RICETOTAL BASES OVER 1.5
Ben Rice is in a premier spot to capitalize on a specific stylistic matchup and favorable environmental factors. Facing left-hander Andrew Abbott, Rice encounters a pitcher with a significant fly-ball profile (0.67 GO/AO), which is dangerous at Yankee Stadium when the wind is blowing out to right field at 15 mph.
Rice has been elite at home this season, posting a 1.019 OPS and hitting 12 of his 21 home runs in the Bronx. While he is a left-handed hitter, Abbott has actually struggled more against lefties this season (.277 AVG allowed vs .240 against righties).
Furthermore, Abbott's underlying metrics suggest regression is coming, as his 4.78 xERA is nearly a full run higher than his surface ERA. Rice has cleared this 1.5 total bases line in three of his last five games and, as the leadoff hitter, will receive maximum plate appearances to find a gap or clear the short porch.
- GARY'S PICKJJ BLEDAYWALKS OVER 0.5
JJ Bleday has developed into one of the most disciplined hitters in the Reds' lineup, and the matchup against Will Warren favors his patient approach. Bleday has recorded at least one walk in 70% of his last 10 games, including two multi-walk performances in that span.
He faces Warren, who has struggled significantly with his command throughout June, leading to early exits in his last two outings. Warren’s inability to consistently find the zone plays directly into Bleday's strengths, especially since Bleday bats second and will likely see Warren multiple times before the Yankees' bullpen takes over.
Given that Bleday's break-even probability at +112 is only 47.2%, and his recent hit rate on this prop is 70%, there is significant value in the over.
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