Mets at Reds
O/U 9 · RL Mets -1.5 · Great American Ball Park
Mets ML-134
CONF 72%
WCashedFinal 9-1
The read
The afternoon sun beats down on Great American Ball Park as the Cincinnati Reds look to finish off a three-game sweep, but they face a major obstacle in a highly motivated New York Mets squad determined to salvage a victory before leaving town. On paper, the strongest argument against the Mets is their depleted bullpen and their recent defensive struggles up the middle with Bo Bichette playing out of position at shortstop (posting a weak -13 Outs Above Average). Combined with the Reds' massive series momentum after outscoring New York 17–3 over the first two games, it is easy to see why the public might lean toward Cincinnati. However, looking past the surface results reveals a starting pitching mismatch that heavily swings the advantage back to New York.
The market has priced the Mets as a -134 road favorite because it is refusing to buy into Nick Lodolo's fragile 5.21 ERA. Lodolo's underlying metrics are deeply concerning, featuring a 6.14 xERA, a high 10.2% barrel rate, and a fly-ball-leaning 0.86 GO/AO ratio. In a launchpad like Cincinnati with a 1.10 park factor and warm 77°F afternoon carry, Lodolo’s fly-ball profile is highly volatile, especially given his extreme platoon vulnerability of allowing a .400 AVG and 1.043 OPS to left-handed hitters. The Mets' top of the order is primed to exploit this immediately, featuring Carson Benge and the returning Juan Soto, who has decimated Lodolo in a brief history with a 1.667 OPS.
Conversely, Nolan McLean is a positive regression candidate whose 4.01 ERA is masked by a far superior 3.36 xERA. McLean is a ground-ball pitcher with a 1.39 GO/AO ratio, which is the exact recipe needed to survive Great American Ball Park. He holds right-handed hitters to a .170 AVG and a .556 OPS, matching up beautifully against a Reds lineup starting seven righty/switch hitters. This righty dominance should neutralize Cincinnati's hottest bat, Sal Stewart, who has struggled against slider/sweeper action with a .128 average. With McLean’s ground-ball profile keeping the ball in the yard and Luis Torrens behind the plate to shut down the running game with his 42.8% caught-stealing rate, the Mets have the perfect defensive and pitching alignment to stop the sweep.
Injuries noted
Reds: [NEW] Emilio Pagan (RP) — Hamstring (Left): Pagan (hamstring) threw a bullpen session Tuesday and is scheduled to pitch in a simulated game/live batting practice session at Yankee Stadium on Friday, MLB.com reports. (Jun 17 — 0d ago) [NEW] Pierce Johnson (RP) — Elbow (Right): Johnson (elbow) is scheduled to begin a rehab assignment with Triple-A Louisville on Thursday, MLB.com reports. (Jun 17 — 0d ago) [NEW] Elly De La Cruz (SS) — Hamstring (Right): De La Cruz (hamstring) is scheduled to begin running Tuesday and Wednesday, and he will begin a rehab assignment Friday with Triple-A Gwinnett, C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic reports. (Jun 16 — 0d ago) [NEW] Hunter Greene (Starting Pitcher) — Elbow (Right): Greene (elbow) is slated to begin a rehab assignment Thursday in the rookie-level Arizona Complex League, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports. (Jun 14 — 3d ago) [KNOWN] Graham Ashcraft (RP) — Elbow (Right): Ashcraft (elbow) received a platelet-rich plasma injection Tuesday, MLB.com reports. (Jun 3 — 14d ago) [KNOWN] Ke'Bryan Hayes (3B) — Back (Not Specified): Hayes is out of the lineup for Wednesday's game against the Phillies. (May 22 — 25d ago) [KNOWN] Brandon Williamson (Starting Pitcher) — Shoulder (Left): The Reds transferred Williamson (shoulder) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Wednesday. (May 8 — 40d ago) Mets: [NEW] Christian Arroyo (Second Baseman) — Undisclosed (Not Specified): The Mets re-signed Arroyo to a minor-league contract Tuesday. (Jun 17 — 0d ago) [NEW] Francisco Lindor (Shortstop) — Calf (Left): Lindor (calf) played three innings in a simulated game Friday, and he could begin an official rehab assignment Monday, MLB.com reports. (Jun 16 — 1d ago) [NEW] Ronny Mauricio (SS) — Thumb (Left): Mauricio (thumb) could begin a rehab assignment later this week, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports. (Jun 15 — 1d ago) [NEW] Jorge Polanco (Second Baseman) — Achilles (Left): An MRI on Polanco's left ankle/Achilles tendon came back negative Tuesday, Andrew Tredinnick of The Bergen Record reports. (Jun 15 — 1d ago) [NEW] Christian Scott (SP) — Hip (Right): The Mets placed Scott on the 15-day injured list Monday due to a right hip impingement. (Jun 15 — 1d ago) [KNOWN] Luis Robert Jr. (Center Fielder) — Back (Not Specified): Robert (spine) said Thursday that his back has been responding better in recent days and he expects to return before the end of this season, Chelsea Janes of SNY.tv reports. (Jun 11 — 5d ago) [KNOWN] Tyrone Taylor (CF) — Hip (Right): Taylor (hip) began running this past week but has yet to resume full baseball activities, Tim Britton of The Athletic reports. (Jun 8 — 9d ago) [KNOWN] Brandon Waddell (Relief Pitcher) — Undisclosed (Not Specified): Waddell (shoulder) picked up the win after allowing three runs on four hits while striking out two across three innings during Saturday's game against Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes Barre. (May 31 — 16d ago) [KNOWN] Clay Holmes (SP) — Leg (Right): The Mets transferred Holmes (fibula) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Tuesday. (May 19 — 28d ago) [KNOWN] Kevin Herget (Relief Pitcher) — Undisclosed (Not Specified): Herget signed a minor league contract that includes an invitation to spring training with the Mets on Thursday, Will Sammon of The Athletic reports. (May 8 — 40d ago) [KNOWN] Justin Hagenman (Relief Pitcher) — Ribs (Not Specified): The Mets placed Hagenman on the 60-day injured list Saturday due to a rib fracture. (May 8 — 40d ago)
About this analysis
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- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Board stored June 17, 2026 at 10:03 AM ET.
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- The displayed line is the value retained with the call. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, fanatics, caesars, betmgm, draftkings, betrivers.
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Props on this game
4Juan SotoOVER 0.5 Home Runs Home Runs+265
LActual 0
Juan Soto enters this matchup in an elite statistical position to exploit Nick Lodolo's most glaring weakness. Lodolo has been historically vulnerable to left-handed hitters this season, surrendering a .400 batting average and an OPS over 1.000 to the platoon.
Furthermore, Lodolo's peripheral metrics (6.14 xERA) suggest he has been fortunate even with his elevated 5.21 ERA, particularly regarding the 8 home runs he has surrendered in just 38 innings. Soto has already homered off Lodolo in their limited head-to-head history and possesses 15 home runs on the season.
The environment at Great American Ball Park is a significant multiplier today, with high heat and double-digit winds blowing out toward right field, creating a scenario where fly balls are highly likely to carry for extra bases. Soto bats third in a lineup that will maximize his plate appearances against a pitcher whose sinker is currently yielding a .524 xwOBA.
Bo BichetteOVER 0.5 Home Runs Home Runs+380
LActual 0
Bo Bichette is currently in his best offensive stretch of the season, recording multi-hit games in each of his last five outings (11 total hits) and launching two home runs during that span. He faces a struggling Nick Lodolo who allows a high 10.2% Barrel rate and has been consistently tagged by right-handed hitters for an .830 OPS.
Great American Ball Park is statistically the friendliest venue in MLB for right-handed power hitters, and the extreme weather conditions (102 degrees) will further aid ball travel. Bichette has historically thrived in this environment, carrying a career .500 batting average at this stadium.
Given Lodolo's tendency to allow home runs at a rate of one every 4.75 innings and Bichette's elite contact quality over the last week, the shortstop is a prime candidate to clear the fences in the series finale.
Juan SotoOVER 1.5 Total Bases Total Bases+100
WActual 4
Juan Soto enters this matchup with a massive statistical advantage against Nick Lodolo. While left-on-left matchups are usually pitcher-friendly, Lodolo has been an extreme outlier this season, surrendering a .400 batting average to left-handed hitters.
Soto has already capitalized on this specific matchup in his career, having homered off Lodolo in limited samples. Furthermore, Lodolo is a prime regression candidate; his 6.14 xERA suggests he is giving up significantly better contact than his 5.21 ERA reflects.
Soto has recorded multi-hit games in three of his last five outings and should see high-leverage at-bats in Great American Ball Park, which carries a hitter-friendly 1.10 park factor.
Nathaniel LoweUNDER 1.5 H+R+RBI H+R+RBI-134
WActual 1
Nathaniel Lowe has struggled to generate counting stats recently, going under this 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs line in four of his last five games. During this stretch, he has failed to record a single RBI.
He faces Nolan McLean, who has been highly effective at neutralizing left-handed power, holding lefties to a .226 average and a sub-.700 OPS. McLean's high strikeout rate (10.4 K/9) and ability to limit baserunners (1.14 WHIP) create a low-floor environment for a hitter currently struggling to find consistency.
While the venue is hitter-friendly, Lowe's lack of production in RBI situations makes the under the more probable outcome.
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