MLB · Sat, Jun 13 · 3:07 PM

Yankees at Blue Jays

O/U 7.5 · RL Yankees -1.5 · Rogers Centre

GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Blue Jays· -118

It is a gorgeous Saturday afternoon at the Rogers Centre as the Toronto Blue Jays host the New York Yankees in a high-stakes American League East showdown. This ALDS rematch is already bubbling with intensity, but the value today lies squarely with the visiting Yankees at a very reasonable price. The main catalyst for this pick is the devastating news for the Blue Jays: franchise anchor Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is out of today's lineup due to lower back tightness, joined on the sidelines by Daulton Varsho (wrist inflammation). Without their primary source of run production, Toronto’s depleted lineup faces a monumental task against Cam Schlittler. On the other side, the Yankees are perfectly configured to punish Kevin Gausman. New York is stacking seven left-handed or switch hitters today to exploit Gausman’s pronounced platoon vulnerability, as lefties have hit him for a .688 OPS compared to .630 by right-handed batters. With warm 71°F weather and an 11 mph wind blowing directly out to right field, left-handed power threats like Ben Rice—who boasts a massive 1.041 OPS against right-handed pitching—are primed to drive the ball deep. While the market might be overpaying for a fragile number regarding Schlittler's shiny 1.87 ERA versus his 2.76 xERA, his elite 97.7 mph fastball and high-whiff slider (34% whiff rate) give him more than enough raw stuff to stifle a compromised Blue Jays offense. Furthermore, the bullpen situation strongly favors the Bronx Bombers. Toronto’s elite closer Louis Varland and setup man Tyler Rogers are heavily fatigued after working two of the last three days, leaving their relief bridge highly vulnerable. In contrast, the Yankees boast a completely rested David Bednar and a dominant Fernando Cruz (2.08 ERA) to close the door. Expect the Yankees to exploit Gausman's platoon splits, capitalize on Toronto's key absences, and bounce back to even the series.

The pick & result

Published pick: Yankees ML -118
Published odds: -118
Result: Won
Final score: 3-1

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

The read

The main catalyst for this pick is the devastating news for the Blue Jays: franchise anchor Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is out of today's lineup due to lower back tightness, joined on the sidelines by Daulton Varsho (wrist inflammation). Without their primary source of run production, Toronto’s depleted lineup faces a monumental task against Cam Schlittler. On the other side, the Yankees are perfectly configured to punish Kevin Gausman. New York is stacking seven left-handed or switch hitters today to exploit Gausman’s pronounced platoon vulnerability, as lefties have hit him for a .688 OPS compared to .630 by right-handed batters. With warm 71°F weather and an 11 mph wind blowing directly out to right field, left-handed power threats like Ben Rice—who boasts a massive 1.041 OPS against right-handed pitching—are primed to drive the ball deep.

While the market might be overpaying for a fragile number regarding Schlittler's shiny 1.87 ERA versus his 2.76 xERA, his elite 97.7 mph fastball and high-whiff slider (34% whiff rate) give him more than enough raw stuff to stifle a compromised Blue Jays offense. Furthermore, the bullpen situation strongly favors the Bronx Bombers. Toronto’s elite closer Louis Varland and setup man Tyler Rogers are heavily fatigued after working two of the last three days, leaving their relief bridge highly vulnerable. In contrast, the Yankees boast a completely rested David Bednar and a dominant Fernando Cruz (2.08 ERA) to close the door. Expect the Yankees to exploit Gausman's platoon splits, capitalize on Toronto's key absences, and bounce back to even the series.

Injuries noted

Blue Jays: [NEW] Addison Barger (RF) — Elbow (Right): The Blue Jays are hoping to send Barger (elbow) on a rehab assignment next week, Mitch Bannon of The Athletic reports. (Jun 12 — 0d ago) [NEW] Daulton Varsho (CF) — Wrist (Left): The Blue Jays placed Varsho on the 10-day injured list Friday, retroactive to June 10, with left wrist inflammation. (Jun 12 — 0d ago) [NEW] Lazaro Estrada (Unspecified Position) — Shoulder (Right): Estrada (shoulder) struck out three over three perfect innings of relief Sunday in a rehab appearance with Triple-A Buffalo. (Jun 9 — 3d ago) [KNOWN] Joe Mantiply (RP) — Knee (Left): Mantiply will undergo arthroscopic surgery to repair some damage in his left knee, Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet.ca reports. (Jun 3 — 9d ago) [KNOWN] Lenyn Sosa (2B) — Wrist (Right): Sosa went 2-for-5 with a solo home run, an additional run and an additional RBI on Saturday against the Twins in an 11-4 victory. (May 28 — 15d ago) [KNOWN] Jose Berrios (Starting Pitcher) — Elbow (Right): Blue Jays manager John Schneider said that Berrios underwent full Tommy John surgery Wednesday in addition to having a stress fracture repaired, Hazel Mae of Sportsnet reports. (May 27 — 17d ago) [KNOWN] Cody Ponce (Starting Pitcher) — Knee (Right): Ponce underwent surgery Friday to repair the ACL in his right knee, Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet.ca reports. (May 8 — 36d ago) Yankees: [NEW] Trent Grisham (CF) — Hamstring (Right): Grisham was removed from Friday's game against the Blue Jays with right hamstring tightness, Gary Phillips of the New York Daily News reports. (Jun 13 — 0d ago) [NEW] Max Fried (SP) — Elbow (Left): Yankees manager Aaron Boone said Friday that Fried (elbow) will throw off a mound Saturday, Gary Phillips of the New York Daily News reports. (Jun 12 — 0d ago) [NEW] Austin Wells (C) — Head: Yankees manager Aaron Boone said Friday that the team will wait until after the weekend series against the Blue Jays before deciding whether Wells (head) will be activated off the 10-day injured list or embark on a rehab assignment, Chris Kirschner of The Athletic reports. (Jun 12 — 0d ago) [KNOWN] Aaron Judge (RF) — Ribs (Right): The Yankees announced Thursday that Judge has a stress fracture of his first rib on his right side and will be sidelined for 4-to-6 weeks before being re-evaluated, Bryan Hoch of MLB.com reports. (Jun 5 — 7d ago) [KNOWN] Giancarlo Stanton (Designated Hitter) — Calf (Right): Yankees manager Aaron Boone said Thursday that Stanton (calf) will not be activated from the 10-day injured list during the team's June 8-14 road trip, Bryan Hoch of MLB.com reports. (Jun 4 — 9d ago)

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

BATTER VS ARM

Kevin Gausman has held Jazz Chisholm Jr. to 1-for-15 with 5 K
1-for-15
Jazz Chisholm Jr. has managed only 1-for-15 (.067) off Kevin Gausman, striking out 5 times in 15 career at-bats — they meet again tonight.

PARK WEATHER

Wind blowing out 11 mph at Rogers Centre tonight
OUT 11
Conditions at Rogers Centre: Sunny, 71°, wind 11 mph, Out To CF. Fly balls that die most nights have a chance to go tonight. The total sits at 4.25.

SITUATIONAL

12.7 bullpen innings in 3 games for TOR
12.7
Relievers have absorbed 12.7 innings over the last 3 games (Mason Fluharty (2.7) and Jeff Hoffman (2) the heaviest). NYY's pen has thrown 11.7 over the same span.

REGRESSION

Ernie Clement is hitting .306, but his xBA is .254
.254
Across 279 plate appearances, Ernie Clement carries a .306 average versus a .254 xBA. His wOBA sits at .344 against a .273 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit below what he has actually posted.

All research from this day

About this analysis

Who made it: Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data: Daily picks first stored June 13, 2026 at 10:10 AM ET.
Odds record: The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, fanatics, caesars, draftkings, betmgm, betrivers.
Accountability: Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.

Props on this game

GARY'S PICK
BEN RICEWALKS OVER 0.5
MLBYankees· +136
LOST · ACTUAL 0
Ben Rice enters this matchup in the leadoff spot, maximizing his opportunities to see Kevin Gausman. While Gausman is known for elite control (4.5% walk rate), Rice has demonstrated a specific ability to lay off his splitter, drawing 4 walks in just 10 official at-bats (14 total PAs) against him. Rice’s recent form supports this patient approach, as he has secured a walk in 60% of his last 10 games. With Gausman surrendering 8 earned runs over his last 11.0 innings, he may be forced to pitch more tentatively against the top of the Yankees' order, providing Rice with multiple chances to clear this line.
Ben Rice
Walks over 0.5
+136 · LOST · ACTUAL 0
Yankees
Ben Rice enters this matchup in the leadoff spot, maximizing his opportunities to see Kevin Gausman. While Gausman is known for elite control (4.5% walk rate), Rice has demonstrated a specific ability to lay off his splitter, drawing 4 walks in just 10 official at-bats (14 total PAs) against him. Rice’s recent form supports this patient approach, as he has secured a walk in 60% of his last 10 games. With Gausman surrendering 8 earned runs over his last 11.0 innings, he may be forced to pitch more tentatively against the top of the Yankees' order, providing Rice with multiple chances to clear this line.
GARY'S PICK
JESUS SANCHEZHITS OVER 0.5
MLBBlue Jays· -157
LOST · ACTUAL 0
Jesus Sanchez has been one of Toronto's most consistent contact hitters recently, logging hits in four of his last five outings, including three multi-hit games. He matches up very well against RHP Cam Schlittler; Sanchez hits .313 against righties, and Schlittler, despite his Cy Young candidacy, has historically been solved by this Blue Jays core. The Toronto lineup boasts a .339 career average against Schlittler, and with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. out of the lineup, Sanchez will be relied upon in the cleanup spot to provide stability. Schlittler's xERA of 2.76 compared to his 1.87 actual ERA further suggests that a regression toward more hits allowed is imminent, especially in a hostile Rogers Centre environment.
Jesus Sanchez
Hits over 0.5
-157 · LOST · ACTUAL 0
Blue Jays
Jesus Sanchez has been one of Toronto's most consistent contact hitters recently, logging hits in four of his last five outings, including three multi-hit games. He matches up very well against RHP Cam Schlittler; Sanchez hits .313 against righties, and Schlittler, despite his Cy Young candidacy, has historically been solved by this Blue Jays core.
The Toronto lineup boasts a .339 career average against Schlittler, and with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. out of the lineup, Sanchez will be relied upon in the cleanup spot to provide stability.
Schlittler's xERA of 2.76 compared to his 1.87 actual ERA further suggests that a regression toward more hits allowed is imminent, especially in a hostile Rogers Centre environment.
THE LONG SHOT
CODY BELLINGERTOTAL BASES UNDER 1.5
MLBYankees· -115
✓ CASHED · ACTUAL 1
Cody Bellinger faces an uphill battle against Kevin Gausman, a pitcher who has historically dominated him. In 22 career at-bats against the veteran right-hander, Bellinger has managed just two hits, resulting in a .091 batting average. This head-to-head suppression is a major factor today, especially with the Yankees missing their premier offensive threats, Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton. Without these sluggers to provide protection in the order, Gausman can be more surgical in his approach to Bellinger, who is the centerpiece of the current lineup. While Bellinger has shown some recent production, he has failed to clear 1.5 total bases in 6 of his last 10 games. Gausman's splitter-heavy mix is designed to neutralize hitters with Bellinger's profile, and the career results suggest Bellinger has yet to find an answer.
Cody Bellinger
Total Bases under 1.5
-115 · CASHED · ACTUAL 1
Yankees
Cody Bellinger faces an uphill battle against Kevin Gausman, a pitcher who has historically dominated him. In 22 career at-bats against the veteran right-hander, Bellinger has managed just two hits, resulting in a .091 batting average.
This head-to-head suppression is a major factor today, especially with the Yankees missing their premier offensive threats, Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton. Without these sluggers to provide protection in the order, Gausman can be more surgical in his approach to Bellinger, who is the centerpiece of the current lineup.
While Bellinger has shown some recent production, he has failed to clear 1.5 total bases in 6 of his last 10 games. Gausman's splitter-heavy mix is designed to neutralize hitters with Bellinger's profile, and the career results suggest Bellinger has yet to find an answer.
THE LONG SHOT
ERNIE CLEMENTH+R+RBI OVER 1.5
MLBBlue Jays· -110
LOST · ACTUAL 1
Ernie Clement is currently the most consistent bat in the Blue Jays' lineup, entering this contest with a .341 average and 14 hits over his last 10 games. He has cleared the 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs line in 7 of his last 10 outings, including a two-hit performance in yesterday's series opener. Today's matchup against Cam Schlittler, while daunting on paper due to Schlittler's 1.87 season ERA, presents a unique historical advantage for Toronto. The Blue Jays are one of the few teams to consistently solve Schlittler, hitting .339 against him in 59 career at-bats. Schlittler's career 5.68 ERA against Toronto is a stark contrast to his league-wide dominance. Clement, hitting 5th in the confirmed lineup, will have ample opportunities to drive in runs or score, especially given his proficiency against right-handers (.318 AVG).
Ernie Clement
H+R+RBI over 1.5
-110 · LOST · ACTUAL 1
Blue Jays
Ernie Clement is currently the most consistent bat in the Blue Jays' lineup, entering this contest with a .341 average and 14 hits over his last 10 games. He has cleared the 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs line in 7 of his last 10 outings, including a two-hit performance in yesterday's series opener.
Today's matchup against Cam Schlittler, while daunting on paper due to Schlittler's 1.87 season ERA, presents a unique historical advantage for Toronto. The Blue Jays are one of the few teams to consistently solve Schlittler, hitting .339 against him in 59 career at-bats.
Schlittler's career 5.68 ERA against Toronto is a stark contrast to his league-wide dominance. Clement, hitting 5th in the confirmed lineup, will have ample opportunities to drive in runs or score, especially given his proficiency against right-handers (.318 AVG).

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