Yankees at Blue Jays
O/U 8 · RL Blue Jays -1.5 · Rogers Centre
The pick & result
- Published pick
- Blue Jays ML -112
- Published odds
- -112
- Result
- Won
- Final score
- 5-8
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
The read
AL East rivals collide under the closed roof of the Rogers Centre tonight as the New York Yankees (41-26, 22-14 away) visit the Toronto Blue Jays (33-36, 20-16 home). While the high-flying Yankees are currently priced as near coin-flips on the road, the pitching matchup reveals a massive opportunity to back the home team. Blue Jays rookie Trey Yesavage (2-3, 3.16 ERA, 1.17 WHIP) is underperforming his elite underlying metrics, possessing a stellar 2.79 xERA and a miniscule 4.6% Barrel% allowed. His primary weapon, a dominant splitter with a 44.9% whiff rate, completely neutralizes heavy lineups. On the other side, Yankees southpaw Ryan Weathers (2-4, 3.86 ERA, 1.16 WHIP) is a high-wire act trending toward regression with a 4.19 xERA, an 11.8% Barrel% allowed, and serious fatigue concerns after eclipsing his entire 2025 workload with 70.0 innings already pitched.
The roster shifts today tilt the scales even further in Toronto's direction. The Blue Jays officially activated star catcher Alejandro Kirk today, immediately inserting his elite pitch framing and game-calling behind the plate to guide Yesavage, whereas the Yankees must run out backup J.C. Escarra due to Austin Wells' absence. Despite placing centerfielder Daulton Varsho on the IL today, the Blue Jays' defense remains highly capable with Myles Straw patrolling the outfield. Tactically, the Blue Jays' right-handed-heavy lineup is primed to exploit Weathers. Although Weathers holds righties to a .212 batting average, he has surrendered 11 of his 13 home runs this season to right-handed hitters, making him highly vulnerable to Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and the newly activated Kirk inside a controlled stadium environment. Meanwhile, Yankees breakout Ben Rice (1.005 OPS, 18 HR) must find a way to navigate Yesavage's elite secondary pitches without his usual protection.
The Yankees' primary case rests on their hot recent form (6-4 over their last 10 games compared to Toronto's 4-6) and their active four-game winning streak. However, Yesavage already proved he has the blueprint to stifle this offense, having tossed 6.0 shutout innings with 8 strikeouts against them on May 20. If this contest remains close late, Toronto's bullpen features a massive rest and talent disparity. Closer Louis Varland (0.50 ERA, 11 saves) is fully fresh and available, giving the Blue Jays a lock-down option that the Yankees' taxed relief corps—anchored by the inconsistent David Bednar (3.90 ERA, 1.41 WHIP)—simply cannot match. Back the Blue Jays at home where their pitching and tactical edges will shine.
Injuries noted
Blue Jays: [NEW] Daulton Varsho (CF) — Wrist (Left): The Blue Jays placed Varsho on the 10-day injured list with left wrist inflammation. (Jun 12 — 0d ago) [NEW] Lazaro Estrada (Unspecified Position) — Shoulder (Right): Estrada (shoulder) struck out three over three perfect innings of relief Sunday in a rehab appearance with Triple-A Buffalo. (Jun 9 — 3d ago) [KNOWN] Addison Barger (RF) — Elbow (Right): Blue Jays manager John Schneider said Monday that Barger (elbow) is "making progress" while continuing to ramp up his hitting at the team's complex in Florida, Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca reports. (Jun 8 — 4d ago) [KNOWN] Joe Mantiply (RP) — Knee (Left): Mantiply will undergo arthroscopic surgery to repair some damage in his left knee, Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet.ca reports. (Jun 3 — 8d ago) [KNOWN] Lenyn Sosa (2B) — Wrist (Right): Sosa went 2-for-5 with a solo home run, an additional run and an additional RBI on Saturday against the Twins in an 11-4 victory. (May 28 — 15d ago) [KNOWN] Jose Berrios (Starting Pitcher) — Elbow (Right): Blue Jays manager John Schneider said that Berrios underwent full Tommy John surgery Wednesday in addition to having a stress fracture repaired, Hazel Mae of Sportsnet reports. (May 27 — 16d ago) [KNOWN] Cody Ponce (Starting Pitcher) — Knee (Right): Ponce underwent surgery Friday to repair the ACL in his right knee, Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet.ca reports. (May 8 — 35d ago) Yankees: [NEW] Austin Wells (C) — Head: Wells (head) will resume baseball activities at Yankee Stadium on Wednesday, Brendan Kuty of The Athletic reports. (Jun 10 — 2d ago) [KNOWN] Max Fried (SP) — Elbow (Left): Fried (elbow) is expected to begin throwing from 120 feet and will also undergo more imaging during the upcoming week, Gary Phillips of the New York Daily News reports. (Jun 7 — 5d ago) [KNOWN] Aaron Judge (RF) — Ribs (Right): The Yankees announced Thursday that Judge has a stress fracture of his first rib on his right side and will be sidelined for 4-to-6 weeks before being re-evaluated, Bryan Hoch of MLB.com reports. (Jun 5 — 7d ago) [KNOWN] Jasson Dominguez (LF) — Shoulder (Left): Dominguez (shoulder) will begin a rehab assignment Friday, Greg Joyce of the New York Post reports. (Jun 4 — 8d ago) [KNOWN] Giancarlo Stanton (Designated Hitter) — Calf (Right): Yankees manager Aaron Boone said Thursday that Stanton (calf) will not be activated from the 10-day injured list during the team's June 8-14 road trip, Bryan Hoch of MLB.com reports. (Jun 4 — 8d ago)
The research
The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.
STARTER FORM
Trey Yesavage is getting hit: 6.23 ERA over his last 3 starts
6.23Across his last 3 starts (17.3 IP) he has been tagged for 12 earned runs — a 6.23 ERA with a 1.33 WHIP (1.17 season) against a 3.16 season mark.
BALLPARK
Trey Yesavage's ERA jumps to 4.57 at Rogers Centre
4.57Trey Yesavage carries a 4.57 ERA over 4 games (21.7 IP) at tonight's park vs 1.71 across 21 innings everywhere else. Hitters bat .225 off him here. He starts here tonight.
SITUATIONAL
14.7 bullpen innings in 3 games for TOR
14.7Relievers have absorbed 14.7 innings over the last 3 games (Simeon Woods Richardson (4) and Tommy Nance (2) the heaviest). NYY's pen has thrown 13.7 over the same span.
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Daily picks first stored June 12, 2026 at 1:36 PM ET.
- Odds record
- The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanatics, draftkings, betmgm, caesars, fanduel, betrivers.
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Props on this game
2- GARY'S PICKVLADIMIR GUERRERO JR.H+R+RBI UNDER 1.5
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is currently mired in a significant offensive slump, batting just .158 (6-for-38) over his last 10 games with zero home runs.
Tonight's matchup against Ryan Weathers is statistically unfavorable despite the platoon advantage; Weathers has been dominant against right-handed hitters this season, holding them to a .212 average and a .675 OPS. Furthermore, environmental factors at Rogers Centre will heavily suppress Guerrero's production.
With 15 mph winds blowing directly in from left field, pull-side power—the source of most of Guerrero's extra-base damage—will be mitigated. Guerrero has failed to record more than 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs in four of his last five games, and given the pitcher's efficiency against righties and the adverse weather, he is likely to continue that trend tonight.
- GARY'S PICKGEORGE SPRINGERH+R+RBI UNDER 1.5
George Springer continues to struggle with consistency in 2026, entering this contest with a .204 season average and an even lower .179 mark over his last 10 games. While he occupies the leadoff spot, his lack of high-quality contact makes clearing a 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs line difficult.
He faces Ryan Weathers, who has been highly effective against right-handed bats (.212 BAA). Similar to his teammate Guerrero Jr., Springer's offensive profile is negatively impacted by the 15 mph wind blowing in from left field, which will keep potential extra-base hits in the park.
Springer has gone under this 1.5 total in three of his last five games, and the combination of a difficult pitching matchup and power-suppressing weather makes the under the high-value choice at even money.
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