MLB · Fri, Jun 12 · 7:15 PM

Diamondbacks at Reds

O/U 9.5 · RL Diamondbacks -1.5 · Great American Ball Park

GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Reds· -104

Under the bright national spotlight of Apple TV+, two ice-cold National League teams clash tonight at Great American Ball Park as the Arizona Diamondbacks open a three-game series against the Cincinnati Reds. Both teams enter tonight reeling with identical 3-7 records over their last 10 games, desperately seeking a spark to get back on track. In a matchup where the margins are razor-thin, the value lies squarely with the Diamondbacks on the moneyline, thanks to a massive starting pitching discrepancy and a critical roster development. The biggest factor in tonight's game is the confirmed absence of Reds superstar Elly De La Cruz, who will rest his hamstring this weekend. The Reds' offense has looked completely lost without their engine, sputtering to a 2-7 record in their last nine games without him and carrying a meager .221 home batting average on the season. While the market might worry about Eduardo Rodriguez's regression potential—the market is certainly overpaying for his shiny 2.52 ERA given his much more fragile 4.64 xERA—that risk is completely neutralized by Nick Lodolo’s catastrophic profile. Lodolo’s 5.51 ERA is backed by an even more fragile 6.64 xERA, and he has walked 13 batters in his last 27.1 innings since returning from injury. In GABP's hot, 81-degree air with an 8 mph wind blowing straight out to center field, Lodolo’s fly-ball tendency (0.89 GO/AO) and elevated 11.9% barrel rate are a recipe for disaster. The strongest case against Arizona is their own offensive blackout, having hit just .198 over their last 13 games. However, Lodolo’s extreme platoon deficiency is the perfect "get-right" remedy. Lodolo is a massive liability against left-handed hitting, allowing a .394 AVG and 1.033 OPS to southpaws. This is a nightmare matchup against Corbin Carroll, who is hitting .410 with a 1.152 OPS against lefties this season and absolutely crushes Lodolo’s primary sinker pitch. If Lodolo is chased early, he turns the game over to a heavily taxed Cincinnati bullpen missing three of its top high-leverage arms. Arizona, conversely, has a stable bullpen backed by Paul Sewald (15 saves, 0.74 WHIP) to secure the late innings. Expect Carroll and the Diamondbacks to exploit this matchup and snap their losing streak.

The biggest factor in tonight's game is the confirmed absence of Reds superstar Elly De La Cruz, who will rest his hamstring this weekend. The Reds' offense has looked completely lost without their engine, sputtering to a 2-7 record in their last nine games without him and carrying a meager .221 home batting average on the season. While the market might worry about Eduardo Rodriguez's regression potential—the market is certainly overpaying for his shiny 2.52 ERA given his much more fragile 4.64 xERA—that risk is completely neutralized by Nick Lodolo’s catastrophic profile. Lodolo’s 5.51 ERA is backed by an even more fragile 6.64 xERA, and he has walked 13 batters in his last 27.1 innings since returning from injury. In GABP's hot, 81-degree air with an 8 mph wind blowing straight out to center field, Lodolo’s fly-ball tendency (0.89 GO/AO) and elevated 11.9% barrel rate are a recipe for disaster.

The strongest case against Arizona is their own offensive blackout, having hit just .198 over their last 13 games. However, Lodolo’s extreme platoon deficiency is the perfect "get-right" remedy. Lodolo is a massive liability against left-handed hitting, allowing a .394 AVG and 1.033 OPS to southpaws. This is a nightmare matchup against Corbin Carroll, who is hitting .410 with a 1.152 OPS against lefties this season and absolutely crushes Lodolo’s primary sinker pitch. If Lodolo is chased early, he turns the game over to a heavily taxed Cincinnati bullpen missing three of its top high-leverage arms. Arizona, conversely, has a stable bullpen backed by Paul Sewald (15 saves, 0.74 WHIP) to secure the late innings. Expect Carroll and the Diamondbacks to exploit this matchup and snap their losing streak.

The pick & result

Published pick: Diamondbacks ML -104
Published odds: -104
Result: Won
Final score: 5-2

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

The read

Injuries noted

Reds: [NEW] Elly De La Cruz (SS) — Hamstring (Right): Reds manager Terry Francona said Friday that an MRI showed De La Cruz's right hamstring strain to be 90 percent healed, Charlie Clifford of NBC 5 Cincinnati reports. (Jun 12 — 0d ago) [NEW] Jose Trevino (C) — Hamstring (Left): Trevino (hamstring) will make one final rehab appearance for Triple-A Louisville before being activated Friday, MLB.com reports. (Jun 9 — 3d ago) [KNOWN] Emilio Pagan (RP) — Hamstring (Left): Pagan (hamstring) will be re-assessed for strength deficit on Monday, MLB.com reports. (Jun 8 — 4d ago) [KNOWN] Pierce Johnson (RP) — Elbow (Right): Johnson (elbow) is expected to toss a bullpen session Tuesday, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports. (Jun 7 — 5d ago) [KNOWN] Hunter Greene (Starting Pitcher) — Elbow (Right): Reds manager Terry Francona told reporters Saturday that Greene (elbow) could return from the 60-day injured list prior to the All-Star break, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports. (Jun 6 — 6d ago) [KNOWN] Graham Ashcraft (RP) — Elbow (Right): Ashcraft (elbow) received a platelet-rich plasma injection Tuesday, MLB.com reports. (Jun 3 — 9d ago) [KNOWN] Ke'Bryan Hayes (3B) — Back: Hayes is out of the lineup for Wednesday's game against the Phillies. (May 22 — 21d ago) [KNOWN] Brandon Williamson (Starting Pitcher) — Shoulder (Left): The Reds transferred Williamson (shoulder) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Wednesday. (May 8 — 35d ago) Diamondbacks: [NEW] Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (LF) — Hamstring (Left): Gurriel (hamstring) began a rehab assignment in the rookie-level Arizona Complex League Monday, going 1-for-4 with an RBI single. (Jun 9 — 3d ago) [KNOWN] Carlos Santana (First Baseman) — Thigh (Right): Santana (thigh) began a rehab assignment in the Arizona Complex League on Friday, Alex Weiner of Arizona Sports reports. (Jun 7 — 5d ago) [KNOWN] James McCann (C) — Quadriceps (Right): McCann (quad) has started taking machine batting practice and doing catching drills, Alex Weiner of Arizona Sports reports. (Jun 3 — 9d ago) [KNOWN] Jeff Brigham (Relief Pitcher) — Undisclosed (Not Specified): Brigham was placed on the 7-day injured list at Triple-A St. Paul, retroactive to April 6, with a left oblique strain, TwinsDaily.com reports. (May 8 — 35d ago)

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

PLATOON EDGE

Corbin Carroll (bats L) gets a LHP from the 2nd spot
1.152
Corbin Carroll's vs. Left line (1.152 OPS, 78 AB) sits well above his .810 mark the other way (161 AB). Tonight's starter Nick Lodolo throws LHP, the hand he hits best.
Spencer Steer (bats R) draws Eduardo Rodriguez (LHP), batting 4th
1.061
Spencer Steer carries a 1.061 OPS vs. Left (57 AB) against .679 the other way (173 AB), and faces LHP Eduardo Rodriguez from the 4th spot — a split his blended season line may not reflect.

HEAT CHECK

Matt McLain is scorching: 1.055 OPS in Last 15 Days
1.055
The last 15 days sample runs 29 PA: a 1.055 OPS versus .678 for the season, 0.377 above his norm. He has 8 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 0.5.

COOLING OFF

Ildemaro Vargas cold (.256 OPS, L15) — draws LHP Nick Lodolo
.256
Ildemaro Vargas's .256 OPS over the last 15 days (30 PA) trails his .737 season mark, down 0.481. Tonight he draws LHP Nick Lodolo — his stronger side: a .942 OPS vs LHP across 69 AB.
Ketel Marte cold (.477 OPS, L15) — draws LHP Nick Lodolo
.477
Ketel Marte's .477 OPS over the last 15 days (48 PA) trails his .741 season mark, down 0.264. Tonight he draws LHP Nick Lodolo — his stronger side: a .826 OPS vs LHP across 72 AB.

HR THREAT

Sal Stewart to clear a fence
+305
Sal Stewart is the most dangerous power threat in the Reds lineup, leading the team with 13 home runs. He excels in the platoon matchup tonight against southpaw Eduardo Rodriguez, carrying a .954 OPS and hitting a home run every 11.2 at-bats against lefties this season.
Corbin Carroll to clear a fence
+370
Corbin Carroll has found a massive power surge recently, hitting four home runs over his last 10 games. Tonight he faces a historically favorable matchup; despite being a left-handed hitter, Carroll is slashing .410 with a 1.152 OPS against left-handed pitchers this season.

BALLPARK

Nick Lodolo's ERA jumps to 6.75 at Great American Ball Park
6.75
Nick Lodolo carries a 6.75 ERA over 3 games (16 IP) at tonight's park vs 4.32 across 16.7 innings everywhere else. Hitters bat .271 off him here. He starts here tonight.

REPLACEMENT

James McCann (C) is out for ARI — Gabriel Moreno starts in his place tonight
.768
Quadriceps; On the injury report for 9 days; Gabriel Moreno bats 3rd tonight and carries a .768 OPS / .260 AVG this season.
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (LF) is out for ARI — Ryan Waldschmidt starts in his place tonight
.680
With Lourdes Gurriel Jr. out (Hamstring; on the injury report for 3 days), Ryan Waldschmidt draws the start at LF and bats 9th tonight and carries a .680 OPS / .267 AVG this season.

REGRESSION

Eduardo Rodriguez: 2.52 ERA vs 4.64 xERA
4.64
Eduardo Rodriguez carries a 2.52 ERA against a 4.64 expected ERA (2.12 run gap), so he has been outperforming his contact quality. Opponents hit .224 off him vs a .265 expected (xBA). Most lines price off his season ERA, which may not reflect that gap.
Blake Dunn's .290 AVG hides a .238 xBA
.238
Blake Dunn is hitting .290 against a .238 expected average (xBA) over 107 plate appearances. His wOBA sits at .331 against a .272 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit below what he has actually posted.
Ketel Marte is hitting .248 with a .300 expected
.300
Across 281 plate appearances, Ketel Marte carries a .248 average versus a .300 xBA. His wOBA sits at .322 against a .370 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit above what he has actually posted.

All research from this day

About this analysis

Who made it: Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data: Daily picks first stored June 12, 2026 at 1:36 PM ET.
Odds record: The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, fanatics, caesars, draftkings, betmgm, betrivers.
Accountability: Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.

Props on this game

THE LONG SHOT
SAL STEWARTHR OVER 0.5
MLBReds· +305
LOST · ACTUAL 0
Sal Stewart is the most dangerous power threat in the Reds lineup, leading the team with 13 home runs. He excels in the platoon matchup tonight against southpaw Eduardo Rodriguez, carrying a .954 OPS and hitting a home run every 11.2 at-bats against lefties this season. While Rodriguez has a sparkling 2.52 ERA, his 4.64 xERA indicates he is a prime candidate for regression, having benefited from significant luck relative to the quality of contact allowed (8% Barrel% allowed). Playing in Great American Ball Park with 81-degree temperatures and an 8 mph wind blowing out to center field significantly elevates the probability of Stewart connecting for a long ball.
Sal Stewart
HR over 0.5
+305 · LOST · ACTUAL 0
Reds
Sal Stewart is the most dangerous power threat in the Reds lineup, leading the team with 13 home runs. He excels in the platoon matchup tonight against southpaw Eduardo Rodriguez, carrying a .954 OPS and hitting a home run every 11.2 at-bats against lefties this season. While Rodriguez has a sparkling 2.52 ERA, his 4.64 xERA indicates he is a prime candidate for regression, having benefited from significant luck relative to the quality of contact allowed (8% Barrel% allowed). Playing in Great American Ball Park with 81-degree temperatures and an 8 mph wind blowing out to center field significantly elevates the probability of Stewart connecting for a long ball.
THE LONG SHOT
CORBIN CARROLLHR OVER 0.5
MLBDiamondbacks· +370
LOST · ACTUAL 0
Corbin Carroll has found a massive power surge recently, hitting four home runs over his last 10 games. Tonight he faces a historically favorable matchup; despite being a left-handed hitter, Carroll is slashing .410 with a 1.152 OPS against left-handed pitchers this season. He faces Nick Lodolo, who has been exceptionally vulnerable to the platoon advantage, allowing a 1.033 OPS to left-handed hitters. Lodolo's 11.9% barrel rate is the highest among tonight's starters, which is a dangerous liability in a stadium that promotes home runs. With Carroll batting second and the wind blowing out to center, he will have high-leverage opportunities to exploit Lodolo's inability to neutralize left-handed bats.
Corbin Carroll
HR over 0.5
+370 · LOST · ACTUAL 0
Diamondbacks
Corbin Carroll has found a massive power surge recently, hitting four home runs over his last 10 games. Tonight he faces a historically favorable matchup; despite being a left-handed hitter, Carroll is slashing .410 with a 1.152 OPS against left-handed pitchers this season.
He faces Nick Lodolo, who has been exceptionally vulnerable to the platoon advantage, allowing a 1.033 OPS to left-handed hitters. Lodolo's 11.9% barrel rate is the highest among tonight's starters, which is a dangerous liability in a stadium that promotes home runs.
With Carroll batting second and the wind blowing out to center, he will have high-leverage opportunities to exploit Lodolo's inability to neutralize left-handed bats.
GARY'S PICK
CORBIN CARROLLTOTAL BASES OVER 1.5
MLBDiamondbacks· -105
LOST · ACTUAL 1
This prop targets a rare 'inverted split' that creates a massive statistical advantage. While Nick Lodolo is a southpaw, he has been catastrophic against left-handed hitters this season, surrendering a .394 batting average and a 1.033 OPS. Corbin Carroll, a left-handed hitter, conversely thrives in same-side matchups, posting an elite .410 average and 1.152 OPS against lefties in 2026. Carroll has also rediscovered his power recently, hitting four home runs in his last 10 games. Playing at Great American Ball Park—one of the most hitter-friendly environments in MLB—with 81-degree temperatures and wind blowing out to center, Carroll is in a prime position to record multiple bases via extra-base hits or multiple singles.
Corbin Carroll
Total Bases over 1.5
-105 · LOST · ACTUAL 1
Diamondbacks
This prop targets a rare 'inverted split' that creates a massive statistical advantage. While Nick Lodolo is a southpaw, he has been catastrophic against left-handed hitters this season, surrendering a .394 batting average and a 1.033 OPS.
Corbin Carroll, a left-handed hitter, conversely thrives in same-side matchups, posting an elite .410 average and 1.152 OPS against lefties in 2026. Carroll has also rediscovered his power recently, hitting four home runs in his last 10 games.
Playing at Great American Ball Park—one of the most hitter-friendly environments in MLB—with 81-degree temperatures and wind blowing out to center, Carroll is in a prime position to record multiple bases via extra-base hits or multiple singles.
GARY'S PICK
SAL STEWARTTOTAL BASES OVER 1.5
MLBReds· +110
LOST · ACTUAL 0
Sal Stewart is the Reds' premier power threat against left-handed pitching, boasting a .954 OPS vs. LHP this season. He faces Eduardo Rodriguez, whose 2.52 ERA is highly deceptive; Rodriguez's xERA of 4.64 and 8% Barrel rate allowed suggest significant regression is overdue. Stewart bats 3rd in a Reds lineup that is heavily right-handed to exploit Rodriguez's underlying vulnerabilities. Given the small dimensions of Great American Ball Park and the favorable weather conditions (81 degrees, wind out), Stewart's power profile makes him a strong candidate to clear this 1.5 line with a single extra-base hit. With Elly De La Cruz sidelined, the Reds' offensive volume will funnel through Stewart in high-leverage spots.
Sal Stewart
Total Bases over 1.5
+110 · LOST · ACTUAL 0
Reds
Sal Stewart is the Reds' premier power threat against left-handed pitching, boasting a .954 OPS vs. LHP this season.
He faces Eduardo Rodriguez, whose 2.52 ERA is highly deceptive; Rodriguez's xERA of 4.64 and 8% Barrel rate allowed suggest significant regression is overdue. Stewart bats 3rd in a Reds lineup that is heavily right-handed to exploit Rodriguez's underlying vulnerabilities.
Given the small dimensions of Great American Ball Park and the favorable weather conditions (81 degrees, wind out), Stewart's power profile makes him a strong candidate to clear this 1.5 line with a single extra-base hit. With Elly De La Cruz sidelined, the Reds' offensive volume will funnel through Stewart in high-leverage spots.

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