MLB · Tue, Jun 9 · 6:40 PM

Dodgers at Pirates

O/U 8.5 · RL Pirates -1.5 · PNC Park

GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Dodgers· -118

We have a high-stakes, star-studded affair on the North Side tonight as the reigning World Series champion Dodgers roll into PNC Park to square off against the Pirates' young phenom, Paul Skenes. This is a classic "stopper" spot for the Pirates, who are looking to snap a three-game losing streak after a sweep in Atlanta. Skenes is the ultimate stabilizer here, entering with a 3.09 ERA, a microscopic 0.91 WHIP, and a stellar 2.30 xERA that suggests his surface-level numbers are actually masking an even higher ceiling. Skenes has historically dominated Los Angeles, posting a career 3-1 record and a 2.70 ERA with 33 strikeouts in 23.1 innings against them, including a current 12.1-inning scoreless streak. Despite the Dodgers’ stack of seven left-handed hitters, Skenes is virtually platoon-proof, limiting left-handers to a measly .194 AVG and a .555 OPS this season. On the other side of the diamond, the Dodgers are trying to patch together their injury-depleted rotation with Eric Lauer. While Lauer has a tidy 2.53 ERA in two starts since joining Los Angeles, his underlying metrics paint a picture of a highly volatile soft-tosser. Lauer possesses an alarming 11.7% barrel rate allowed and a severe reverse platoon split, yielding a massive 1.062 OPS and 3 home runs to left-handed batters in only 30 at-bats. This makes him exceptionally vulnerable to Pittsburgh's elite left-handed threats, Brandon Lowe and Ryan O'Hearn, who occupy the two- and four-holes. Additionally, Lauer leans heavily toward fly balls with a GO/AO of 0.45. In tonight's unseasonably warm 82°F temperatures and an 11 mph crosswind blowing right to left, those fly balls are highly likely to travel extra distance and find the seats, especially given Lowe’s elite power metrics (.836 SLG) against the four-seam fastballs Lauer throws nearly half the time. The strongest case against Pittsburgh is the Dodgers’ sheer offensive juggernaut, which is currently blistering the baseball with an 8.5% barrel rate over their last three games, combined with the gold-standard defense (49 DRS) backing Lauer. Shohei Ohtani enters on a tear (.480 AVG in his last seven days), and Andy Pages has historically hit Skenes well. However, Skenes’ elite stuff and defensive versatility behind his personal catcher Henry Davis (52.6% caught-stealing rate) should keep the Dodgers’ run-game in check, and a fully rested Gregory Soto (2.86 ERA, 0.88 WHIP) is primed to lock down the late innings. The market is overpaying for the Dodgers' brand name and Lauer's brief two-game success, making the home-team Pirates at -118 the clear sharp play.

On the other side of the diamond, the Dodgers are trying to patch together their injury-depleted rotation with Eric Lauer. While Lauer has a tidy 2.53 ERA in two starts since joining Los Angeles, his underlying metrics paint a picture of a highly volatile soft-tosser. Lauer possesses an alarming 11.7% barrel rate allowed and a severe reverse platoon split, yielding a massive 1.062 OPS and 3 home runs to left-handed batters in only 30 at-bats. This makes him exceptionally vulnerable to Pittsburgh's elite left-handed threats, Brandon Lowe and Ryan O'Hearn, who occupy the two- and four-holes. Additionally, Lauer leans heavily toward fly balls with a GO/AO of 0.45. In tonight's unseasonably warm 82°F temperatures and an 11 mph crosswind blowing right to left, those fly balls are highly likely to travel extra distance and find the seats, especially given Lowe’s elite power metrics (.836 SLG) against the four-seam fastballs Lauer throws nearly half the time.

The strongest case against Pittsburgh is the Dodgers’ sheer offensive juggernaut, which is currently blistering the baseball with an 8.5% barrel rate over their last three games, combined with the gold-standard defense (49 DRS) backing Lauer. Shohei Ohtani enters on a tear (.480 AVG in his last seven days), and Andy Pages has historically hit Skenes well. However, Skenes’ elite stuff and defensive versatility behind his personal catcher Henry Davis (52.6% caught-stealing rate) should keep the Dodgers’ run-game in check, and a fully rested Gregory Soto (2.86 ERA, 0.88 WHIP) is primed to lock down the late innings. The market is overpaying for the Dodgers' brand name and Lauer's brief two-game success, making the home-team Pirates at -118 the clear sharp play.

The pick & result

Published pick: Pirates ML -118
Published odds: -118
Result: Lost
Final score: 12-3

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

The read

Injuries noted

Pirates: [NEW] Joey Bart (C) — Foot (Left): Bart (foot) is expected to start a rehab assignment this week for his left foot infection, reports Danny Demilio of PittsburghBaseballNow.com. (Jun 9 — 0d ago) [NEW] Konnor Griffin (SS) — Elbow (Right): Griffin (elbow) is scheduled to resume throwing Wednesday, Jason Mackey of MLB.com reports. (Jun 9 — 0d ago) [NEW] Chris Devenski (RP) — Illness (Not Specified): Devenski (illness) was transferred from the 15-day IL to the 60-day IL on Sunday. (Jun 7 — 2d ago) [KNOWN] Will Robertson (Left Fielder) — Undisclosed (Not Specified): The Orioles reassigned Robertson to minor-league camp Wednesday, Jacob Calvin Meyer of The Baltimore Sun reports. (May 8 — 32d ago) Dodgers: [KNOWN] Teoscar Hernandez (LF) — Hamstring (Left): Hernandez (hamstring) said Saturday that he expects to return from the injured list in about a month, Jack Harris of the California Post reports. (May 30 — 9d ago) [KNOWN] Enrique Hernandez (1B) — Oblique (Left): Hernandez is expected to be out for 6-to-8 weeks after sustaining a "significant tear" of his left oblique during Tuesday's 15-6 win over the Rockies, Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic reports. (May 28 — 12d ago) [KNOWN] Edwin Diaz (Relief Pitcher) — Elbow (Right): Diaz (elbow) is expected to start a throwing progression Tuesday or Wednesday, Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic reports. (May 25 — 14d ago) [KNOWN] Ben Casparius (Relief Pitcher) — Shoulder (Right): Casparius (shoulder) was moved to the 60-day injured list Monday. (May 18 — 21d ago) [KNOWN] Landon Knack (Starting Pitcher) — Chest (Not Specified): The Dodgers transferred Knack (chest) to the 60-day injured list Tuesday. (May 8 — 32d ago) [NEW] Will Smith (C) — Neck (Not Specified): Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said Tuesday that Smith (neck) "still doesn't feel right" and might need a stint on the injured list, Kirsten Watson of Spectrum SportsNet LA reports. (Jun 9 — 0d ago) [NEW] Brock Stewart (RP) — Foot (Left): Stewart (foot) threw to live hitters Saturday, Bill Plunkett of The Orange County Register reports. (Jun 7 — 2d ago) [NEW] Tyler Glasnow (SP) — Back (Not Specified): The Dodgers transferred Glasnow (back) to the 60-day injured list Saturday. (Jun 6 — 2d ago) [NEW] Blake Snell (SP) — Elbow (Left): Snell (elbow) began playing catch Friday, Sonja Chen of MLB.com reports. (Jun 5 — 3d ago) [KNOWN] Gavin Stone (Starting Pitcher) — Shoulder (Right): Dodgers manager Dave Roberts revealed Tuesday that Stone has been unable to ramp up his throwing without feeling soreness in his surgically repaired right shoulder, Cody Snavely of DodgersBeat.com reports. (Jun 3 — 6d ago)

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

COOLING OFF

Kyle Tucker cold (.484 OPS, L15) — draws RHP Paul Skenes
.484
Kyle Tucker's .484 OPS over the last 15 days (42 PA) trails his .716 season mark, down 0.232. Tonight he draws RHP Paul Skenes — his weaker side: a .677 OPS vs RHP across 171 AB.

BALLPARK

At PNC Park, Paul Skenes pitches to a 2.50 ERA
2.50
Paul Skenes starts at PNC Park tonight, where his ERA is 2.50 over 39.7 innings — 3.86 on a 30.3-inning baseline elsewhere. Hitters bat .176 off him here.

SITUATIONAL

PIT's pen has logged 13.3 innings across its last 3 games
13.3
3 games, 13.3 innings out of the pen — Bubba Chandler (5.3) and Evan Sisk (3) carried the load. LAD's pen has thrown 10.7 over the same span.

REGRESSION

Mookie Betts is hitting .183 with a .263 expected
.263
Across 133 plate appearances, Mookie Betts carries a .183 average versus a .263 xBA. His wOBA sits at .273 against a .331 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit above what he has actually posted.

All research from this day

About this analysis

Who made it: Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data: Daily picks first stored June 9, 2026 at 5:11 PM ET.
Odds record: The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, fanatics, draftkings, betmgm, betrivers, caesars.
Accountability: Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.

Props on this game

GARY'S PICK
SHOHEI OHTANITOTAL BASES OVER 1.5
MLBDodgers· +115
✓ CASHED · ACTUAL 2
Shohei Ohtani is currently in a state of absolute dominance, entering this series opener with a .442 average over his last 10 games and an even more remarkable .480 average over the last seven days. As the leadoff hitter for a Dodgers offense that leads the majors in wOBA against right-handed pitching, Ohtani is guaranteed maximum plate appearances to capitalize on his current form. While Paul Skenes is a premier talent, he has shown significant vulnerability recently, surrendering 15 runs over his last four starts. Ohtani has already demonstrated the ability to handle Skenes' elite velocity, having previously homered against him. Given that Ohtani has recorded multi-hit games in four of his last five outings, he is well-positioned to clear this 1.5 total bases line.
Shohei Ohtani
Total Bases over 1.5
+115 · CASHED · ACTUAL 2
Dodgers
Shohei Ohtani is currently in a state of absolute dominance, entering this series opener with a .442 average over his last 10 games and an even more remarkable .480 average over the last seven days. As the leadoff hitter for a Dodgers offense that leads the majors in wOBA against right-handed pitching, Ohtani is guaranteed maximum plate appearances to capitalize on his current form.
While Paul Skenes is a premier talent, he has shown significant vulnerability recently, surrendering 15 runs over his last four starts. Ohtani has already demonstrated the ability to handle Skenes' elite velocity, having previously homered against him.
Given that Ohtani has recorded multi-hit games in four of his last five outings, he is well-positioned to clear this 1.5 total bases line.
GARY'S PICK
MOOKIE BETTSTOTAL BASES UNDER 1.5
MLBDodgers· -175
LOST · ACTUAL 3
While Mookie Betts remains one of the most recognizable names in baseball, his 2026 campaign has been defined by a deep and prolonged struggle, evidenced by a .183 season average. Tonight presents a particularly difficult matchup as he faces Paul Skenes, who has limited right-handed hitters to a meager .193 batting average and maintains a elite 0.91 WHIP. Betts has been especially cold against righties this year, batting just .176. His recent game logs offer no indication of an imminent breakout, with only two hits in his last five games and zero extra-base hits or multi-hit performances in that span. In the pitcher-friendly environment of PNC Park (0.94 park factor), the likelihood of Betts recording two bases against one of the league's most dominant starters is statistically low.
Mookie Betts
Total Bases under 1.5
-175 · LOST · ACTUAL 3
Dodgers
While Mookie Betts remains one of the most recognizable names in baseball, his 2026 campaign has been defined by a deep and prolonged struggle, evidenced by a .183 season average. Tonight presents a particularly difficult matchup as he faces Paul Skenes, who has limited right-handed hitters to a meager .193 batting average and maintains a elite 0.91 WHIP.
Betts has been especially cold against righties this year, batting just .176. His recent game logs offer no indication of an imminent breakout, with only two hits in his last five games and zero extra-base hits or multi-hit performances in that span.
In the pitcher-friendly environment of PNC Park (0.94 park factor), the likelihood of Betts recording two bases against one of the league's most dominant starters is statistically low.
THE LONG SHOT
ERIC LAUERPITCHER OUTS UNDER 15.5
MLBDodgers· -115
LOST · ACTUAL 16
Eric Lauer has struggled with efficiency and longevity throughout the 2026 season, as evidenced by his 5.74 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. He has failed to record 16 outs in four of his last five starts, averaging roughly 4.2 innings per appearance in those misses. Tonight, he faces a Pittsburgh lineup that is heavily reinforced with left-handed and switch-hitting threats at the top, including Brandon Lowe, Bryan Reynolds, Ryan O'Hearn, and Oneil Cruz. Lauer has been highly vulnerable to left-handed hitting this year, allowing a .333 batting average and a 1.062 OPS in that split. Furthermore, the significant 77%-91% chance of rain at PNC Park creates a high probability of a weather-related delay or early hook, which heavily favors the under on pitcher volume. While he has a 2.53 ERA since joining the Dodgers, his high walk rate and extreme fly-ball profile (0.45 GO/AO) typically lead to high pitch counts and early exits.
Eric Lauer
Pitcher Outs under 15.5
-115 · LOST · ACTUAL 16
Dodgers
Eric Lauer has struggled with efficiency and longevity throughout the 2026 season, as evidenced by his 5.74 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. He has failed to record 16 outs in four of his last five starts, averaging roughly 4.2 innings per appearance in those misses.
Tonight, he faces a Pittsburgh lineup that is heavily reinforced with left-handed and switch-hitting threats at the top, including Brandon Lowe, Bryan Reynolds, Ryan O'Hearn, and Oneil Cruz. Lauer has been highly vulnerable to left-handed hitting this year, allowing a .333 batting average and a 1.062 OPS in that split.
Furthermore, the significant 77%-91% chance of rain at PNC Park creates a high probability of a weather-related delay or early hook, which heavily favors the under on pitcher volume. While he has a 2.53 ERA since joining the Dodgers, his high walk rate and extreme fly-ball profile (0.45 GO/AO) typically lead to high pitch counts and early exits.
THE LONG SHOT
PAUL SKENESK'S OVER 6.5
MLBPirates· -115
✓ CASHED · ACTUAL 7
Paul Skenes continues to be one of the elite strikeout producers in baseball, sporting a 10.54 K/9 on the season and a 29.5% strikeout rate. His recent form is even more dominant, as he has racked up 36 strikeouts in just 28.0 innings over his last five starts. He has cleared the 6.5-strikeout threshold in four of those five games, including two double-digit performances. Skenes utilizes elite velocity (97.1 mph 4-seam) and a devastating 93.5 mph splitter to neutralize both lefties and righties (.194 and .193 BAA respectively). While the Dodgers' lineup is disciplined, the absence of key contact hitters Will Smith and Teoscar Hernandez increases the strikeout floor of the middle of the order. Even with the rain risk, Skenes' ability to generate swings and misses at such a high rate means he can reach 7 strikeouts even in a slightly shortened outing.
Paul Skenes
K'S over 6.5
-115 · CASHED · ACTUAL 7
Pirates
Paul Skenes continues to be one of the elite strikeout producers in baseball, sporting a 10.54 K/9 on the season and a 29.5% strikeout rate. His recent form is even more dominant, as he has racked up 36 strikeouts in just 28.0 innings over his last five starts.
He has cleared the 6.5-strikeout threshold in four of those five games, including two double-digit performances. Skenes utilizes elite velocity (97.1 mph 4-seam) and a devastating 93.5 mph splitter to neutralize both lefties and righties (.194 and .193 BAA respectively).
While the Dodgers' lineup is disciplined, the absence of key contact hitters Will Smith and Teoscar Hernandez increases the strikeout floor of the middle of the order. Even with the rain risk, Skenes' ability to generate swings and misses at such a high rate means he can reach 7 strikeouts even in a slightly shortened outing.

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