Reds at Cardinals
O/U 9.5 · RL Cardinals -1.5 · Busch Stadium
The pick & result
- Published pick
- Reds ML +122
- Published odds
- +122
- Result
- Lost
- Final score
- 3-5
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
The read
The afternoon sun beats down on Busch Stadium as the Cincinnati Reds look to salvage a game against their division rivals, the St. Louis Cardinals, who are hunting for a series sweep. Under the hot St. Louis sky, this matchup presents a classic battle of conflicting pitching profiles and glaring market inefficiencies. The market is overpaying for Michael McGreevy's fragile 2.98 ERA, pricing the Cardinals as favorites at -144. While his surface numbers look stellar, his underlying 5.7 xERA reveals a pitcher living on borrowed time. McGreevy relies on a changeup to mask a mediocre 91.5 mph fastball and an 86.5 mph cutter that are being crushed to the tune of .403 and .586 xwOBA respectively. With his strikeouts collapsing—notching only 1 strikeout in two of his last three starts—he is pitching to heavy contact. In today's 84°F heat with a 12 mph crosswind blowing Right to Left, this extreme reliance on contact is a major liability. The Reds' top hitters are built to punish this; JJ Bleday is an absolute force against fastballs with a .563 xwOBA and thrives in afternoon starts with a 1.181 OPS, while Nathaniel Lowe has a .923 OPS against righties.
Meanwhile, the market is discounting Rhett Lowder due to his pre-injury 5.40 ERA. However, his June 2 rehab start suggests he has completely turned a corner. Lowder exhibited a significant velocity spike, touching 96 mph while striking out eight batters and walking none over five dominant innings. He threw 50 strikes on 70 pitches and generated ten swings and misses, with six of those coming on his slider. Lowder's sharpened command and increased velocity give the Reds a massive pitching edge over a regression-bound McGreevy, whose lack of swing-and-miss stuff makes him vulnerable to a Cincinnati lineup hungry to stop the bleeding.
The primary argument against Cincinnati is the severe loss of Elly De La Cruz to a hamstring injury, which limits their speed and takes away a premier power bat. However, the Reds still possess potent weapons in Bleday (.959 OPS) and Spencer Steer, who can easily exploit McGreevy's vulnerable fastball. Backed by Tyler Stephenson's elite 78% success rate in the challenge system to help Lowder squeeze the strike zone, the Reds possess immense value as road underdogs to avoid the sweep.
Injuries noted
Cardinals: [NEW] Ramon Urias (3B) — Elbow (Right): Urias (elbow) returned to St. Louis to undergo an examination on his left elbow, Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat reports. (Jun 6 — 1d ago) [NEW] Nathan Church (LF) — Shoulder (Left): Church (shoulder) could be reinstated from the 10-day injured list ahead of Tuesday's game against the Mets, Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat reports. (Jun 6 — 1d ago) [NEW] Ryan Fernandez (RP) — Back: The Cardinals recalled Fernandez from Triple-A Memphis on Tuesday. (Jun 5 — 1d ago) Reds: [NEW] Pierce Johnson (RP) — Elbow (Right): Johnson (elbow) is expected to toss a bullpen session Tuesday, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports. (Jun 7 — 0d ago) [NEW] Elly De La Cruz (SS) — Hamstring (Right): De La Cruz (hamstring) had his scheduled MRI moved up three days to this coming Friday, June 12, Gordon Wittenmyer of The Cincinnati Enquirer reports. (Jun 6 — 1d ago) [NEW] Hunter Greene (Starting Pitcher) — Elbow (Right): Reds manager Terry Francona told reporters Saturday that Greene (elbow) could return from the 60-day injured list prior to the All-Star break, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports. (Jun 6 — 1d ago) [NEW] Jose Trevino (C) — Hamstring (Left): Trevino (hamstring) began a rehab assignment with Triple-A Louisville on Thursday, going 0-for-3 with a strikeout. (Jun 5 — 2d ago) [KNOWN] Graham Ashcraft (RP) — Elbow (Right): Ashcraft (elbow) received a platelet-rich plasma injection Tuesday, MLB.com reports. (Jun 3 — 4d ago) [KNOWN] Emilio Pagan (RP) — Hamstring (Left): Pagan (hamstring) underwent an MRI exam Friday that showed positive results, MLB.com reports. (May 31 — 7d ago) [KNOWN] Ke'Bryan Hayes (3B) — Back: Hayes is out of the lineup for Wednesday's game against the Phillies. (May 22 — 15d ago) [KNOWN] Brandon Williamson (Starting Pitcher) — Shoulder (Left): The Reds transferred Williamson (shoulder) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Wednesday. (May 8 — 30d ago)
The research
The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.
COOLING OFF
Nolan Gorman has gone cold: .307 OPS in Last 15 Days
.307That .307 OPS spans the last 15 days (35 PA) against a .615 season baseline, a 0.308 drop.
BALLPARK
At Busch Stadium, Michael McGreevy pitches to a 2.12 ERA
2.12Michael McGreevy starts at Busch Stadium tonight, where his ERA is 2.12 over 34 innings — 3.90 on a 32.3-inning baseline elsewhere. Hitters bat .220 off him here.
SITUATIONAL
13 bullpen innings in 3 games for STL
13Relievers have absorbed 13 innings over the last 3 games (Hunter Dobbins (5) and Ryne Stanek (2.7) the heaviest). CIN's pen has thrown 10 over the same span.
REGRESSION
Michael McGreevy: 2.98 ERA vs 5.7 xERA
5.7Michael McGreevy carries a 2.98 ERA against a 5.7 expected ERA (2.72 run gap), so he has been outperforming his contact quality. Opponents hit .229 off him vs a .294 expected (xBA). Most lines price off his season ERA, which may not reflect that gap.
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Daily picks first stored June 7, 2026 at 1:15 PM ET.
- Odds record
- The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, fanatics, caesars, betmgm, draftkings, betrivers.
- Accountability
- Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.
Props on this game
2- GARY'S PICKTYLER STEPHENSONH+R+RBI UNDER 1.5
Tyler Stephenson is currently mired in a severe slump, recording just one hit in his last five games and hitting a meager .188 on the season. While Cardinals starter Michael McGreevy is a candidate for regression, Stephenson has shown almost no ability to generate quality contact recently, regardless of the matchup. Batting 8th in the Reds' lineup, his volume floor is significantly lower than the top-of-the-order hitters, reducing his chances to accumulate the two production points (hits, runs, or RBIs) required to clear this line. Given that McGreevy maintains a 1.10 WHIP and has been exceptionally effective in day games (1.88 ERA), the likelihood of a struggling bottom-of-the-order hitter breaking out for a multi-hit or multi-RBI performance is statistically low.
- GARY'S PICKJJ BLEDAYTOTAL BASES OVER 1.5
JJ Bleday represents the strongest opportunity to capitalize on the statistical regression looming for Cardinals starter Michael McGreevy. While McGreevy carries an elite 2.98 ERA, his expected metrics (5.70 xERA) are among the worst for active starters, fueled by a high 10% barrel rate and 41.3% hard-hit rate allowed.
Bleday is the ideal hitter to exploit this gap; he is the Reds' most productive bat against right-handed pitching, posting a 1.024 OPS and hitting eight of his ten home runs in that split. Bleday has been highly productive lately, hitting .310 over his last 10 games and averaging 2.2 total bases per game in that span.
Batting second in the lineup, he will see high volume against a pitcher whose surface-level success is largely unsupported by his contact profile.
Every prop from this day is on the archive page.
Every pick posts before the game and is graded after, in public. My Book on this website lets you tail or fade listed calls and keeps your record separately labeled; Gary is also available as a native iOS app.
Get Gary on the App StoreEvery MLB game this dayThe MLB recordToday's MLB picksEvery sport this day