Orioles at Blue Jays
O/U 8 · RL Blue Jays -1.5 · Rogers Centre
Orioles ML+116
CONF 75%
LLostFinal 4-6
The read
We are under cloudy skies at the Rogers Centre as the Baltimore Orioles and Toronto Blue Jays face off in a high-stakes, series-deciding Sunday afternoon rubber match. Both teams enter today with identical 31-34 records, but the value is clearly on the underdog Orioles at a +116 price. The market is pricing this game heavily on Kevin Gausman's season-long numbers, but that shiny 3.36 ERA is highly fragile right now. Gausman has failed to complete seven innings in any of his last five starts, showing serious volatility with two blow-up starts in that stretch, and he carries a mediocre 4.53 career ERA against Baltimore. On the other side, Shane Baz is pitching like a true ace; over his last four starts, Baz has recorded four Quality Starts and a microscopic 0.81 WHIP over 27.0 innings. Baz also has a psychological grip on this Toronto lineup, carrying a perfect 4-0 career record and a 2.23 ERA across six starts against them.
The biggest hidden factor in this game lies in the contrasting bullpen states and a critical, fresh defensive injury for Toronto. Blue Jays center fielder Daulton Varsho was just scratched with a left wrist injury. Losing Varsho's Gold-Glove-level outfield range is massive, especially with Gausman's fly-ball tendencies (indicated by a 0.87 grounders-to-flyouts ratio) and the Rogers Centre roof open. In addition, Toronto's leverage relievers are extremely fatigued, with closer Louis Varland and setup man Tyler Rogers having pitched in two of the last three games. Baltimore’s bullpen is completely rested, featuring Rico Garcia and his elite 0.68 ERA in a clean, high-leverage spot. This gives Baltimore a monumental advantage in the late innings if Gausman has another early exit.
The strongest argument for Toronto is their winning 18-14 home record and Gausman's historical success holding Gunnar Henderson to a .167 average and Adley Rutschman to a .174 average. However, the Orioles' lineup is perfectly built to counter Gausman's platoon split (.679 OPS allowed to lefties compared to .583 to righties) by putting five left-handed or switch hitters in their top eight. Lefties like Samuel Basallo (.900 OPS against right-handed pitching) and Rutschman (.899 OPS against right-handed pitching) will force Gausman to throw high-stress pitches. With Taylor Ward also boasting a career .400 average against Gausman, the Orioles are primed to jump on Gausman early and let a rested bullpen shut the door.
Injuries noted
Blue Jays: [NEW] Daulton Varsho (CF) — Wrist (Left): Varsho (wrist) is not in the Blue Jays' starting lineup against the Orioles on Sunday. (Jun 7 — 0d ago) [NEW] Max Scherzer (Starting Pitcher) — Forearm (Right): Scherzer (forearm) gave up three runs on five hits and a walk over 3.2 innings for Triple-A Buffalo on Friday. He struck out five. (Jun 6 — 1d ago) [NEW] Dylan Cease (SP) — Hamstring (Left): Manager John Schneider said Friday that Cease (hamstring) is "very likely" to rejoin the Blue Jays' rotation next week, Keegan Matheson of MLB.com reports. (Jun 5 — 1d ago) [NEW] Joe Mantiply (RP) — Knee (Left): Mantiply will undergo arthroscopic surgery to repair some damage in his left knee, Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet.ca reports. (Jun 3 — 3d ago) [KNOWN] Alejandro Kirk (Catcher) — Thumb (Left): Kirk (thumb) could be activated from the injured list early next week, with Blue Jays manager John Schneider indicating the catcher would need about 20 at-bats on his rehab assignment before being ready to rejoin the lineup, Mitch Bannon of The Athletic reports. (Jun 3 — 4d ago) [KNOWN] Lazaro Estrada (Unspecified Position) — Shoulder (Right): Estrada (shoulder) yielded one run on three walks over 2.1 innings in his first rehab start with Triple-A Buffalo on Tuesday. (Jun 3 — 4d ago) [KNOWN] Tommy Nance (RP) — Forearm (Right): Nance (forearm) threw live batting practice Tuesday, Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet.ca reports. (Jun 2 — 4d ago) [KNOWN] Addison Barger (RF) — Elbow (Right): Barger (elbow) has been hitting in the batting cage at Toronto's complex in Dunedin, Florida, Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet.ca reports. (May 30 — 7d ago) [KNOWN] Lenyn Sosa (2B) — Wrist (Right): Sosa went 2-for-5 with a solo home run, an additional run and an additional RBI on Saturday against the Twins in an 11-4 victory. (May 28 — 9d ago) [KNOWN] Jose Berrios (Starting Pitcher) — Elbow (Right): Blue Jays manager John Schneider said that Berrios underwent full Tommy John surgery Wednesday in addition to having a stress fracture repaired, Hazel Mae of Sportsnet reports. (May 27 — 10d ago) [KNOWN] Cody Ponce (Starting Pitcher) — Knee (Right): Ponce underwent surgery Friday to repair the ACL in his right knee, Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet.ca reports. (May 8 — 30d ago) Orioles: [NEW] Chris Bassitt (SP) — Back (Not Specified): Bassitt (back) is travelling to rejoin the Orioles in Toronto on Friday and could make his next start Monday against the Mariners, Jake Rill of MLB.com reports. (Jun 5 — 1d ago) [KNOWN] Dylan Beavers (RF) — Oblique (Right): Beavers (oblique) hit in the batting cage Wednesday, Matt Weyrich of The Baltimore Sun reports. (May 27 — 10d ago) [KNOWN] Cade Povich (SP) — Elbow (Left): Povich (elbow) met with Dr. Keith Meister on Tuesday and is without an official timetable for his return after receiving a cortisone injection, Matt Weyrich of The Baltimore Sun reports. (May 19 — 18d ago) [KNOWN] Ryan Mountcastle (First Baseman) — Foot (Left): General manager Mike Elias said Friday that Mountcastle is expected to return sometime in late June or July, Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com reports. (May 15 — 22d ago) [KNOWN] Yaramil Hiraldo (Relief Pitcher) — Shoulder (Right): The Orioles announced Monday that Hiraldo (shoulder) has resumed a throwing program, Jacob Calvin Meyer of The Baltimore Sun reports. (May 11 — 26d ago) [KNOWN] Zach Eflin (Starting Pitcher) — Elbow (Right): Eflin underwent Tommy John surgery on his right elbow Wednesday, Andy Kostka of TheBaltimoreBanner.com reports. (May 8 — 30d ago) [NEW] Ryan Helsley (RP) — Elbow (Right): Helsley (elbow) could start a rehab assignment as early as Monday, MLB.com reports. (Jun 5 — 1d ago) [NEW] Dean Kremer (Starting Pitcher) — Quadriceps (Right): Kremer (quadriceps) threw a live bullpen session earlier in the week, Jake Rill of MLB.com reports. (Jun 5 — 1d ago)
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- Board stored June 7, 2026 at 1:15 PM ET.
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Props on this game
4Pete AlonsoOVER 0.5 Home Runs Home Runs+400
LActual 0
Pete Alonso enters this series finale with significant power momentum, having homered in yesterday's loss and totaling three home runs over his last 10 games. While Kevin Gausman is elite in day games (1.52 ERA), he has shown a specific vulnerability to right-handed power this season, surrendering four of his seven total home runs to righties in just 114 at-bats. Alonso is the Orioles' primary power threat with 13 home runs on the season and carries a superior .828 OPS on the road compared to at home. Gausman’s fly-ball tendency (0.87 GO/AO) creates a favorable environment for Alonso to capitalize on a mistake, especially given his career track record of high-barrel production in hitter-friendly environments like Rogers Centre.
Kazuma OkamotoOVER 0.5 Home Runs Home Runs+390
LActual 0
Kazuma Okamoto represents the Blue Jays' best opportunity for power against Shane Baz, who has struggled with contact quality this season, allowing a 40.8% hard-hit rate and an 8.5% barrel rate. Baz is a fly-ball leaning pitcher (0.84 GO/AO) and has been specifically vulnerable to right-handed hitters, giving up four home runs to righties in only 106 at-bats compared to three home runs to lefties in 159 at-bats. Okamoto has 13 home runs on the season and has been in excellent form, recording multi-hit games in four of his last five outings. With Baz posting a 4.57 ERA in day starts, Okamoto's consistent contact and elite barrel skills make him a strong candidate to clear the fence in a high-leverage rubber match.
Pete AlonsoOVER 1.5 H+R+RBI H+R+RBI-115
LActual 0
Pete Alonso is currently the most reliable offensive producer for the Orioles, entering this game on a 10-game hitting streak during which he has batted .317 with three home runs. He has successfully cleared this 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs line in three of his last five games, including yesterday's loss where he homered. With Baltimore's lineup heavily depleted by injuries to Westburg and Mountcastle, the offense is concentrated around Alonso, ensuring he will have high-leverage plate appearances with runners on base. He matches up well against right-handed pitching this season (.251 AVG, .820 OPS) and is less affected by the wind blowing in from right field as a right-handed pull hitter than his left-handed teammates.
Ernie ClementOVER 1.5 Total Bases Total Bases+130
LActual 1
Ernie Clement has been on a sustained tear, leading the Blue Jays with a .306 season average and elevating that to .350 over his last 10 contests. He is coming off a massive performance yesterday where he recorded a three-run home run and a triple.
Today he faces Shane Baz, who has struggled with consistency this season (4.29 ERA, 1.37 WHIP) and has allowed a .796 OPS to opposing batters. Clement has surpassed this 1.5 total bases mark in three of his last five games and six of his last ten.
At +130 odds, the line offers significant value for a player in peak form hitting in the middle of the order.
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