Brewers at Rockies
O/U 11.5 · RL Brewers -1.5 · Coors Field
Brewers ML-180
CONF 85%
WCashedFinal 12-4
The read
It is a hot, dry afternoon at Coors Field as the first-place Milwaukee Brewers look to complete a series sweep against the struggling Colorado Rockies in the thin air of Denver. The absolute driving force behind backing Milwaukee is the devastating starting pitching mismatch and the platoon advantages they hold over Colorado's Kyle Freeland. Freeland is in the midst of a historic collapse, posting an 11.35 ERA and allowing a .400 opponent batting average over his last five starts. He has struggled immensely against right-handed hitters all season, surrendering a .958 OPS and 12 of his 13 home runs to the right side. The Brewers’ lineup is a hand-crafted nightmare for Freeland, featuring elite right-handed bats like Andrew Vaughn, who is batting .500 with a 1.308 OPS against lefties this season and has a career 1.194 OPS against Freeland. Combined with Jackson Chourio's career .375 average and 1.569 OPS against Freeland, the Brewers’ offense is perfectly positioned to tee off in Denver's carrying 93°F air.
The strongest counterargument against Milwaukee is the volatility of Shane Drohan making his first career start at Coors Field. Drohan relies heavily on vertical break and a sweep-heavy slider, both of which are at risk of flattening out in the 93°F heat and 9% humidity, which could turn his high fly-ball rate into a liability. Furthermore, Drohan is on a strict pitch limit and rarely pitches deep. However, this concern is mitigated by the immense disparity in bullpen readiness and defensive quality. While Milwaukee can bridge the gap with a rested high-leverage core of Trevor Megill, Abner Uribe, and Aaron Ashby alongside long-man Chad Patrick (2.34 ERA), the Rockies' bullpen is utterly exhausted. Colorado's key relievers have thrown heavy back-to-back workloads, and their best reliever, Antonio Senzatela, is likely unavailable.
To make matters worse for the home side, Colorado's defense is highly fragile, having committed 40 errors compared to Milwaukee's 27. The Rockies are also missing hot-hitting outfielder Tyler Freeman, who is day-to-day after being struck in the head yesterday, further depleting an outfield that lacks the natural range to cover Coors Field's vast spaces. The Rockies' offense also struggles when the pressure is on, as evidenced by Hunter Goodman's poor .204 RISP average, compared to Brice Turang’s .327 average with RISP. Milwaukee has already outscored Colorado in the first two games of this series and holds a clear edge in every single facet of this game. Take the Brewers to finish the job and secure the sweep.
Injuries noted
Rockies: [KNOWN] Brenton Doyle (CF) — Oblique (Left): The Rockies announced Friday that Doyle (oblique) has been able to take part in some pool exercises since landing on the 10-day injured list May 21, MLB.com reports. (May 31 — 6d ago) [KNOWN] Victor Vodnik (RP) — Elbow (Right): Vodnik (elbow) tossed a bullpen session Saturday, MLB.com reports. (May 31 — 6d ago) [KNOWN] Jordan Beck (LF) — Hamstring (Left): Beck (hamstring) was able to begin a running progression this past week, MLB.com reports. (May 31 — 6d ago) [KNOWN] Jose Quintana (SP) — Elbow (Left): The Rockies placed Quintana on the 15-day injured list Monday with a left elbow sprain. (May 28 — 9d ago) [KNOWN] Chase Dollander (SP) — Elbow (Right): Rockies manager Warren Schaeffer said Wednesday that Dollander (elbow) will be shut down from throwing for the next 2-to-3 weeks, MLB.com reports. (May 20 — 17d ago) [NEW] Tyler Freeman (RF) — Head: Freeman went 1-for-4 with a two-run home run in Wednesday's 11-4 loss to the Angels. (Jun 6 — 0d ago) [NEW] Tanner Gordon (RP) — Hip (Right): Gordon (0-1) took the loss Sunday, allowing four runs on six hits and a walk over three-plus innings against San Francisco. He struck out two. (Jun 5 — 1d ago) [NEW] Mickey Moniak (LF) — Ankle (Right): Moniak (ankle) has been cleared to begin baseball activities, Kevin Henry of The Denver Gazette reports. (Jun 5 — 1d ago) [KNOWN] Welinton Herrera (RP) — Elbow (Left): Rockies manager Warren Schaeffer announced Monday that Herrera (elbow) has been diagnosed with a torn UCL and will miss the remainder of the season, Jack Janes of MLB.com reports. (Jun 2 — 5d ago) [KNOWN] Jimmy Herget (RP) — Shoulder (Right): Herget (shoulder) was cleared to resume playing catch May 24, MLB.com reports. (May 31 — 6d ago) Brewers: [NEW] Brian Fitzpatrick (RP) — Elbow (Left): Fitzpatrick (elbow) has been diagnosed with a left UCL strain and will get a second opinion to determine if he needs Tommy John surgery, MLB.com reports. (Jun 6 — 0d ago) [NEW] DL Hall (RP) — Pectoral (Left): Manager Pat Murphy said after Thursday's game against the Giants that Hall was removed due to left pectoral discomfort, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports. (Jun 5 — 1d ago) [NEW] Brandon Woodruff (SP) — Shoulder (Right): Woodruff (shoulder) is headed to the Brewers' spring training facility and could pitch in Arizona Complex League games, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports. (Jun 5 — 2d ago) [NEW] Grant Anderson (RP) — Forearm (Right): X-rays on Anderson's right forearm came back negative following his removal from Thursday's game against the Giants, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports. (Jun 4 — 2d ago) [NEW] Logan Henderson (SP) — Back (Not Specified): Henderson received an injection in his back Tuesday, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports. (Jun 3 — 3d ago) [NEW] Rob Zastryzny (RP) — Shoulder (Left): The Brewers reinstated Zastrzyny (shoulder/ribs) from the 60-day injured list Sunday. (Jun 3 — 3d ago) [KNOWN] Brandon Lockridge (LF) — Knee (Right): Lockridge (knee) will attempt to run at 85-to-90 percent intensity Monday, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports. (Jun 1 — 5d ago) [KNOWN] Angel Zerpa (Relief Pitcher) — Elbow (Left): The Brewers transferred Zerpa (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Sunday. (May 31 — 7d ago) [KNOWN] Jared Koenig (Relief Pitcher) — Elbow (Left): Koenig (elbow) said his live bullpen session went well Tuesday and he expects to begin a rehab assignment with Triple-A Nashville on Friday, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports. (May 26 — 11d ago)
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