Guardians at Yankees
O/U 7.5 · RL Yankees -1.5 · Yankee Stadium
The pick & result
- Published pick
- Yankees -1.5 -105
- Published odds
- -105
- Result
- Lost
- Final score
- 9-4
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
The read
Under the bright lights of Yankee Stadium, a high-stakes American League clash unfolds tonight as the Cleveland Guardians look to defend their division lead against a surging New York Yankees squad in the opening game of their three-game series. Even with the late-breaking scratch of superstar Aaron Judge due to a shoulder bone bruise, the value in this matchup lies entirely on the Yankees' side of the run line. Starting pitcher Cam Schlittler has been the definition of a lockdown ace, sporting a pristine 1.50 ERA and an 0.85 WHIP. While the market might be paying a slight premium for his overperforming ERA compared to his 2.55 xERA, he remains lightyears ahead of Joey Cantillo, who is walking a dangerous tightrope with 15 walks in his last 23.2 innings—a fatal flaw against a highly patient Yankees lineup.
On the offensive side, Cleveland's bats have completely cratered, averaging a meager 2.4 runs per game over their last 10 games. The Guardians' left-handed hitters, including rookie Travis Bazzana and Chase DeLauter, face an uphill battle against Schlittler’s elite cutter-sinker mix, which is custom-built to stifle lefties. Conversely, Yankees first baseman Ben Rice (.306 AVG, 17 HR) is poised to feast on Cantillo's highly vulnerable 4-seam fastball (.367 xwOBA), utilizing the short right-field porch to drive in runs early. Even without Judge's protection, the Yankees' depth is more than capable of generating consistent traffic against a wild Cantillo.
The strongest case for Cleveland rests on José Ramírez’s historic comfort in the Bronx (.393 career average) and a rested closer in Cade Smith. However, Ramírez is struggling through a season-long slump (.228 AVG) and must face Schlittler's elite stuff, while Smith will only be a factor if the Guardians can keep the game tight. With Cantillo highly susceptible to a quick exit and a tired Guardians middle bullpen forced to eat early innings, the Yankees are primed to pull away. Backing the Yankees at -1.5 on the run line (-105) is the sharp play, as New York's elite run prevention will prevent a cold Cleveland offense from keeping pace.
Injuries noted
Yankees: [NEW] Jasson Dominguez (LF) — Shoulder (Left): Yankees manager Aaron Boone said Tuesday that Dominguez (shoulder) will hit live pitching Wednesday and likely begin a rehab assignment later this week, Chelsea Janes of SNY.tv reports. (Jun 2 — 0d ago) [NEW] Aaron Judge (RF) — Ribs (Right): Manager Aaron Boone said that Judge is out of the lineup for Tuesday's game against the Guardians due to a bone bruise in his ribs that is causing soreness in his right shoulder, Brendan Kuty of The Athletic reports. (Jun 2 — 0d ago) [NEW] Angel Chivilli (Relief Pitcher) — Shoulder (Right): Chivilli (shoulder) has resumed throwing off a mound and is slated to throw live batting practice during the coming week, per MLB.com. (May 31 — 2d ago) [NEW] Giancarlo Stanton (Designated Hitter) — Calf (Right): Stanton (calf) has begun running outside, per MLB.com. (May 31 — 2d ago) [KNOWN] Max Fried (SP) — Elbow (Left): Yankees manager Aaron Boone said that Fried (elbow) played catch Monday, Greg Joyce of the New York Post reports. (May 25 — 8d ago) Guardians: [KNOWN] Erik Sabrowski (RP) — Elbow (Left): Sabrowski (elbow) underwent an MRI on Tuesday which confirmed inflammation but no structural damage, MLB.com reports. (May 27 — 6d ago)
The research
The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.
PLATOON EDGE
Paul Goldschmidt (bats R) draws Joey Cantillo (LHP), hitting 2nd
1.172Paul Goldschmidt carries a 1.172 OPS vs. Left vs .587 the other way (49 AB sample), and faces LHP Joey Cantillo tonight from the 2nd spot — a platoon split his blended season line may not reflect.
Travis Bazzana (bats L) draws Cam Schlittler (RHP), hitting 1st
.949Travis Bazzana carries a .949 OPS vs. Right vs .617 the other way (72 AB sample), and faces RHP Cam Schlittler tonight from the 1st spot — a platoon split his blended season line may not reflect.
HEAT CHECK
Trent Grisham is scorching: 1.006 OPS in Last 15 Days
1.006Trent Grisham is posting a 1.006 OPS over the last 15 days (37 PA) vs a .704 season OPS — a 0.302 jump the season baseline most lines price off may not reflect.
Jazz Chisholm Jr. is scorching: .826 OPS in Last 15 Days
.826Jazz Chisholm Jr. is posting a .826 OPS over the last 15 days (40 PA) vs a .700 season OPS — a 0.126 jump the season baseline most lines price off may not reflect.
COOLING OFF
Angel Martinez has gone cold: .405 OPS in Last 15 Days
.405Angel Martinez is down to a .405 OPS over the last 15 days (42 PA) vs a .729 season OPS — a 0.324 drop the season baseline most lines price off may not reflect.
Chase DeLauter has gone cold: .514 OPS in Last 15 Days
.514Chase DeLauter is down to a .514 OPS over the last 15 days (49 PA) vs a .779 season OPS — a 0.265 drop the season baseline most lines price off may not reflect.
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Daily picks first stored June 2, 2026 at 5:15 PM ET.
- Odds record
- The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, fanatics, caesars, draftkings, betmgm, betrivers.
- Accountability
- Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.
Props on this game
2- GARY'S PICKBEN RICEH+R+RBI OVER 1.5
Ben Rice has emerged as the offensive centerpiece for a Yankees lineup currently missing Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton. Moving into the leadoff spot guarantees him the highest volume of plate appearances (projected 4-5) against Guardians starter Joey Cantillo.
While Cantillo is a left-hander, Rice has shown no platoon disadvantage, posting a 1.015 OPS against southpaws this season. Rice is in elite form, batting .355 over his last 10 games, and is facing a pitcher in Cantillo who struggles with command (1.40 WHIP) and has a night ERA of 4.83.
In a stadium with a short right-field porch and wind blowing out to right (10 mph L to R), Rice's power and high contact rate make him a prime candidate to clear this multi-category line.
- GARY'S PICKCODY BELLINGERTOTAL BASES OVER 1.5
Cody Bellinger has been a completely different hitter at home this season, posting a massive .371 batting average and 1.209 OPS at Yankee Stadium compared to a sub-.200 average on the road. Batting third tonight, he will benefit from the high on-base potential of Ben Rice and Paul Goldschmidt ahead of him.
He faces Joey Cantillo, whose advanced metrics (4.08 xERA) suggest he is due for regression. Bellinger's ability to drive the ball into the gaps or over the short right-field porch is amplified tonight by a 10 mph wind blowing directly toward right field.
A single extra-base hit or two singles clears this line, and given his historic production in this venue, the +140 odds offer significant value.
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