Padres at Nationals

We've got a beautiful Sunday afternoon for baseball at Nationals Park as the San Diego Padres and Washington Nationals square off in a high-stakes rubber match to decide their three-game set. With the series split, both clubs are hungry to secure a crucial early-season series victory in the capital.

The public and the books are looking at Zack Littell’s shiny 2.19 ERA over his last five starts and Griffin Canning’s ugly 7.54 ERA, assuming the Nationals have a major advantage on the mound. But the underlying Statcast metrics tell us the market is overpaying for a fragile number with Littell. His 5.23 actual ERA hides a horrific 6.55 xERA and a bottom-tier .392 xwOBA allowed. Because Littell doesn't miss bats (5.1 K/9), he is entirely reliant on a defense that has committed an atrocious 53 errors. In contrast, Canning’s 7.54 ERA is highly deceptive, masking a much more competitive 4.55 xERA. Armed with a strong 9.5 K/9, Canning has the swing-and-miss stuff to keep the Nationals' young hitters from making consistent hard contact.

The biggest differentiator in this game, however, is the late-inning situation. If this contest is tight after five or six innings, San Diego holds a monumental advantage with their elite high-leverage arms—including Jason Adam, Jeremiah Estrada, and virtually unhittable closer Mason Miller (0.72 ERA, 17.6 K/9)—fully rested on two days of rest. Meanwhile, Washington's bullpen is heavily taxed and relies on high-traffic arms like Richard Lovelady (1.71 WHIP). While the Nationals' lefty power core of CJ Abrams and James Wood can certainly threaten Canning’s vulnerable fastball, the Padres' starting catcher Freddy Fermin boasts an elite 47% caught-stealing rate, which will severely neutralize Washington's running game. Combine that with Fernando Tatis Jr. breaking his 55-game homerless drought with a 451-foot blast yesterday, and the Padres—who are stellar road warriors at 16-9—are in the perfect spot to secure this victory.