Cubs at Cardinals

The historic rivalry between the Cubs and Cardinals heats up tonight under the national spotlight at a breezy Busch Stadium, where Chicago seeks to snap a painful slide while St. Louis looks to secure a series victory. It is a classic matchup of momentum versus underlying talent, and tonight, the starting pitching disparity makes the visitor the clear choice.

The betting value is entirely on the Cubs tonight because the market has overreacted to Chicago's recent 2-8 skid, pricing them at a modest -132. This price is remarkably cheap because the market is paying for a fragile profile in Cardinals starter Kyle Leahy. Leahy's 5-3 record and 4.44 ERA mask a disastrous 6.33 xERA and a .386 xwOBA allowed, showing that he is highly vulnerable. He faces a matchup nightmare tonight against a Cubs lineup that holds a massive platoon advantage. Leahy allows a staggering .337 batting average and a .425 wOBA to left-handed hitters, meaning Michael Busch, Ian Happ, and Moises Ballesteros are primed to dominate. Furthermore, while the Cubs have struggled to convert runs lately, their underlying .402 xwOBA over the last three games indicates that their hard contact is due to find grass, and Leahy’s sinker-heavy approach is perfect for them to break out against.

Meanwhile, Ben Brown gives the Cubs a massive, sustainable edge on the mound. Armed with a 99th-percentile knuckle-curve and a high-velocity fastball, Brown's 2.01 ERA is fully supported by an elite 2.88 xERA. He matches up perfectly against a high-strikeout St. Louis lineup, particularly because he has neutralized lefties this season with a tiny .199 wOBA allowed. With a 9 mph wind blowing in from right field, the pull power of the Cardinals' left-handed hitters like Nolan Gorman and Alec Burleson will be severely suppressed. Combine Brown's elite hit suppression with a completely fresh Cubs bullpen—while the Cardinals burned six relievers in yesterday's game—and Chicago has a decisive pitching and environmental advantage. St. Louis has the recent momentum, but the Cubs have the vastly superior pitching, platoon matches, and rest situation to stop their slide tonight.