Cubs at Pirates
O/U 8.5 · RL Pirates -1.5 · PNC Park
Pirates ML-122
CONF 75%
LLostFinal 10-4
The read
PNC Park is bathed in the warm glow of a late-May evening as the surging Pittsburgh Pirates look to keep their division rivals in a tailspin under the lights. The story of tonight's matchup revolves around a severe starting pitching mismatch and perfect environmental alignment for the home team's power bats. Jameson Taillon takes the mound for Chicago in the midst of a brutal stretch, having surrendered 12 earned runs and six home runs over his last two starts. His susceptibility to the long ball—highlighted by a league-high 17 home runs allowed this season—presents a dangerous vulnerability against a Pirates lineup that features left-handed sluggers like Brandon Lowe. With the wind projected to blow out to right field at 5 mph, Lowe, who crushes right-handed pitching with a 1.000 OPS and has a career 1.197 OPS against Taillon, is in a prime position to make the Cubs pay.
On the other side, the Pirates counter with Bubba Chandler, who is coming off a sensational 11-strikeout performance where he surrendered zero runs and only two hits. While Chandler can occasionally struggle with walks, his elite miss-bats ability gives him a vastly higher ceiling than Taillon, particularly against a tight, struggling Cubs offense that is averaging just one run per game over the first two games of this series. The tactical edge extends into the late innings as well; because of yesterday's lopsided blowout, the Pirates' bullpen is exceptionally fresh. High-leverage closer Gregory Soto, sporting a 2.13 ERA and a minuscule 0.79 WHIP, is completely rested and ready to shut down any late-game rally.
With the Cubs on a demoralizing 10-game losing streak and outscored 14-2 over the last 48 hours, Chicago's clubhouse is feeling the weight of their current tailspin. The contrast in current form, pitching durability, and platoon matchups makes the price on the home favorite highly attractive. Back the Pirates to keep rolling and secure another victory at PNC Park.
Injuries noted
Pirates: [KNOWN] Joey Bart (C) — Foot (Left): Manager Don Kelly said Bart, who is out of the lineup for Tuesday's game against the Rockies, is "banged up," Chris Halicke of DK Pittsburgh Sports reports. (May 12 — 14d ago) [KNOWN] Will Robertson (Left Fielder) — Undisclosed (Not Specified): The Orioles reassigned Robertson to minor-league camp Wednesday, Jacob Calvin Meyer of The Baltimore Sun reports. (May 8 — 19d ago) [NEW] Ryan O'Hearn (RF) — Quadriceps (Right): O'Hearn (quadriceps) worked out in the outfield ahead of Monday's game against the Cubs, MLB.com reports. (May 25 — 1d ago) [KNOWN] Chris Devenski (RP) — Illness (Not Specified): Devenski (illness) was cleared to resume all baseball activities last week and began throwing bullpen sessions May 13, Colin Beazley of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports. (May 21 — 6d ago) Cubs: [KNOWN] Riley Martin (RP) — Elbow (Left): Martin has been diagnosed with flexor strain in his left elbow and is expected to miss eight weeks, Taylor McGregor of Marquee Sports Network reports. (May 8 — 19d ago) [KNOWN] Cade Horton (Starting Pitcher) — Elbow (Right): The Cubs transferred Horton (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Saturday, Andy Martinez of Marquee Sports Network reports. (May 8 — 19d ago) [KNOWN] Julian Merryweather (Relief Pitcher) — Hamstring (Left): Merryweather (hamstring) will begin a rehab assignment with the Twins' rookie-level Florida Complex League affiliate Tuesday, Theodore Tollefson of ZoneCoverage.com reports. (May 8 — 19d ago) [NEW] Matthew Boyd (SP) — Knee (Left): Boyd (knee) will make a rehab start with Triple-A Iowa on Sunday, Bruce Levine of 670TheScore.com reports. (May 26 — 0d ago) [NEW] Edward Cabrera (SP) — Finger (Right): Cabrera was removed from Wednesday's game against the Brewers with a blister on his right middle finger, Jared Wyllys of AllCHGO.com reports. (May 24 — 3d ago) [KNOWN] Matt Shaw (RF) — Back: Shaw went 3-for-4 with a double, a solo home run and an additional run scored in Wednesday's 5-4 win over the Padres. (May 22 — 5d ago) [KNOWN] Hunter Harvey (Relief Pitcher) — Triceps (Right): The Cubs moved Harvey (triceps) from the 15-day IL to the 60-day IL on Sunday. (May 17 — 10d ago) [KNOWN] Porter Hodge (Relief Pitcher) — Elbow (Right): The Cubs transferred Hodge (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Friday, Taylor McGregor of Marquee Sports Network reports. (May 8 — 19d ago)
Props on this game
2Oneil CruzOVER 1.5 H+R+RBI H+R+RBI-118
LActual 0
Oneil Cruz is the hottest hitter in the Pirates' lineup, riding a stretch where he has batted .366 with 10 RBIs over his last 10 games. He faces Jameson Taillon, who is currently the most vulnerable pitcher in the league regarding the long ball, surrendering a major-league-leading 17 home runs in just 10 starts.
Taillon's struggle with hard contact and fly balls (6.11 ERA over last 5 starts) aligns poorly with Cruz's elite exit velocity and power. With the Pirates coming off a 12-run performance and the wind blowing out toward right field, Cruz is in a prime position to accumulate multiple production stats.
He has recorded at least one hit in every game of his last 10-game stretch, often supplemented by the RBIs generated by the Pirates' top-of-the-order hitters reaching base ahead of him.
Ian HappUNDER 1.5 H+R+RBI H+R+RBI-130
LActual 8
Ian Happ is currently struggling with significant swing-and-miss issues, striking out 20 times in his last 40 at-bats (50% K rate). He faces Bubba Chandler, a high-upside right-hander who demonstrated his strikeout potential with 11 Ks in his most recent outing.
The Chicago Cubs' offense is in a deep freeze, scoring just one run in each of the first two games of this series. With Happ batting fifth in a lineup that is failing to sustain rallies, his opportunities for RBIs and runs scored are severely limited.
While he possesses home run power that can occasionally clear this line in one swing, his extreme strikeout rate against a power-pitcher like Chandler makes the Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs the more probable outcome in the Cubs' current offensive environment.
Every pick posts before the game and is graded after, in public. In the app you can ride or fade any of them, and your book keeps score against Gary's.
Download on the App Store