Astros at Rangers
O/U 7.5 · RL Rangers -1.5 · Globe Life Field
Rangers ML-146
CONF 78%
LLostFinal 4-3
The read
We are live from Arlington, Texas, where the Lone Star State rivalry continues to burn hot as the Texas Rangers and Houston Astros battle in a pivotal divisional rubber match at Globe Life Field. The starting pitching matchup tonight presents a stark contrast that heavily favors the home side, as the Rangers send Jacob deGrom to the mound to face Houston's Mike Burrows. deGrom has been nearly untouchable in front of his home crowd, carrying a spectacular 1.14 ERA at Globe Life Field this season while chasing his milestone 100th career victory. In contrast, Burrows has struggled with high traffic all season, posting a 5.75 ERA and a 1.53 WHIP while allowing three or more runs in seven of his ten starts. In a climate-controlled environment that rewards precision and command, deGrom's ability to minimize baserunners gives the Rangers a monumental advantage starting from the very first pitch.
At the plate, the Rangers' lineup matches up beautifully against the right-handed Burrows. Texas is stacking five left-handed or switch-hitting bats, including Brandon Nimmo, who is currently swinging a hot bat with a .333 average over his last ten games, and Joc Pederson, who is coming off a home run in yesterday's contest. Furthermore, the middle of the Texas order features a blistering Josh Jung, who is hitting .412 over his last ten games and boasts a spectacular 1.000 OPS at home this season. While the Astros counter with an elite pairing of Yordan Alvarez and Christian Walker, who are both on impressive hot streaks, their overall lineup is top-heavy and lacks depth. If deGrom can limit the damage from these two major threats, the bottom half of the Astros' batting order offers very little resistance.
The absolute tipping point in this matchup is the state of the respective bullpens. Houston enters tonight with the worst bullpen ERA in the majors at 5.47, and the unit is thoroughly exhausted after being forced to throw eight innings yesterday following an early rotation meltdown. Even if Burrows manages to keep the game competitive early, the Astros simply do not have the reliable relief arms to protect a close game or keep a surging Texas offense at bay in the later innings. Texas, on the other hand, possesses an incredibly efficient late-inning bridge featuring Jacob Latz, who sports a 2.16 ERA and a 0.60 WHIP, giving them the perfect weapon to neutralize left-handed threats like Alvarez late in the game. With the starting pitching edge, superior bullpen depth, and a more balanced lineup, the Rangers are in prime position to secure the win at home.
Injuries noted
Rangers: [NEW] Josh Smith (2B) — Illness (Right): Smith (illness) is expected to return to Globe Life Field this week, but it's unclear when he'll be ready to ramp up his baseball activities, Jeff Wilson of AllDLLS.com reports. (May 25 — 2d ago) [NEW] Wyatt Langford (Left Fielder) — Forearm (Right): Langford (forearm) will take batting practice Monday and could begin a rehab assignment as soon as this weekend, Kennedi Landry of MLB.com reports. (May 25 — 2d ago) [NEW] Corey Seager (SS) — Back (Not Specified): Seager (back) isn't slated to be re-evaluated for "probably another week," Shawn McFarland of The Dallas Morning News reports. (May 24 — 3d ago) [NEW] Cole Winn (RP) — Arm (Right): Winn (0-1) took the loss against Pittsburgh on Wednesday, allowing three runs on two hits while striking out one over one-third of an inning. (May 24 — 3d ago) [KNOWN] Carter Baumler (RP) — Ribs (Right): Baumler (intercostal) has been shut down from his rehab assignment, MLB.com reports. (May 23 — 4d ago) [KNOWN] Robert Garcia (Relief Pitcher) — Shoulder (Left): Garcia (shoulder) began throwing from 80 feet out Friday, Jeff Wilson of AllDLLS.com reports. (May 8 — 19d ago) Astros: [KNOWN] Grae Kessinger (Third Baseman) — Hamstring (Left): no (May 13 — 14d ago) [NEW] Jose Altuve (2B) — Oblique (Left): Astros manager Joe Espada said Wednesday that the Astros could have Altuve (oblique) simulate at-bats rather than embark on a rehab assignment, Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports. (May 27 — 0d ago) [NEW] Cristian Javier (Starting Pitcher) — Shoulder (Right): Javier (shoulder) is scheduled to throw a live batting practice session Friday, Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports. (May 27 — 0d ago) [NEW] Hunter Brown (Starting Pitcher) — Shoulder (Right): Brown (shoulder) will make his next rehab start this weekend at Triple-A Sugar Land, Brian McTaggart of MLB.com reports. (May 25 — 2d ago) [NEW] Joey Loperfido (Left Fielder) — Quadriceps (Right): Astros manager Joe Espada told reporters Monday that Loperfido (quadriceps) will pause his rehab assignment until Wednesday after fouling a ball off his foot during Sunday's game with Double-A Corpus Christie, Brian McTaggart of MLB.com reports. (May 25 — 2d ago) [NEW] Yainer Diaz (C) — Oblique (Left): Astros general manager Dana Brown said Sunday that Diaz (oblique) is expected to begin a rehab assignment during the first week of June, Brian McTaggart of MLB.com reports. (May 24 — 2d ago) [KNOWN] Lance McCullers Jr. (SP) — Shoulder (Right): McCullers was scratched from his scheduled start against the Twins on Tuesday due to shoulder inflammation, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports. (May 19 — 8d ago) [KNOWN] Carlos Correa (SS) — Ankle (Left): Correa is scheduled to undergo surgery Monday in Houston to repair the tendon in his left ankle, Brian McTaggart of MLB.com reports. (May 10 — 17d ago) [KNOWN] Bennett Sousa (RP) — Elbow (Left): The Astros placed Sousa on the 15-day injured list Saturday with left elbow inflammation, retroactive to Wednesday, Julia Morales of Space City Home Network reports. (May 9 — 18d ago)
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