Reds at Mets
O/U 7.5 · RL Mets -1.5 · Citi Field
Reds ML+118
CONF 75%
WCashedFinal 7-2
The read
Memorial Day baseball from Queens as the Cincinnati Reds roll into Citi Field to take on a reeling New York Mets squad.
The Mets are in a complete tailspin, coming off a brutal weekend where they were swept by the Marlins and managed to score just two total runs across three games. The lineup is severely depleted, with Juan Soto's sudden illness scratching him from the card on Sunday and keeping him out of the starting lineup today, leaving an already struggling offense without its biggest weapon. This lack of firepower makes it difficult to trust them as a favorite, even against a pitcher like Nick Lodolo who has been highly volatile this season. The Mets have the second-most games in the majors with two runs or fewer, and they lack the healthy personnel to exploit Lodolo's command issues.
Cincinnati arrives with a significant situational edge. A Sunday rainout gave their high-leverage bullpen arms a full two days of rest, a massive luxury when backing a starter like Lodolo who often struggles to pitch deep into games. If Lodolo runs into trouble early, the Reds can confidently deploy their rested middle relievers to bridge the gap. Conversely, the Mets' bullpen is in a fragile state, highlighted by closer Devin Williams surrendering a devastating walk-off grand slam on Sunday.
At plus money, the Reds offer exceptional value. They boast a healthy, power-heavy lineup led by Elly De La Cruz and Sal Stewart, who are perfectly positioned to challenge Nolan McLean. Furthermore, the Mets are starting backup catcher Luis Torrens, giving the ultra-aggressive De La Cruz—who is chasing a career steals milestone—a green light to manufacture chaos on the basepaths. With Cincinnati playing solid baseball and the Mets searching for answers during a disastrous stretch, taking the rested road underdog is the smart angle.
Injuries noted
Mets: [KNOWN] Clay Holmes (SP) — Leg (Right): The Mets transferred Holmes (fibula) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Tuesday. (May 19 — 6d ago) [KNOWN] Jared Young (First Baseman) — Knee (Left): Young (knee) will move his rehab assignment from Single-A St. Lucie to Triple-A Syracuse this week, Mike Puma of the New York Post reports. (May 18 — 7d ago) [KNOWN] Francisco Alvarez (C) — Knee (Right): Alvarez is expected to be sidelined eight weeks after undergoing right meniscus surgery Thursday, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports. (May 14 — 11d ago) [KNOWN] Luis Robert Jr. (Center Fielder) — Back (Not Specified): Mets manger Carlos Mendoza said Tuesday that Robert (back) is still experiencing lingering symptoms and "is not progressing the way we would like," Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports. (May 12 — 12d ago) [KNOWN] Kevin Herget (Relief Pitcher) — Undisclosed: Herget signed a minor league contract that includes an invitation to spring training with the Mets on Thursday, Will Sammon of The Athletic reports. (May 8 — 17d ago) [KNOWN] Justin Hagenman (Relief Pitcher) — Ribs: The Mets placed Hagenman on the 60-day injured list Saturday due to a rib fracture. (May 8 — 17d ago) [KNOWN] Ronny Mauricio (SS) — Thumb (Left): The Mets placed Mauricio (thumb) on the 10-day injured list Sunday. (May 8 — 17d ago) [NEW] Francisco Lindor (Shortstop) — Calf (Left): Mets manager Carlos Mendoza said Monday that Lindor (calf) has begun a running progression, Max Goodman of NJ.com reports. (May 25 — 0d ago) [NEW] Juan Soto (LF) — Illness (Not Specified): Soto (illnes) remains out of the lineup for Monday's game against the Reds. (May 25 — 0d ago) [NEW] Jorge Polanco (Second Baseman) — Achilles (Left): Polanco (Achilles) has been taking live at-bats at the Mets' spring training complex at St. Lucie and could begin a rehab assignment soon, Tim Britton of The Athletic reports. (May 25 — 0d ago) [NEW] Kodai Senga (Starting Pitcher) — Back (Not Specified): Senga (back) gave up two earned runs on four hits and a walk over 3.1 innings in a rehab start for Single-A St. Lucie on Friday. He struck out two. (May 23 — 2d ago) Reds: [NEW] Ke'Bryan Hayes (3B) — Back: Hayes is out of the lineup for Wednesday's game against the Phillies. (May 22 — 2d ago) [NEW] Rhett Lowder (SP) — Shoulder (Right): Lowder (shoulder) is expected to face hitters early next week, Charlie Goldsmith of of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports. (May 21 — 3d ago) [KNOWN] Emilio Pagan (RP) — Hamstring (Left): Pagan (hamstring) is throwing from his knees in order to keep throwing while not putting stress on his strained hamstring, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox19.com reports. (May 20 — 5d ago) [KNOWN] Jose Trevino (C) — Hamstring (Left): Trevino is expected to miss 3-to-4 weeks after being diagnosed with a Grade 1 left hamstring strain, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports. (May 18 — 6d ago) [KNOWN] Hunter Greene (Starting Pitcher) — Elbow (Right): Greene (elbow) is scheduled to throw a bullpen session May 26, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports. (May 14 — 11d ago) [KNOWN] Brandon Williamson (Starting Pitcher) — Shoulder (Left): The Reds transferred Williamson (shoulder) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Wednesday. (May 8 — 17d ago)
Props on this game
2Sal StewartOVER 1.5 H+R+RBI H+R+RBI+100
LActual 1
Sal Stewart is currently the most locked-in hitter in the Cincinnati lineup, boasting a .448 average and a massive 1.782 OPS in his limited time at Citi Field. Stewart's elite plate discipline (8 walks in last 10 games) ensures he is frequently on base to score runs, while his position in the cleanup spot provides ample RBI opportunities following high-OBP teammates like JJ Bleday. He faces Nolan McLean, who, despite high strikeout numbers, has struggled with efficiency and run prevention recently, surrendering 14 earned runs across his last five starts. With Stewart reaching base multiple times in the majority of his recent outings, he has several paths to clearing this 1.5 threshold.
Mark VientosUNDER 0.5 Hits Hits+155
Not yet graded
Mark Vientos is in the midst of a profound offensive freeze, having gone hitless in seven straight games and 23 consecutive at-bats. While Reds starter Nick Lodolo has struggled this season (7.20 ERA), Vientos' timing appears completely off, and he now faces a left-handed pitcher while hitting in a hollowed-out Mets lineup. Without the protection of Juan Soto or Francisco Lindor, Vientos is unlikely to see many mistakes to hit. At +155 odds, the value lies in betting against a player who has failed to record a single hit for over a week, regardless of the pitching matchup.
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