Marlins at Blue Jays
O/U 7.5 · RL Blue Jays -1.5 · Rogers Centre
Blue Jays ML-152
CONF 80%
LLostFinal 8-2
The read
Welcome to Rogers Centre, where the roof is open for the first time this season as the Blue Jays look to cool off the visiting Marlins under the evening sky. The story of this game begins and ends with the massive disparity on the mound. Toronto is throwing rookie sensation Trey Yesavage, who has been nothing short of spectacular with a 1.07 ERA and a 10.3 strikeout-per-nine rate. He just carved up the Yankees for six scoreless innings without issuing a single walk and holds a flawless 0.00 ERA at home. On the other side, Miami counters with Janson Junk, a starter currently in a brutal tailspin. Junk has surrendered 19 earned runs over his last three outings, plagued by a low whiff rate and an inability to miss bats that has culminated in a 5.94 road ERA.
Even with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. out of the lineup tonight after an elbow contusion, Toronto's offense is perfectly positioned to punish Junk's contact-heavy approach. The Blue Jays are currently sporting an elite 35.8 percent hard-hit rate and have strategically loaded their lineup with left-handed bats like Yohendrick Pinango and Jesus Sanchez. Sanchez, in particular, is on an absolute tear against his former team, hitting .433 over his last 12 games. While the Marlins arrive with momentum from a recent home sweep, their offense is generating a weak 84.2 mph average exit velocity and a dismal 2.8 percent barrel rate over their recent stretch. They simply are not making the kind of high-quality contact needed to disrupt a pitcher as dialed-in as Yesavage.
If Miami manages to keep this game competitive into the late innings, the bullpen discrepancy heavily favors the home side. Toronto features one of the most lethal late-game combinations in baseball with setup man Tyler Rogers and closer Louis Varland, who boasts a microscopic 0.65 ERA and is a perfect 7-for-7 in save opportunities. Conversely, the Marlins are heavily reliant on a struggling Pete Fairbanks at the back end. With the cooler 62-degree air neutralizing some of Rogers Centre's hitter-friendly characteristics, Yesavage should comfortably navigate the Miami order before handing it over to a lockdown bullpen, securing a comfortable win for Toronto.
Injuries noted
Blue Jays: [NEW] Max Scherzer (Starting Pitcher) — Forearm (Right): Scherzer (forearm) threw around 30 pitches in a bullpen session Friday at Rogers Centre, Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet.ca reports. (May 23 — 2d ago) [NEW] Addison Barger (RF) — Elbow (Right): The Blue Jays are hopeful Barger (elbow) will resume hitting and throwing Sunday, Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet.ca reports. (May 23 — 2d ago) [NEW] Alejandro Kirk (Catcher) — Thumb (Left): Kirk (thumb) will be evaluated by the Blue Jays training staff this weekend as he prepares to take the next step in his rehab, Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet.ca reports. (May 23 — 2d ago) [KNOWN] Jose Berrios (Starting Pitcher) — Elbow (Right): Blue Jays manager John Schneider said that Berrios underwent full Tommy John surgery Wednesday in addition to having a stress fracture repaired, Hazel Mae of Sportsnet reports. (May 20 — 5d ago) [KNOWN] Tommy Nance (RP) — Forearm (Right): Manager John Schneider said Tuesday that the outlook for Nance's forearm injury is a "best case" scenario, Keegan Matheson of MLB.com reports. (May 19 — 5d ago) [KNOWN] Joe Mantiply (RP) — Knee (Left): The Blue Jays placed Mantiply on the 15-day injured list Tuesday, retroactive to May 18, due to left knee inflammation. (May 19 — 6d ago) [KNOWN] Lazaro Estrada (Unspecified Position) — Shoulder (Right): The Blue Jays placed Estrada on the MLB 15-day injured list April 5 with a right shoulder impingement, Keegan Matheson of MLB.com reports. (May 8 — 17d ago) [KNOWN] Cody Ponce (Starting Pitcher) — Knee (Right): Ponce underwent surgery Friday to repair the ACL in his right knee, Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet.ca reports. (May 8 — 17d ago) [NEW] Dylan Cease (SP) — Hamstring (Left): Blue Jays manager John Schneider said after Sunday's 4-1 loss to the Pirates that Cease will undergo an MRI on his left hamstring, Mitch Bannon of The Athletic reports. (May 25 — 0d ago) [NEW] Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (1B) — Elbow (Right): Guerrero (elbow) is absent from the lineup for Monday's game against the Marlins. (May 25 — 0d ago) Marlins: [NEW] Connor Norby (1B) — Elbow (Left): Norby (elbow) is not in the lineup for Monday's contest in Toronto. (May 25 — 0d ago) [NEW] Robby Snelling (SP) — Elbow (Left): Snelling underwent internal brace surgery Friday to repair a torn UCL in his left elbow. (May 22 — 3d ago) [KNOWN] Leo Jimenez (3B) — Concussion (Not Specified): Jimenez will head to the IL after being removed from Tuesday's game against Atlanta, reports Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald. (May 21 — 4d ago) [KNOWN] Griffin Conine (Right Fielder) — Hamstring (Left): Conine will undergo a left hamstring tendon excision next week, Christina De Nicola of MLB.com reports. (May 8 — 17d ago) [KNOWN] Adam Mazur (Starting Pitcher) — Elbow (Right): The Marlins placed Mazur (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday. (May 8 — 17d ago)
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- Board stored May 25, 2026 at 12:18 PM ET.
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Props on this game
2Trey YesavageOVER 5.5 Strikeouts Strikeouts-144
WActual 6
Trey Yesavage has been the primary bright spot in a Toronto rotation currently missing four of its projected five starters. The rookie right-hander has translated his dominant spring into regular-season success, maintaining a 1.07 ERA and striking out 29 batters in just 25.1 innings.
Yesavage has hit the 'over' on this 5.5 line in 80% of his starts this year, including high-strikeout performances against disciplined lineups like the Yankees. Tonight, he faces a Marlins lineup that is top-heavy with contact hitters but incredibly vulnerable in the middle and bottom; Kyle Stowers and Jakob Marsee have combined for 21 strikeouts over their last 10 games.
Furthermore, because the Blue Jays' bullpen is taxed by rotation injuries, manager John Schneider is incentivized to let Yesavage pitch deeper into the game, maximizing his strikeout opportunities.
Jesus SanchezOVER 1.5 H+R+RBI H+R+RBI+130
LActual 1
Jesus Sanchez is arguably the hottest hitter in the American League right now, and he enters this series with a significant 'revenge' narrative against his former club. Sanchez has been elite at finding gaps recently, evidenced by his .433 average over his last 12 games and his status as the primary run producer in the absence of Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
He faces a major mismatch in Janson Junk, who has been a 'home run machine' for opponents lately, surrendering five long balls in his last three outings. Sanchez possesses the platoon advantage as a left-handed hitter against the right-handed Junk, whose low whiff rate (18.7%) suggests Sanchez will see plenty of contactable pitches.
With the Rogers Centre roof open and wind blowing out to center field, Sanchez is well-positioned to record multiple production events (hits, runs, or RBIs) against a pitcher currently struggling with location and velocity.
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