Cardinals at Brewers
O/U 7.5 · RL Brewers -1.5 · American Family Field
Cardinals ML+184
CONF 65%
LLostFinal 1-5
The read
We’re at American Family Field this Memorial Day afternoon for a high-stakes NL Central clash as the Cardinals visit the division-leading Brewers. The market has priced Milwaukee at an exorbitant number today, almost entirely due to Jacob Misiorowski's incredible 24.1-inning scoreless streak. While his 1.89 ERA and strikeout numbers are genuinely elite, baseball is a game of regression, and the Cardinals have the offensive profile to finally crack him. St. Louis relies heavily on Jordan Walker and Alec Burleson, both of whom carry massive OPS numbers against right-handed pitching, while Ivan Herrera has already proven he can take Misiorowski deep this season.
On the other side, Matthew Liberatore's recent numbers look highly concerning, posting a 6.65 ERA over his last five starts. However, this is the exact opponent he needs to see to get back on track. Liberatore holds a dominant 1.26 career ERA against the Brewers, demonstrating a clear historical comfort level against this lineup. He's also catching a significant break from the weather today, as a 10 mph wind blowing in from right field will help suppress the left-handed power that the Brewers usually rely on to generate offense.
The true edge that makes the Cardinals such a live underdog is the massive rest discrepancy in the bullpens. St. Louis had their Sunday game rained out, meaning their high-leverage arms—including closer Riley O'Brien and setup man Gordon Graceffo—are completely fresh and ready to cover multiple innings. Milwaukee is limping out of a brutal weekend series against the Dodgers where they were outscored 16-4 in the final two games, leaving their already injury-depleted bullpen fatigued. If Liberatore can pitch to his historical baseline against the Brewers, the Cardinals' rested relievers give them a massive advantage in the late innings.
Injuries noted
Brewers: [NEW] Logan Henderson (SP) — Back: Henderson (2-1) earned the win Friday against the Dodgers after tossing five scoreless innings, giving up two hits and three walks while striking out seven. (May 25 — 0d ago) [KNOWN] Brandon Woodruff (SP) — Shoulder (Right): Woodruff (shoulder) is tentatively scheduled to face hitters Friday, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports. (May 18 — 6d ago) [KNOWN] Rob Zastryzny (Relief Pitcher) — Ribs (Left): Zastryzny (shoulder/ribs) will resume a rehab assignment with Triple-A Nashville on Wednesday, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports. (May 12 — 12d ago) [KNOWN] Jared Koenig (Relief Pitcher) — Elbow (Left): Koenig (elbow) will throw a bullpen session Tuesday, Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports. (May 12 — 12d ago) [KNOWN] Brandon Lockridge (LF) — Knee (Right): Lockridge is expected to be sidelined until mid-to-late June after an MRI on his right knee showed a bone bruise, Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports. (May 12 — 12d ago) [KNOWN] Angel Zerpa (Relief Pitcher) — Elbow (Left): Zerpa will undergo UCL reconstruction on his left elbow next week, Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports. (May 8 — 17d ago) Cardinals: [NEW] Nathan Church (LF) — Shoulder (Left): Church (lower body) is expected to be placed on the 10-day injured list Friday, Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat reports. (May 22 — 2d ago) [KNOWN] Ramon Urias (3B) — Elbow (Right): Urias (elbow) will begin taking dry swings this week, the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports. (May 21 — 4d ago)
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Board stored May 25, 2026 at 12:18 PM ET.
- Odds record
- The displayed line is the value retained with the call. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, fanatics, caesars, draftkings, betmgm, betrivers.
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- Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.
Props on this game
2Jacob MisiorowskiOVER 8.5 Strikeouts Strikeouts+122
WActual 12
Jacob Misiorowski is currently the most dominant strikeout pitcher in the National League, leading the majors with 88 strikeouts in just 57 innings. His 13.9 K/9 rate is elite, and his recent form suggests he is only getting stronger, entering this contest on a 24.1-inning scoreless streak.
Over his last five starts, Misiorowski has recorded strikeout totals of 8, 10, 11, 8, and 9, clearing this 8.5 line in 60% of those games and recording at least 8 in 100% of them. The Cardinals lineup, while productive, features high-strikeout threats in the middle of the order like Nolan Gorman and Jordan Walker.
With the wind blowing in from right field at 10 mph, Misiorowski is less likely to be hurt by fly balls, which should allow him to pitch deep enough into the game to reach this high strikeout ceiling.
William ContrerasOVER 1.5 H+R+RBI H+R+RBI-146
WActual 3
William Contreras has been the engine of the Brewers' offense, maintaining a .354 average on the season and a 10-game hitting streak. He faces a highly favorable matchup against left-hander Matthew Liberatore, whose 4.70 ERA is masked by a much more concerning 5.67 xERA and a bloated 1.55 WHIP.
Liberatore has struggled with command and contact, giving up 16 hits over his last 9.2 innings of work. Batting third in the Brewers' lineup, Contreras is in a prime position to accumulate hits, runs, and RBIs, especially with high-OBP players like Jackson Chourio and Brice Turang hitting ahead of him.
Despite the wind blowing in, Contreras's ability to drive the ball to all fields and his current hot streak (.341 L10) make him a high-floor candidate to clear this 1.5 line.
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