Rockies at Diamondbacks
O/U 8.5 · RL Diamondbacks -1.5 · Chase Field
Diamondbacks ML-198
CONF 85%
WCashedFinal 4-5
The read
Under the closed roof of Chase Field this afternoon, the Diamondbacks look to put the finishing touches on a series win against a reeling Rockies squad. The pitching matchup here features a fascinating collision of underlying metrics, but the advantage leans heavily toward the home team's offense in this specific spot. Colorado sends veteran lefty Jose Quintana to the mound, and while his surface-level numbers look respectable, he is navigating a razor-thin margin for error. Over his last five starts, his FIP sits at an alarming 5.41, indicating he has been incredibly fortunate with balls in play and sequencing. That luck is highly likely to evaporate against an Arizona lineup that absolutely mashes left-handed pitching, featuring switch-hitters like Ketel Marte and reverse-platoon threats like Corbin Carroll, who boasts a staggering 1.179 OPS against southpaws this year.
On the other side, Arizona's Ryne Nelson has admittedly struggled mightily in his home ballpark this season, carrying an ERA over 7.00 at Chase Field. However, his underlying expected metrics suggest he is a prime candidate for positive regression, especially with today's closed-roof environment neutralizing the high-flying desert air that often exacerbates his home run issues. More importantly, Nelson has a distinct tactical advantage: the Rockies' lineup is currently dealing with critical fresh injuries. Without outfielders Brenton Doyle and Mickey Moniak, who both went down in recent days, Colorado is fielding a makeshift alignment that not only limits their offensive ceiling but creates massive defensive liabilities in Arizona's spacious gaps.
When you factor in the late innings, the disparity between these two clubs becomes even more pronounced. The Diamondbacks have managed their high-leverage relief arms masterfully this month, leaving top options like Paul Sewald completely fresh for today's series finale. Colorado, meanwhile, is attempting to piece together a bullpen that lacks high-end swing-and-miss stuff and is dealing with a high team WHIP. Arizona is surging in the standings with a 7-3 mark in their last ten games, highly motivated to keep pace in the crowded NL West, and holds every matchup edge from the starting lineup to the back of the bullpen. They are well-positioned to comfortably win this game.
Injuries noted
Diamondbacks: [NEW] Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (LF) — Hamstring (Left): Gurriel's hamstring injury is believed to be fairly minor, Nick Piecoro of The Arizona Republic reports. Manager Torey Lovullo said Saturday the hope is Gurriel will be able to return from the injured list when first eligible. (May 23 — 0d ago) [KNOWN] James McCann (C) — Quadriceps (Right): Manager Torey Lovullo said Tuesday that McCann (quad) will likely be sidelined for 4-to-6 weeks, Nick Piecoro of The Arizona Republic reports. (May 19 — 4d ago) [KNOWN] Jordan Lawlar (Shortstop) — Wrist (Right): Diamondbacks manager Torey Lovullo said Monday that Lawlar has resumed light baseball activities after a CT scan showed his fractured right wrist is healing well, Alex Weiner of ArizonaSports.com reports. (May 18 — 5d ago) [KNOWN] Pavin Smith (Left Fielder) — Elbow (Left): Smith (elbow ) has begun a throwing program, MLB.com reports. (May 16 — 8d ago) [KNOWN] Carlos Santana (First Baseman) — Thigh (Right): Santana suffered a setback with his right adductor strain Sunday while on a rehab assignment with Triple-A Reno, Nick Piecoro of The Arizona Republic reports. (May 11 — 12d ago) [KNOWN] Rene Pinto (Catcher) — Undisclosed (Not Specified): Pinto (undisclosed) began a rehab assignment Monday, Kristie Ackert of the Tampa Bay Times reports. (May 8 — 16d ago) [KNOWN] Jeff Brigham (Relief Pitcher) — Undisclosed (Not Specified): Brigham was placed on the 7-day injured list at Triple-A St. Paul, retroactive to April 6, with a left oblique strain, TwinsDaily.com reports. (May 8 — 16d ago) Rockies: [NEW] Willi Castro (2B) — Back: Castro is out of the lineup against Texas on Wednesday (May 23 — 0d ago) [NEW] Mickey Moniak (LF) — Ankle (Right): Moniak is not in the starting lineup Thursday night against Arizona. (May 22 — 1d ago) [NEW] Brenton Doyle (CF) — Oblique (Left): The Rockies announced that Doyle is considered day-to-day after suffering a left oblique contusion during Tuesday's 10-0 loss to the Rangers, Manny Randhawa of MLB.com reports. (May 21 — 2d ago) [NEW] Chase Dollander (SP) — Elbow (Right): Rockies manager Warren Schaeffer said Wednesday that Dollander (elbow) will be shut down from throwing for the next 2-to-3 weeks, MLB.com reports. (May 20 — 3d ago) [KNOWN] Victor Vodnik (RP) — Elbow (Right): Vodnik (1-2) picked up the win in Friday's 9-7 extra-innings victory over the Phillies, walking one and striking out two over two scoreless, no-hit innings. (May 20 — 4d ago) [KNOWN] Ryan Feltner (Starting Pitcher) — Elbow (Right): Feltner (elbow) struck out four and allowed three hits and no walks over 3.2 scoreless innings in a rehab start Tuesday with Double-A Hartford. (May 20 — 4d ago) [KNOWN] Jordan Beck (LF) — Hamstring (Left): Beck went 1-for-4 with a double and an RBI on Saturday against Atlanta. (May 18 — 5d ago) [KNOWN] Jimmy Herget (RP) — Shoulder (Right): The Rockies reinstated Herget (personal) from the bereavement list Tuesday. (May 14 — 10d ago)
Props on this game
2Troy JohnstonOVER 1.5 Total Bases Total Bases+125
WActual 2
Troy Johnston has a pronounced statistical advantage against right-handed pitching, slashing .355 with a .924 OPS this season. He faces Ryne Nelson, who has struggled significantly at Chase Field, posting a 7.61 ERA and allowing 1.90 HR/9 at home. Johnston is batting cleanup for the Rockies, ensuring high volume in a matchup where he has a clear split advantage. Nelson's vulnerability to extra-base hits makes this 1.5 total base line very attainable for a hitter with Johnston's profile.
Ildemaro VargasOVER 0.5 Total Bases Total Bases+150
LActual 0
Ildemaro Vargas is in a prime production spot batting fifth in the Diamondbacks order. As a switch-hitter, he holds a neutral matchup against the left-handed Jose Quintana, whose underlying metrics (4.48 xERA and 1.41 WHIP) suggest he allows more baserunners than his surface ERA indicates. Vargas only needs a single hit to clear this line, and with the Diamondbacks' offense clicking (4.5 R/G) and Quintana's tendency to permit contact, he should see multiple opportunities with runners on base or in high-leverage counts to drive the ball.
Every pick posts before the game and is graded after, in public. In the app you can ride or fade any of them, and your book keeps score against Gary's.
Download on the App Store