Mets at Marlins
O/U 7.5 · RL Marlins -1.5 · loanDepot park
Marlins ML-124
CONF 85%
WCashedFinal 0-4
The read
We wrap up the weekend at loanDepot park where the Miami Marlins look to bring out the brooms and complete a three-game sweep over their division rivals, the New York Mets. The defining factor for this series finale happened before the first pitch was even thrown, as the Mets scratched Juan Soto from the lineup due to an illness. New York was already operating with a heavily depleted roster, but losing their primary run producer—who accounts for a massive chunk of their offensive output—leaves a skeletal lineup that has managed just two total runs through the first two games of this series. Against a struggling offense, the Marlins are transitioning Tyler Phillips from the bullpen to a spot-starting role. Phillips has been nothing short of spectacular at home this season, carrying a flawless 0.00 ERA over 19.1 innings in Miami, and his ability to limit hard contact pairs perfectly with the controlled environment of a closed roof.
On the mound for the Mets is right-hander Christian Scott, an arm with elite strikeout stuff who simply cannot find the strike zone with enough consistency to pitch deep into games. Scott’s bloated 13.3 percent walk rate is a major liability, especially against a Marlins lineup uniquely constructed to exploit him. Miami rolls out four left-handed batters and a switch-hitter in their top six spots, putting them in an ideal platoon advantage to test Scott’s command early and often. Furthermore, Scott has historically struggled against Miami with a career ERA approaching 8.00, and his tendency to exit by the fourth inning puts immense pressure on a vulnerable Mets bullpen.
The momentum and situational advantages are all pointing toward the home dugout today. The Marlins are a significantly better team in their own building, boasting a winning record at home while the Mets continue to flounder on the road. With Miami’s contact-heavy offense riding the hot hand of Liam Hicks and Otto Lopez, they are built to capitalize on free passes and put pressure on New York’s defense. Without their biggest bat to bail them out, the Mets simply lack the firepower to keep pace in this divisional matchup. Back the Marlins to close out the sweep.
Injuries noted
Marlins: [NEW] Robby Snelling (SP) — Elbow (Left): Snelling underwent internal brace surgery Friday to repair a torn UCL in his left elbow. (May 22 — 1d ago) [NEW] Leo Jimenez (3B) — Concussion (Not Specified): Jimenez will head to the IL after being removed from Tuesday's game against Atlanta, reports Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald. (May 21 — 2d ago) [KNOWN] Griffin Conine (Right Fielder) — Hamstring (Left): Conine will undergo a left hamstring tendon excision next week, Christina De Nicola of MLB.com reports. (May 8 — 16d ago) [KNOWN] Adam Mazur (Starting Pitcher) — Elbow (Right): The Marlins placed Mazur (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday. (May 8 — 16d ago) Mets: [KNOWN] Jared Young (First Baseman) — Knee (Left): Young (knee) will move his rehab assignment from Single-A St. Lucie to Triple-A Syracuse this week, Mike Puma of the New York Post reports. (May 18 — 6d ago) [KNOWN] Francisco Lindor (Shortstop) — Calf (Left): The Mets "have hope" that Lindor (calf) will return to the active roster in about a month, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports. (May 18 — 6d ago) [KNOWN] Jorge Polanco (Second Baseman) — Achilles (Left): Polanco (Achilles) is traveling with the Mets during their road trip through Washington and Miami this week, Tim Britton of The Athletic reports. (May 18 — 6d ago) [KNOWN] Francisco Alvarez (C) — Knee (Right): Alvarez is expected to be sidelined eight weeks after undergoing right meniscus surgery Thursday, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports. (May 14 — 10d ago) [KNOWN] Luis Robert Jr. (Center Fielder) — Back (Not Specified): Mets manger Carlos Mendoza said Tuesday that Robert (back) is still experiencing lingering symptoms and "is not progressing the way we would like," Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports. (May 12 — 11d ago) [KNOWN] Kevin Herget (Relief Pitcher) — Undisclosed: Herget signed a minor league contract that includes an invitation to spring training with the Mets on Thursday, Will Sammon of The Athletic reports. (May 8 — 16d ago) [KNOWN] Justin Hagenman (Relief Pitcher) — Ribs: The Mets placed Hagenman on the 60-day injured list Saturday due to a rib fracture. (May 8 — 16d ago) [KNOWN] Ronny Mauricio (SS) — Thumb (Left): The Mets placed Mauricio (thumb) on the 10-day injured list Sunday. (May 8 — 16d ago) [NEW] Juan Soto (LF) — Illness: Soto is no longer in the Mets' starting lineup for Sunday's series finale against the Marlins after coming down with the flu, Abbey Mastracco of the New York Daily News reports. (May 24 — 0d ago) [NEW] Kodai Senga (Starting Pitcher) — Back (Not Specified): Senga (back) gave up two earned runs on four hits and a walk over 3.1 innings in a rehab start for Single-A St. Lucie on Friday. He struck out two. (May 23 — 1d ago) [KNOWN] Clay Holmes (SP) — Leg (Right): The Mets transferred Holmes (fibula) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Tuesday. (May 19 — 4d ago)
About this analysis
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- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
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- Board stored May 24, 2026 at 10:50 AM ET.
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- The displayed line is the value retained with the call. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, fanatics, betrivers, caesars, betmgm, draftkings.
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Props on this game
2Xavier EdwardsOVER 1.5 H+R+RBI H+R+RBI-140
WActual 3
Xavier Edwards is the most consistent offensive force for the Marlins right now, having recorded a .405 average over his last 10 games. His ability to make contact (only 4 Ks in his last 37 ABs) is a perfect matchup against Christian Scott, who relies on strikeouts but often loses his command (13.3% walk rate).
With a high 1.47 WHIP, Scott frequently allows the types of baserunners that Edwards excels at driving in or advancing. Batting second, Edwards will have high-volume opportunities to score or record RBIs, especially given that Liam Hicks (hitting 1st) and the heart of the order have been productive during Miami's current winning streak.
Scott's career 7.88 ERA against Miami suggests the Marlins' contact-heavy approach consistently disrupts his rhythm.
Mark VientosUNDER 1.5 H+R+RBI H+R+RBI-130
WActual 0
Mark Vientos is currently in a severe offensive drought, having gone hitless in his last 23 at-bats (0-for-23 over his last 7 games). This slump is amplified by the Mets' overall offensive struggles, as the team has managed only two runs in the first two games of this series.
Vientos is also severely disadvantaged by the matchup; he is batting just .198 against right-handed pitching this season and faces Tyler Phillips, who has been dominant with a 1.20 ERA. Without the lineup protection of Juan Soto and Francisco Lindor, Vientos is seeing fewer quality pitches to hit.
The pitcher-friendly environment of loanDepot park further suppresses the power potential he would need to clear this multi-stat line in a single swing.
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