Dodgers at Brewers
O/U 8 · RL Dodgers -1.5 · American Family Field
Dodgers ML-156
CONF 85%
WCashedFinal 5-1
The read
It's a beautiful Sunday afternoon at American Family Field as two division leaders clash in a high-stakes rubber match, with the Dodgers sending their ace to the mound to face a scrappy Brewers squad. The starting pitching disparity in this series finale is simply too wide to ignore. Yoshinobu Yamamoto takes the ball for Los Angeles, bringing elite control and a track record of pitching deep into games, completing at least six innings in four of his last five outings. While he has occasionally been vulnerable in the first inning, his overall pedigree vastly overshadows Milwaukee rookie Brandon Sproat. The young right-hander has failed to reach the sixth inning in any of his last five starts and carries a dangerous 1.50 WHIP, driven largely by persistent command issues.
That lack of control is a recipe for disaster against a patient, left-handed-heavy Dodgers lineup that thrives on reaching base. Sproat will have to navigate a gauntlet that includes Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, and Kyle Tucker. Ohtani enters today riding a nine-game hitting streak where he is batting .457, and Teoscar Hernández is fresh off a massive six-RBI performance in yesterday's blowout win. The Dodgers are perfectly constructed to expose Sproat's free passes, driving up his pitch count early and forcing the Brewers to turn to their thinned-out middle relief corps much sooner than they can afford.
Once Los Angeles builds an advantage, their relief staff is currently operating at a historic level. The Dodgers' bullpen enters this contest riding a staggering 36-inning scoreless streak. Even with the late-breaking absence of Tanner Scott, they have more than enough high-leverage arms to shut the door. After dropping Friday's opener, the Dodgers' offense woke up with 11 runs on Saturday, snapping a long regular-season losing streak against Milwaukee and entirely shifting the momentum of the series. Backed by their ace and an impenetrable bullpen, the Dodgers have all the structural advantages needed to dominate this matchup and secure the series win on the road.
Injuries noted
Brewers: [KNOWN] Brandon Woodruff (SP) — Shoulder (Right): Woodruff (shoulder) is tentatively scheduled to face hitters Friday, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports. (May 18 — 5d ago) [KNOWN] Akil Baddoo (Left Fielder) — Quadriceps (Left): Baddoo (quadriceps) will begin a rehab assignment Friday, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports. (May 12 — 11d ago) [KNOWN] Rob Zastryzny (Relief Pitcher) — Ribs (Left): Zastryzny (shoulder/ribs) will resume a rehab assignment with Triple-A Nashville on Wednesday, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports. (May 12 — 11d ago) [KNOWN] Jared Koenig (Relief Pitcher) — Elbow (Left): Koenig (elbow) will throw a bullpen session Tuesday, Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports. (May 12 — 11d ago) [KNOWN] Brandon Lockridge (LF) — Knee (Right): Lockridge is expected to be sidelined until mid-to-late June after an MRI on his right knee showed a bone bruise, Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports. (May 12 — 11d ago) [KNOWN] Angel Zerpa (Relief Pitcher) — Elbow (Left): Zerpa will undergo UCL reconstruction on his left elbow next week, Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports. (May 8 — 16d ago) Dodgers: [NEW] Max Muncy (3B) — Wrist (Right): Muncy (wrist) is not in the Dodgers' starting lineup against the Brewers on Sunday. (May 24 — 0d ago) [NEW] Brock Stewart (RP) — Foot (Left): Stewart (foot) has started a throwing program, per MLB.com. (May 22 — 2d ago) [KNOWN] Blake Snell (SP) — Elbow (Left): Snell (elbow) will undergo the same "nano scope" procedure Tuesday that Tarik Skubal had earlier in May, Alden Gonzalez of ESPN.com reports. (May 18 — 5d ago) [KNOWN] Tyler Glasnow (SP) — Back (Not Specified): Glasnow (back) has not yet resumed throwing off a mound after his back flared up, Sonja Chen of MLB.com reports. (May 18 — 5d ago) [KNOWN] Ben Casparius (Relief Pitcher) — Shoulder (Right): Casparius (shoulder) was moved to the 60-day injured list Monday. (May 18 — 5d ago) [KNOWN] Jack Dreyer (RP) — Shoulder (Left): The Dodgers placed Dreyer on the 15-day injured list Sunday due to left shoulder discomfort. (May 17 — 6d ago) [KNOWN] Edwin Diaz (Relief Pitcher) — Elbow (Right): no (May 10 — 13d ago) [KNOWN] Landon Knack (Starting Pitcher) — Chest (Not Specified): The Dodgers transferred Knack (chest) to the 60-day injured list Tuesday. (May 8 — 16d ago) [KNOWN] Gavin Stone (Starting Pitcher) — Shoulder (Right): Stone (shoulder) has resumed throwing, per MLB.com. (May 8 — 16d ago)
Props on this game
2Yoshinobu YamamotoOVER 17.5 Pitcher Outs Pitcher Outs-150
WActual 21
Yamamoto has established himself as the workhorse of a depleted Dodgers rotation. Over his last five starts, he has completed at least 6.0 innings four times, including two 7-inning performances.
He faces a Brewers lineup that, while leading the NL Central, is prone to strikeouts from young hitters like Jackson Chourio and Garrett Mitchell. Yamamoto's elite 0.96 WHIP indicates he avoids the high pitch counts associated with frequent baserunners, allowing him to pitch deeper into games.
Despite the Dodgers' dominant bullpen, they will look to Yamamoto to provide length to preserve that relief corps for the upcoming week.
Shohei OhtaniOVER 1.5 Total Bases Total Bases+104
LActual 0
Ohtani is in a prime power position facing rookie Brandon Sproat, who has struggled significantly with HR suppression and command (1.50 WHIP). Sproat has surrendered 5 home runs in his last 22.5 innings, a major vulnerability against Ohtani, who has 4 HRs in his last 10 games.
Ohtani is hitting lead-off, ensuring he gets maximum plate appearances. While the wind is blowing in at 5 mph, Ohtani's elite exit velocity typically makes him weather-proof.
Sproat's tendency to put runners on via the walk will likely force him to challenge Ohtani with fastballs in the zone to avoid a massive multi-run inning.
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