Cardinals at Reds
O/U 9.5 · RL Reds -1.5 · Great American Ball Park
Cardinals MoneylineThe pick & result
- Published pick
- Cardinals ML +102
- Published odds
- +102
- Result
- Awaiting grade
- Final score
- Not available
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
The read
We’re set for a Sunday afternoon rubber match at Great American Ball Park as the Cardinals and Reds look to break a series tie after an exhausting Saturday doubleheader. The starting pitching matchup features two arms dealing with entirely different kinds of pressure. Cincinnati sends out veteran Brady Singer, who is in the midst of a disastrous month, allowing 16 earned runs over his last four starts with a ballooning 1.70 WHIP. St. Louis counters with rookie Brycen Mautz making his Major League debut. While Mautz comes with the unpredictability of a rookie in a notoriously hitter-friendly park, Singer's sheer inability to limit baserunners right now makes him a severe liability against a Cardinals lineup making exceptionally loud contact.
St. Louis holds massive tactical advantages at the plate today. Alec Burleson has absolutely owned Singer in the past, boasting a 1.518 OPS in their head-to-head history, and rookie Bryan Torres has been a nightmare for right-handed pitching with a 1.357 OPS. The Cardinals are carrying a 50 percent hard-hit rate over their last three games, a dangerous recipe for a pitcher like Singer who is giving up nearly 1.5 hits per inning in his recent form. On the other side, while Elly De La Cruz is a monster at home, St. Louis possesses elite run prevention behind the dish. Catcher Pedro Pagés sports a 31.4 percent caught-stealing rate, directly countering the chaotic speed game Cincinnati relies on to manufacture runs.
After both teams logged 20 innings of baseball yesterday, bullpen depth is the ultimate deciding factor this afternoon. Singer has failed to complete six innings in four of his last five starts, meaning a heavily taxed Cincinnati relief corps will be asked to do heavy lifting early. The Cardinals simply have the far superior back-end stability, anchored by Riley O'Brien and multi-inning weapon Gordon Graceffo. Between the Cardinals' platoon advantages against a reeling veteran starter and their significantly deeper, more reliable bullpen, St. Louis possesses the clear structural edge to take this series finale on the road at a valuable plus-money price.
Injuries noted
Reds: [NEW] Ke'Bryan Hayes (3B) — Back: Hayes is out of the lineup for Wednesday's game against the Phillies. (May 22 — 1d ago) [NEW] Rhett Lowder (SP) — Shoulder (Right): Lowder (shoulder) is expected to face hitters early next week, Charlie Goldsmith of of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports. (May 21 — 2d ago) [KNOWN] Emilio Pagan (RP) — Hamstring (Left): Pagan (hamstring) is throwing from his knees in order to keep throwing while not putting stress on his strained hamstring, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox19.com reports. (May 20 — 4d ago) [KNOWN] Jose Trevino (C) — Hamstring (Left): Trevino is expected to miss 3-to-4 weeks after being diagnosed with a Grade 1 left hamstring strain, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports. (May 18 — 5d ago) [KNOWN] Hunter Greene (Starting Pitcher) — Elbow (Right): Greene (elbow) is scheduled to throw a bullpen session May 26, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports. (May 14 — 10d ago) [KNOWN] Brandon Williamson (Starting Pitcher) — Shoulder (Left): The Reds transferred Williamson (shoulder) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Wednesday. (May 8 — 16d ago) Cardinals: [NEW] Nathan Church (LF) — Shoulder (Left): Church (lower body) is expected to be placed on the 10-day injured list Friday, Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat reports. (May 22 — 1d ago) [NEW] Ramon Urias (3B) — Elbow (Right): Urias (elbow) will begin taking dry swings this week, the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports. (May 21 — 3d ago)
About this analysis
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- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Daily picks first stored May 24, 2026 at 10:50 AM ET.
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Props on this game
2- GARY'S PICKJORDAN WALKERTOTAL BASES OVER 1.5
Jordan Walker is currently one of the premier power threats in the league, and today's matchup against Brady Singer is statistically ideal. Singer has been in a severe tailspin, posting a 7.57 ERA over his last five starts and demonstrating extreme vulnerability to the long ball (11 HR allowed in that span).
Walker has shown he can capitalize on this, having homered in both games of yesterday's doubleheader and maintaining a superior .311 average against right-handed pitching. Playing in the hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park with wind blowing out to left field (his pull side) provides a significant ceiling for extra-base hits.
Given his spot in the heart of the order (4th), he will see high-leverage opportunities against a pitcher currently struggling to locate his sinker.
- GARY'S PICKELLY DE LA CRUZH+R+RBI OVER 1.5
Elly De La Cruz is the engine of the Reds' offense, and his breakthrough performance in yesterday's second game (a three-run home run) suggests he is exiting his mid-May slump. He faces Matthew Liberatore, a left-hander who has struggled significantly with a 6.13 ERA and a 1.50+ WHIP over his last five outings. As a switch-hitter batting second, De La Cruz will have multiple opportunities to drive in runs or reach base and score in a park that maximizes his speed and power. Even a single hit coupled with his high stolen-base threat puts him in a strong position to cross the plate, and his power profile against a struggling lefty makes a multi-HRR game highly probable in this high-total (9.5) environment.
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