Yankees at Orioles
O/U 9 · RL Yankees -1.5 · Oriole Park at Camden Yards
Yankees ML-154
CONF 85%
LLostFinal 2-3
The read
The Yankees roll into Camden Yards looking to reclaim the top spot in the AL East, while a depleted Orioles squad tries to navigate a rotation crisis that has left them reeling. This matchup is defined by a massive structural advantage for New York, starting with the glaring statistical wall the Orioles hit when facing left-handed pitching. Baltimore is a staggering 0-9 this season against left-handed starters, and tonight they draw Ryan Weathers, a lefty who already dismantled them for just one run over five innings earlier this month. The middle of the Orioles' order is effectively paralyzed in this split; marquee signing Pete Alonso is hitting just .195 against southpaws, and Tyler O'Neill has been virtually non-existent with a .087 average.
On the other side of the ball, Brandon Young is being thrust into a role he is ill-equipped for against this specific New York lineup. Young has a massive platoon disadvantage, sporting an ERA north of 6.00 against left-handed hitters and surrendering every single one of his home runs this season to lefties. The Yankees are strategically countering by starting seven left-handed bats, including the red-hot Cody Bellinger—who is hitting .444 in May—and the breakout Ben Rice, who carries a 1.093 OPS. New York leads the majors in home runs, and Young’s lack of swing-and-miss stuff makes him a target for a power-heavy lineup that has outscored Baltimore 39-10 in their last four meetings.
Finally, the depth disparity created by Baltimore’s injury report is impossible to ignore. With four rotation regulars and star closer Ryan Helsley recently sidelined, the Orioles are forced to rely on a "patched-together" staff to navigate high-leverage situations against Aaron Judge and the heart of the Yankees' order. New York enters this game having won nine straight head-to-head contests against Baltimore. Given the extreme platoon advantages and the fact that Baltimore’s top power hitters are essentially "automatic outs" against lefties right now, the Yankees are positioned to snap their 26-15 record's recent skid and continue their dominance over their division rival.
Injuries noted
Orioles: [NEW] Cade Povich (SP) — Elbow (Left): The Orioles placed Povich on the 15-day injured list Friday with left shoulder inflammation. (May 8 — 3d ago) [NEW] Zach Eflin (Starting Pitcher) — Elbow (Right): Eflin underwent Tommy John surgery on his right elbow Wednesday, Andy Kostka of TheBaltimoreBanner.com reports. (May 8 — 3d ago) [NEW] Luis Vazquez (Shortstop) — Thumb (Right): Orioles manager Craig Albernaz said Monday that Vazquez has been diagnosed with a broken right thumb, Andy Kostka of TheBaltimoreBanner.com reports. (May 8 — 3d ago) [NEW] Dean Kremer (Starting Pitcher) — Quadriceps (Right): Kremer (quadriceps) is expected to miss several weeks, Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com reports. (May 8 — 3d ago) [NEW] Yaramil Hiraldo (Relief Pitcher) — Shoulder (Right): The Orioles announced Monday that Hiraldo (shoulder) has resumed a throwing program, Jacob Calvin Meyer of The Baltimore Sun reports. (May 11 — 0d ago) [NEW] Ryan Helsley (RP) — Elbow (Right): The Orioles announced Monday that Helsley (elbow) hasn't been cleared to start a throwing program, Jacob Calvin Meyer of The Baltimore Sun reports. (May 11 — 0d ago) [NEW] Trevor Rogers (Starting Pitcher) — Illness (Not Specified): Rogers (illness) said that he threw a "simulated bullpen" session Saturday and is optimistic that he'll be able to return from the 15-day injured list to make a start during the Orioles' three-game series versus the Yankees that begins Monday, Jake Rill of MLB.com reports. (May 10 — 1d ago) [NEW] Heston Kjerstad (Left Fielder) — Hamstring (Right): Kjerstad (hamstring) will begin a rehab assignment at Double-A Chesapeake on Saturday, Jacob Calvin Meyer of The Baltimore Sun reports. (May 9 — 2d ago) Yankees: [NEW] Jose Caballero (SS) — Finger (Right): Caballero is absent from the lineup for Monday's contest in Baltimore. (May 11 — 0d ago) [NEW] Gerrit Cole (Starting Pitcher) — Elbow (Right): Cole (elbow) completed five innings in his rehab start with Double-A Somerset on Sunday, allowing two earned runs on four hits and one walk while striking out eight batters. (May 11 — 0d ago) [NEW] Giancarlo Stanton (Designated Hitter) — Calf (Right): Stanton (calf) has yet to resume running, but he's been doing some hitting, per MLB.com. (May 10 — 1d ago) [NEW] Jasson Dominguez (LF) — Shoulder (Left): Yankees manager Aaron Boone said Thursday that Dominguez will miss "a few weeks" after an MRI revealed a low-grade AC joint sprain in his left shoulder, Bryan Hoch of MLB.com reports. (May 8 — 3d ago) [NEW] Angel Chivilli (Relief Pitcher) — Shoulder (Right): Manager Aaron Boone said Tuesday that Chivilli (shoulder) will be shut down from throwing for roughly three weeks, Bryan Hoch of MLB.com reports. (May 8 — 3d ago)
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- Board stored May 11, 2026 at 4:46 PM ET.
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Props on this game
2Pete AlonsoUNDER 1.5 H+R+RBI H+R+RBI-117
WActual 0
The Orioles' offense faces a significant uphill battle tonight given their 0-9 record against left-handed starters this season. Pete Alonso has been at the center of these struggles, hitting just .214 on the season and currently mired in a 10-game power drought with zero home runs and just one RBI in that span. Ryan Weathers (LHP) has already neutralized this Baltimore lineup once this month, and the cool 59-degree weather combined with the cavernous dimensions of 'Walltimore' in left field will make it difficult for Alonso to break out of his slump with extra-base hits. Alonso has failed to record multiple bases in 9 of his last 10 games, and with the Orioles struggling to put runners on base ahead of him, his path to clearing 1.5 HRR is extremely narrow.
Ben RiceOVER 2.5 H+R+RBI H+R+RBI+112
WActual 5
Ben Rice has established himself as the Yankees' most consistent offensive threat over the last two weeks, clearing this high 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs line in 70% of his last 10 games. Batting second in a lineup that leads MLB in home runs, Rice is perfectly positioned to accumulate stats; he is frequently on base for Aaron Judge or driving in Trent Grisham. He faces Brandon Young, a right-hander who has shown a significant vulnerability to the long ball (15 HR in 78.1 IP). Given the Yankees' historic dominance of Baltimore this season—including a four-game sweep where they averaged nearly 10 runs per game—Rice should see 4-5 plate appearances with plenty of opportunities to drive in runs or score himself.
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