Mets at Diamondbacks
O/U 9.5 · RL Mets -1.5 · Chase Field
Mets ML-108
CONF 82%
WCashedFinal 3-1
The read
We’ve got a desert duel tonight at Chase Field, where the climate-controlled air should offer some relief for the pitchers, but it might not be enough to save a Diamondbacks rotation that is currently in a state of emergency. While the Mets (15-23) have been decimated by injuries to their core stars, they have found a strange road resilience, winning five of their last seven games by leaning on a pitching staff that is suddenly performing like one of the best in the National League.
The starting pitching mismatch tonight is the single biggest factor on the board. Clay Holmes has been a revelation for New York, providing the kind of length and stability that keeps a bullpen fresh. He has allowed two earned runs or fewer in five straight starts, and his heavy sinker is the perfect weapon for a Chase Field environment with the roof closed. On the other side, Merrill Kelly is in the midst of a statistical nightmare. He is currently carrying a 9.95 ERA and a WHIP over 2.00, and the advanced metrics suggest he’s been even worse than that, with an xERA of 11.75. Kelly is struggling to miss bats and has a glaring vulnerability against left-handed hitters, who are slugging a massive .875 against him this season.
This plays right into the Mets’ hands, as they have stacked their lineup with lefties like Juan Soto and MJ Melendez to exploit that exact weakness. Soto has a 1.021 OPS against right-handed pitching this year, and Melendez isn't far behind at .913. Even with the Diamondbacks (17-20) getting Ketel Marte back in the leadoff spot, it is hard to trust a team that has lost 12 of its last 16 games and is currently on a four-game home losing streak. The Mets have the momentum, the superior starter, and a perfect tactical matchup for their best hitters. Expect New York to capitalize on Kelly’s command issues early and secure another disciplined road victory.
Injuries noted
Diamondbacks: [NEW] Carlos Santana (First Baseman) — Thigh (Right): Santana (thigh) could rejoin the Diamondbacks on Friday, Steve Gilbert of MLB.com reports. (May 8 — 1d ago) [NEW] Jordan Lawlar (Shortstop) — Wrist (Right): Lawlar is doing as much baseball activity as possible without using his fractured right wrist, Alex Weiner of Arizona Sports reports. (May 8 — 1d ago) [NEW] Pavin Smith (Left Fielder) — Elbow (Left): Smith (elbow) will take dry swings next week, Alex Weiner of Arizona Sports reports. (May 8 — 1d ago) [NEW] Jeff Brigham (Relief Pitcher) — Undisclosed (Not Specified): Brigham was placed on the 7-day injured list at Triple-A St. Paul, retroactive to April 6, with a left oblique strain, TwinsDaily.com reports. (May 8 — 1d ago) [NEW] Rene Pinto (Catcher) — Undisclosed (Not Specified): Pinto (undisclosed) began a rehab assignment Monday, Kristie Ackert of the Tampa Bay Times reports. (May 8 — 1d ago) Mets: [NEW] Jared Young (First Baseman) — Knee (Left): The Mets placed Young on the 10-day injured list Wednesday, retroactive to Monday, due to a meniscus tear in his left knee. (May 8 — 1d ago) [NEW] Joey Gerber (Relief Pitcher) — Finger (Right): Gerber (finger) struck out two and allowed two hits over a scoreless inning during his rehab appearance Tuesday at Triple-A Syracuse. (May 8 — 1d ago) [NEW] Justin Hagenman (Relief Pitcher) — Ribs: The Mets placed Hagenman on the 60-day injured list Saturday due to a rib fracture. (May 8 — 1d ago) [NEW] Ronny Mauricio (SS) — Thumb (Left): The Mets placed Mauricio (thumb) on the 10-day injured list Sunday. (May 8 — 1d ago) [NEW] Luis Robert Jr. (Center Fielder) — Back (Not Specified): The Mets placed Robert on the 10-day injured list Thursday with a lumbar spine disc herniation. (May 8 — 1d ago) [NEW] Francisco Lindor (Shortstop) — Calf (Left): Lindor (calf) will wear a boot for the next week and remain shut down for at least three weeks, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports. (May 8 — 1d ago) [NEW] Kevin Herget (Relief Pitcher) — Undisclosed: Herget signed a minor league contract that includes an invitation to spring training with the Mets on Thursday, Will Sammon of The Athletic reports. (May 8 — 1d ago) [NEW] Jorge Polanco (Second Baseman) — Wrist (Right): Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns said last Friday that Polanco (wrist/Achilles) has resumed performing baseball activities but is considered week-to-week in his recovery from a pair of injuries, SNY.tv reports. (May 8 — 1d ago) [NEW] Kodai Senga (Starting Pitcher) — Back (Not Specified): Mets manager Carlos Mendoza told reporters that Senga (back) played catch Wednesday, and the right-hander is progressing in his recovery, Laura Albanese of Newsday reports. (May 8 — 1d ago)
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- Board stored May 9, 2026 at 1:36 PM ET.
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