Astros at Reds
O/U 8.5 · RL Reds -1.5 · Great American Ball Park
Reds ML-164
CONF 72%
WCashedFinal 1-3
The read
We have a beautiful afternoon for baseball in the Queen City as the Cincinnati Reds look to turn the tide against a Houston Astros squad that completely dominated them just twenty-four hours ago. This matchup presents a fascinating contrast on the mound between two starters with sub-2.50 ERAs, but the underlying data suggests these two paths are about to diverge in a big way.
Spencer Arrighetti enters this start with a sparkling 4-0 record and a 1.96 ERA, yet his metrics scream for a correction that could come today. His 5.75 xERA is one of the highest discrepancies in the league, and he has survived primarily on luck while struggling with command, evidenced by 14 walks in just 23 innings. In a hitter-friendly venue like Great American Ball Park with the wind blowing out at 9 mph toward left field, Arrighetti's tendency to put runners on and allow high-quality contact is a volatile combination. His four-seam fastball carries an alarming .583 xwOBA, meaning hitters are crushing the pitch regardless of the results seen in the box score. On the other side, rookie sensation Chase Burns is the real deal. His 2.20 ERA is supported by a 2.99 xERA and a slider that generates whiffs 48.8% of the time. Unlike Arrighetti, Burns misses bats at an elite rate (10.1 K/9), which is the most reliable way to suppress scoring in this stadium.
While the Reds (20-19) are mired in an eight-game losing streak, the situational advantages today are overwhelmingly in their favor. Their lineup is specifically built to exploit right-handed pitching; JJ Bleday and Nathaniel Lowe are both posting OPS marks over 1.000 against righties this season and are perfectly positioned to punish any control lapses. Furthermore, Houston’s bullpen is currently in a state of emergency. With Bennett Sousa hitting the IL today and Bryan Abreu struggling with a 9.49 ERA and a 2.35 WHIP, the Astros (16-23) lack the reliable relief depth to handle high-leverage innings if Arrighetti’s luck finally runs out. The Reds have the pitching mismatch they need to snap their slide, led by a starter in Burns who can "pitch over" the park factors that threaten his counterpart.
Injuries noted
Reds: [NEW] Eugenio Suarez (Third Baseman) — Oblique (Left): Suarez (oblique) took 50 swings Thursday, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports. (May 8 — 1d ago) [NEW] Rhett Lowder (SP) — Shoulder (Right): Lowder was given an injection in the AC joint of his right shoulder after an MRI on Friday came back negative, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports. (May 8 — 1d ago) [NEW] Caleb Ferguson (Relief Pitcher) — Oblique (Right): Ferguson (oblique) allowed one run on one hit and struck out two over one inning for Double-A Chattanooga on Friday. (May 8 — 1d ago) [NEW] Hunter Greene (Starting Pitcher) — Elbow (Right): Greene (elbow) is playing catch from 110 feet and is about three weeks away from progressing to bullpen sessions, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports. (May 8 — 1d ago) [NEW] Brandon Williamson (Starting Pitcher) — Shoulder (Left): The Reds transferred Williamson (shoulder) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Wednesday. (May 8 — 1d ago) [NEW] Emilio Pagan (RP) — Hamstring (Left): Pagan said Wednesday that he's been diagnosed with a Grade 2 left hamstring strain and is expected to be sidelined 4-to-8 weeks, Gordon Wittenmyer of The Cincinnati Enquirer reports. (May 8 — 1d ago) Astros: [NEW] Yainer Diaz (C) — Oblique (Left): The Astros placed Diaz (oblique) on the 10-day injured list Tuesday, Brian McTaggart of MLB.com reports. (May 8 — 1d ago) [NEW] Cristian Javier (Starting Pitcher) — Shoulder (Right): The Astros announced Monday that Javier (shoulder) will begin a throwing progression this week, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports. (May 8 — 1d ago) [NEW] Bennett Sousa (RP) — Elbow (Left): The Astros placed Sousa on the 15-day injured list Saturday with left elbow inflammation, retroactive to Wednesday, Julia Morales of Space City Home Network reports. (May 9 — 0d ago) [NEW] Hunter Brown (Starting Pitcher) — Shoulder (Right): The Astros transferred Brown (shoulder) to the 60-day injured list Saturday. (May 9 — 0d ago) [NEW] Jeremy Pena (Shortstop) — Hamstring (Right): Manager Joe Espada said Friday that Pena (hamstring) will "hopefully" run the bases this weekend, which would be the final step in his rehab program before starting a rehab assignment, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports. (May 8 — 0d ago) [NEW] Joey Loperfido (Left Fielder) — Quadriceps (Right): The Astros announced Monday that Loperfido (quadriceps) has started light running and light baseball activity, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports. (May 8 — 1d ago) [NEW] Tatsuya Imai (SP) — Arm (Right): Astros general manager Dana Brown said Tuesday that Imai (arm) will rejoin the rotation next week versus the Mariners, Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports. (May 8 — 1d ago) [NEW] Carlos Correa (SS) — Ankle (Left): The Astros placed Correa (ankle) on the 10-day injured list Wednesday. (May 8 — 1d ago) [NEW] Jake Meyers (Center Fielder) — Oblique (Right): The Astros announced Monday that Meyers (oblique) has started swinging a bat and reincorporating other baseball activities, Brian McTaggart of MLB.com reports. (May 8 — 1d ago) [NEW] Taylor Trammell (Left Fielder) — Groin (Left): The Astros announced Monday that Trammell (groin) has begun a running progression in addition to taking part in light baseball activity, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports. (May 8 — 1d ago) [NEW] Lance McCullers Jr. (SP) — Finger (Right): McCullers was removed from his start Wednesday against the Dodgers in the top of the third inning after he appeared to be contending with a blister on his pitching hand, Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports. He was charged with six earned runs on four hits and three walks over 2.2 innings prior to his departure. (May 8 — 1d ago)
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- Board stored May 9, 2026 at 1:36 PM ET.
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Props on this game
2Spencer ArrighettiOVER 2.5 Pitcher Earned Runs Pitcher Earned Runs-125
LActual 1
Spencer Arrighetti is the primary regression candidate in this matchup. While his surface ERA is an elite 1.96, his expected ERA (xERA) of 5.75 suggests he has been incredibly fortunate.
He is surrendering an xwOBA of .371 and has a high walk rate (5.48 BB/9), which is a dangerous combination in the hitter-friendly confines of Great American Ball Park. With the wind blowing out to left field today, his tendency to allow hard contact is likely to result in runs.
The Reds' offense, despite their current losing streak, features power threats like Elly De La Cruz and Sal Stewart who can capitalize on Arrighetti's poor underlying metrics. Arrighetti's fastball has an expected wOBA of .583, which is a major liability in a small park.
Chase BurnsOVER 6.5 Strikeouts Strikeouts-146
LActual 2
Chase Burns has been a dominant strikeout force in his rookie season, and this matchup favors him clearing the 6.5 line. While the Astros are generally a difficult team to strike out, their current lineup is severely compromised by injuries.
The absence of Jeremy Peña and Yainer Diaz removes two of their best bat-to-ball hitters, forcing Houston to rely on younger players like Zach Cole and Brice Matthews who have higher strikeout tendencies. Burns features a slider with a league-best 48.8% whiff rate, which he should be able to exploit against a depleted Houston middle-to-bottom order.
Burns has recorded 7 or more strikeouts in three of his last five starts and is averaging 8.0 K per game over his last three outings.
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