Astros at Reds
O/U 9 · RL Reds -1.5 · Great American Ball Park
Reds ML-130
CONF 68%
LLostFinal 10-0
The read
Nick Lodolo makes his long-awaited return to the Great American Ball Park mound tonight, and he couldn't have picked a more critical moment with Cincinnati desperate to snap a seven-game losing streak. While the Reds' offense has been sputtering with a league-worst .220 average, this matchup against Mike Burrows is a statistical gift for their primary power hitters. Burrows has been a Statcast mystery this season, carrying a 5.97 ERA despite an underlying xERA of 3.85, but his primary flaw—allowing frequent hard contact and fly balls—is a recipe for disaster in this venue. He has already surrendered eight home runs in less than 40 innings, and facing JJ Bleday (1.336 OPS vs. RHP) and Nathaniel Lowe (1.061 OPS vs. RHP) in the small confines of the Queen City is a nightmare scenario for a pitcher struggling to keep the ball in the yard.
The activation of Lodolo gives the Reds the front-line stabilizer they’ve lacked during this 20-18 season's recent slide. Lodolo was dominant in his Triple-A rehab assignment, posting a 1.50 ERA with 17 strikeouts over just 12 innings, suggesting his velocity and signature breaking stuff are fully intact. He faces an Astros lineup that has become a two-headed monster; while stars Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez, and Christian Walker are all hitting over .330 in their last 10 games, the rest of the Houston roster is essentially a skeleton crew. With Carlos Correa and Jeremy Peña both sidelined, the bottom half of the Houston order—featuring Nick Allen and Zach Dezenzo—simply doesn't have the depth to exploit the park factors as effectively as Cincinnati’s middle-of-the-order bats.
Finally, the bullpen disparity favors Cincinnati in the middle innings. Although the Reds lost closer Emilio Pagán to a fresh hamstring injury this week, they still have reliable high-leverage arms like Tony Santillan (2.87 ERA) and Graham Ashcraft (1.93 ERA) to protect a lead. Houston’s relief corps, conversely, has been a liability, headlined by Bryan Abreu’s astronomical 9.49 ERA and a team pitching staff carrying a league-high 1.63 WHIP. In a game that will likely be decided by who can limit the long ball and minimize free passes, Cincinnati has the clear advantage with a fresh ace on the mound and more explosive platoon matchups. Trust the "stopper" narrative tonight as the Reds finally find the win column.
Injuries noted
Reds: [NEW] Eugenio Suarez (Third Baseman) — Oblique (Left): Suarez (oblique) took 50 swings Thursday, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports. (May 8 — 0d ago) [NEW] Rhett Lowder (SP) — Shoulder (Right): Lowder was given an injection in the AC joint of his right shoulder after an MRI on Friday came back negative, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports. (May 8 — 0d ago) [NEW] Caleb Ferguson (Relief Pitcher) — Oblique (Right): Ferguson (oblique) allowed one run on one hit and struck out two over one inning for Double-A Chattanooga on Friday. (May 8 — 0d ago) [NEW] Hunter Greene (Starting Pitcher) — Elbow (Right): Greene (elbow) is playing catch from 110 feet and is about three weeks away from progressing to bullpen sessions, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports. (May 8 — 0d ago) [NEW] Brandon Williamson (Starting Pitcher) — Shoulder (Left): The Reds transferred Williamson (shoulder) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Wednesday. (May 8 — 0d ago) [NEW] Emilio Pagan (RP) — Hamstring (Left): Pagan said Wednesday that he's been diagnosed with a Grade 2 left hamstring strain and is expected to be sidelined 4-to-8 weeks, Gordon Wittenmyer of The Cincinnati Enquirer reports. (May 8 — 0d ago) Astros: [NEW] Joey Loperfido (Left Fielder) — Quadriceps (Right): The Astros announced Monday that Loperfido (quadriceps) has started light running and light baseball activity, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports. (May 8 — 0d ago) [NEW] Hunter Brown (Starting Pitcher) — Shoulder (Right): Brown (shoulder) could throw a bullpen session as soon as this weekend, Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports. (May 8 — 0d ago) [NEW] Tatsuya Imai (SP) — Arm (Right): Astros general manager Dana Brown said Tuesday that Imai (arm) will rejoin the rotation next week versus the Mariners, Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports. (May 8 — 0d ago) [NEW] Carlos Correa (SS) — Ankle (Left): The Astros placed Correa (ankle) on the 10-day injured list Wednesday. (May 8 — 0d ago) [NEW] Jake Meyers (Center Fielder) — Oblique (Right): The Astros announced Monday that Meyers (oblique) has started swinging a bat and reincorporating other baseball activities, Brian McTaggart of MLB.com reports. (May 8 — 0d ago) [NEW] Taylor Trammell (Left Fielder) — Groin (Left): The Astros announced Monday that Trammell (groin) has begun a running progression in addition to taking part in light baseball activity, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports. (May 8 — 0d ago) [NEW] Lance McCullers Jr. (SP) — Finger (Right): McCullers was removed from his start Wednesday against the Dodgers in the top of the third inning after he appeared to be contending with a blister on his pitching hand, Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports. He was charged with six earned runs on four hits and three walks over 2.2 innings prior to his departure. (May 8 — 0d ago) [NEW] Yainer Diaz (C) — Oblique (Left): The Astros placed Diaz (oblique) on the 10-day injured list Tuesday, Brian McTaggart of MLB.com reports. (May 8 — 0d ago) [NEW] Cristian Javier (Starting Pitcher) — Shoulder (Right): The Astros announced Monday that Javier (shoulder) will begin a throwing progression this week, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports. (May 8 — 0d ago) [NEW] Jeremy Pena (Shortstop) — Hamstring (Right): Pena (hamstring) could begin a rehab assignment this weekend, Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports. (May 8 — 0d ago)
Props on this game
2Sal StewartOVER 1.5 H+R+RBI H+R+RBI-136
LActual 1
Sal Stewart is currently the most productive hitter in the Reds lineup, maintaining a scorching .448 batting average over his last 10 games. He enters this matchup having cleared 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs in four of his last five contests, benefiting from his position as the cleanup hitter.
He faces Houston starter Mike Burrows, who has struggled significantly with contact management, posting a 5.97 ERA and allowing nearly 12 hits per nine innings. In the hitter-friendly environment of Great American Ball Park, Stewart is well-positioned to exploit a pitcher who frequently puts runners on base and allows a high volume of hard contact.
With Burrows possessing a 1.65 WHIP, Stewart should see multiple opportunities with runners in scoring position. Risk: Burrows' xERA of 3.85 suggests he has been significantly unlucky; if his performance regresses toward that expected mean, he could limit the Reds' scoring opportunities more effectively than his surface stats imply.
Christian WalkerOVER 1.5 Total Bases Total Bases+125
WActual 4
Christian Walker has been the primary offensive engine for the injury-depleted Astros, hitting .350 with a .650 slugging percentage over his last 10 games. Tonight he faces Nick Lodolo, who is making his first major league start of the 2026 season after being sidelined by a blister.
Lodolo only averaged 4.0 innings per start during his rehab assignment, suggesting Walker will either face a rusty starter or a heavily taxed Reds bullpen that has struggled during a seven-game losing streak. Walker's power profile is perfectly suited for Great American Ball Park, which is one of the most favorable venues in baseball for right-handed power.
With 14 hits in his last 40 at-bats, Walker is seeing the ball well enough to clear this line with either a single multi-base hit or a multi-hit performance. Risk: Lodolo was highly efficient in his 2025 campaign (3.33 ERA) and Walker has historically lower batting averages against left-handed pitching (.226) despite maintaining high power numbers.
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