Reds at Cubs
O/U 9 · RL Cubs -1.5 · Wrigley Field
Cubs -1.5 104+104
CONF 85%
WCashedFinal 3-8
The read
We’ve got a beautiful afternoon for baseball at Wrigley Field as the Chicago Cubs look to etch their names into the record books with a franchise-tying home winning streak against a reeling Cincinnati Reds squad. The pitching matchup today is the definition of a mismatch, featuring Shota Imanaga and his elite 0.85 WHIP against Rhett Lowder, who is essentially in a state of crisis after being tagged for eight runs in just over an inning his last time out. Lowder has been particularly vulnerable in afternoon starts, posting a dismal 8.64 ERA in day games, and he now has to navigate a Cubs lineup that leads the league in patience with a .352 team OBP.
The environmental factors at Wrigley are the final nail in the coffin for Cincinnati today. With an 11 mph wind blowing straight out to right field, Chicago has strategically stacked their lineup with five left-handed or switch-hitters to exploit the jet stream. Power hitters like Michael Busch and Ian Happ—who boasts a massive .995 OPS against righties—are perfectly positioned to turn routine fly balls into bleacher seats against a pitcher struggling with command. While the Reds have a few left-handed specialists in Elly De La Cruz and Sal Stewart, the rest of their order historically disappears against southpaws, hitting just .200 as a unit against left-handed pitching.
Psychologically, these two teams are in different universes right now. The Reds (20-17) have endured the trauma of three consecutive walk-off losses this week, and their bullpen is statistically the worst in the majors over the last 14 days with a 7.47 ERA. The fresh loss of closer Emilio Pagán to a hamstring strain has left them without an anchor in high-leverage spots, and it showed in the late-inning collapses that defined the first three games of this series. With the Cubs (25-12) riding an eight-game winning streak and chasing a modern-era record 15th straight home victory, expect them to capitalize on a demoralized Reds team and secure a multi-run win to complete the sweep.
Injuries noted
Cubs: [NEW] Julian Merryweather (Relief Pitcher) — Hamstring (Left): Merryweather (hamstring) will begin a rehab assignment with the Twins' rookie-level Florida Complex League affiliate Tuesday, Theodore Tollefson of ZoneCoverage.com reports. (May 5 — 2d ago) [NEW] Matthew Boyd (SP) — Knee (Left): Boyd underwent a successful menisectomy Thursday, Taylor McGregor of Marquee Sports Network reports. (May 7 — 0d ago) [KNOWN] Riley Martin (RP) — Elbow (Left): Martin has been diagnosed with flexor strain in his left elbow and is expected to miss eight weeks, Taylor McGregor of Marquee Sports Network reports. (Apr 27 — 9d ago) [KNOWN] Caleb Thielbar (Relief Pitcher) — Hamstring (Left): The Cubs placed Thielbar on the 15-day injured list Friday with a left hamstring strain. (Apr 24 — 12d ago) [KNOWN] Porter Hodge (Relief Pitcher) — Elbow (Right): The Cubs transferred Hodge (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Friday, Taylor McGregor of Marquee Sports Network reports. (Apr 24 — 12d ago) [KNOWN] Hunter Harvey (Relief Pitcher) — Triceps (Right): Harvey (triceps) will restart his throwing program Friday, Patrick Mooney of The Athletic reports. (Apr 21 — 15d ago) [KNOWN] Cade Horton (Starting Pitcher) — Elbow (Right): Horton (elbow) underwent Tommy John surgery Thursday and is expected to be sidelined up to 16 months, Taylor McGregor of Marquee Sports Network reports. (Apr 18 — 19d ago) [KNOWN] Ethan Roberts (Relief Pitcher) — Finger (Right): The Cubs placed Roberts on the 15-day injured list Tuesday with an undisclosed injury. (Apr 14 — 22d ago) Reds: [NEW] Emilio Pagan (RP) — Hamstring (Left): Pagan said Wednesday that he's been diagnosed with a Grade 2 left hamstring strain and is expected to be sidelined 4-to-8 weeks, Gordon Wittenmyer of The Cincinnati Enquirer reports. (May 6 — 0d ago) [NEW] Brandon Williamson (Starting Pitcher) — Shoulder (Left): The Reds transferred Williamson (shoulder) to the 60-day injured list Wednesday. (May 6 — 0d ago) [NEW] Nick Lodolo (Starting Pitcher) — Finger (Left): Lodolo (finger) expects to face no workload limitations when he's activated from the 15-day injured list to start Friday's game against the Astros in Cincinnati, Mark Sheldon of MLB.com reports. (May 5 — 2d ago) [NEW] Eugenio Suarez (Third Baseman) — Oblique (Left): Suarez (oblique) will take grounders on the field and flips in the batting cage Monday, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports. (May 4 — 2d ago) [KNOWN] Caleb Ferguson (Relief Pitcher) — Oblique (Right): Ferguson (oblique) allowed one run on one hit and struck out two over one inning for Double-A Chattanooga on Friday. (May 3 — 4d ago) [KNOWN] Hunter Greene (Starting Pitcher) — Elbow (Right): Greene (elbow) is playing catch from 110 feet and is about three weeks away from progressing to bullpen sessions, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports. (Apr 28 — 8d ago)
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- Board stored May 7, 2026 at 11:13 AM ET.
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Props on this game
2Ian HappOVER 1.5 H+R+RBI H+R+RBI-115
LActual 1
Ian Happ is in the midst of an elite power surge, having launched five home runs and driven in seven runs over his last five games. He faces Rhett Lowder, a rookie right-hander who was chased after just 1.1 innings in his last start while surrendering eight runs. The matchup favorability is amplified by the weather conditions at Wrigley Field, where an 11 mph wind is blowing out toward right field, perfectly aiding Happ's power as a switch-hitter. As the cleanup hitter for a Cubs team averaging 5.4 runs per game and riding an eight-game win streak, Happ will have high-leverage opportunities to clear this 1.5 HRR line through either his own power or driving in the high-OBP table-setters in front of him.
Sal StewartOVER 1.5 Total Bases Total Bases+120
WActual 4
Sal Stewart is currently the hottest hitter in the Reds' lineup, providing a rare bright spot during their six-game losing streak. Over his last 10 games, he is batting .448 with 13 hits, including multiple hits in four of those contests.
While Shota Imanaga is a formidable opponent, Stewart has thrived in lefty-on-righty matchups this season, posting a 1.055 OPS against left-handed pitching. Given his 112 mph exit velocity and high contact rate recently, Stewart is the most likely candidate to find gaps at Wrigley.
This prop is backed by his individual consistency (80% hit rate in L10) rather than team production, which is crucial given Cincinnati's overall offensive slump.
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