Pirates at Diamondbacks
O/U 7.5 · RL Pirates -1.5 · Chase Field
The pick & result
- Published pick
- Pirates ML -132
- Published odds
- -132
- Result
- Lost
- Final score
- 0-9
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
The read
The lights are bright at Chase Field as the Pirates send their generational ace to the mound to stem the tide of a series that started with a desert blowout. Yesterday’s 9-0 loss was an ugly one for the Pirates (19-17), but in baseball, you’re only as good as the next day’s starting pitcher. When that starter is Paul Skenes, you have to like your chances. Skenes is the reigning Cy Young winner for a reason, and his 2026 metrics are even more dominant than his rookie run. He is sitting on a 0.85 WHIP and has recorded zero walks over his last 16 innings of work. When you factor in his 1.00 career ERA against Arizona, it’s clear he has the edge in this building.
On the other side of the rubber, Michael Soroka is heading in the opposite direction for the Diamondbacks (17-17). He is coming off a catastrophic outing against the Brewers where he was tagged for eight earned runs in just three innings. That kind of meltdown creates a massive ripple effect, and now he has to face a Pirates lineup featuring heavy left-handed power like Brandon Lowe and Oneil Cruz. Soroka has shown extreme vulnerability to lefties this season, and with Lowe sporting a 184 wRC+ against right-handers, the Pirates have the perfect weapons to jump on Soroka early.
I know the Diamondbacks' bullpen is fresh and Pittsburgh’s is a bit taxed, but Skenes is the ultimate stopper. He has the efficiency and the strikeout stuff to go deep into the game, which largely negates any middle-relief concerns for the Pirates. With manager Don Kelly returning to the dugout tonight, I expect a focused Pittsburgh team to play behind their ace. Yesterday was an outlier; tonight is about the best pitcher in the National League taking care of business. I'm riding with Skenes and the Pirates to even the series.
Injuries noted
Diamondbacks: [NEW] Carlos Santana (First Baseman) — Thigh (Right): Santana (thigh) is continuing to rehab at Triple-A Reno and will be evaluated by the end of the week, Alex Weiner of Arizona Sports reports. (May 6 — 0d ago) [NEW] Pavin Smith (Left Fielder) — Elbow (Left): Smith (elbow) will take dry swings next week, Alex Weiner of Arizona Sports reports. (May 6 — 0d ago) [NEW] Jordan Lawlar (Shortstop) — Wrist (Right): Lawlar is doing as much baseball activity as possible without using his fractured right wrist, Alex Weiner of Arizona Sports reports. (May 6 — 0d ago) [KNOWN] Andrew Saalfrank (Relief Pitcher) — Shoulder (Left): Saalfrank (shoulder) said Wednesday that he expects to be sidelined 10-16 months, Arizona Sports reports. (Feb 11 — 84d ago) [KNOWN] Rene Pinto (Catcher) — Undisclosed (Not Specified): The Phillies signed Pinto to a minor-league contract Jan. 6. (May 1 — 5d ago) [KNOWN] Jeff Brigham (Relief Pitcher) — Undisclosed (Not Specified): The Cubs signed Brigham to a minor-league contract Thursday that includes an invitation to spring training, Bruce Levine of 670TheScore.com reports. (Mar 30 — 36d ago) Pirates: [KNOWN] Will Robertson (Left Fielder) — Undisclosed (Not Specified): The Orioles reassigned Robertson to minor-league camp Wednesday, Jacob Calvin Meyer of The Baltimore Sun reports. (Apr 28 — 8d ago)
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Daily picks first stored May 6, 2026 at 1:13 PM ET.
- Odds record
- The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, draftkings, fanatics, caesars, betrivers, betmgm.
- Accountability
- Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.
Props on this game
2- GARY'S PICKONEIL CRUZTOTAL BASES OVER 0.5
Oneil Cruz is the engine of the Pirates' offense right now, entering this game on a tear with a .366 average over his last 10 games. While his season-long numbers against right-handers are modest (.230), his recent form is elite, characterized by 15 hits and 3 home runs in his last 41 at-bats.
He faces Michael Soroka, who is struggling mightily with a 4.70 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP. Soroka’s inability to miss bats lately—highlighted by an 8-run meltdown in his last outing—plays perfectly into Cruz's hands as a high-volume leadoff hitter.
At a 0.5 total base line, any single, double, or home run clears the prop, and Cruz has reached that mark in 90% of his last 10 contests.
- GARY'S PICKNICK GONZALESHITS OVER 0.5
Nick Gonzales offers a massive statistical advantage in this specific matchup due to his platoon splits. While his overall recent average is .229, he has been a specialist against right-handed pitching all season, boasting a .345 average in those matchups. He faces the right-handed Michael Soroka, who has surrendered four or more earned runs in half of his last four starts and is currently struggling to find the strike zone effectively. Gonzales' consistency in finding holes—with hits in 7 of his last 10 games—combined with a middle-of-the-order lineup spot (5th) ensures he will see multiple opportunities against a vulnerable starter and a Diamondbacks bullpen that has been taxed recently.
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