Orioles at Yankees
O/U 8.5 · RL Yankees -1.5 · Yankee Stadium
Yankees -1.5-102
CONF 85%
WCashedFinal 1-12
The read
The stage is set for a getaway-day finale at Yankee Stadium as the Bronx Bombers look to put the finishing touches on a dominant four-game sweep of their division rivals. While the price is steep, the statistical gulf between these two starters makes it nearly impossible to look anywhere but the home dugout.
The primary edge tonight is the mismatch between rookie sensation Cam Schlittler and a reeling Baltimore lineup. Schlittler has been nothing short of elite, carrying a 1.51 ERA and a 0.74 WHIP that ranks among the league's best through seven starts. His 98th-percentile chase rate is a catastrophic matchup for an Orioles offense that currently whiffs at the fifth-highest rate in MLB. While Baltimore's bats have the raw power of Gunnar Henderson and Pete Alonso, they haven't been able to solve New York’s staff all series, averaging just three runs per game. Schlittler’s ability to consistently give the Yankees six or more innings—evidenced by his last five starts where he allowed just one earned run over 20 innings—takes the pressure off a bullpen that already leads the league with a 3.01 ERA.
Conversely, Shane Baz has struggled to find his footing, posting a 1.50 WHIP and a 4.50 ERA that looks even more dangerous in a hitter-friendly environment like Yankee Stadium. With 13 mph winds blowing out to left field tonight, Baz’s vulnerability to the long ball is a major red flag against Aaron Judge and Jazz Chisholm Jr., both of whom have historically hammered him. Chisholm holds a career 2.000 OPS against Baz, and Judge has two homers in just ten career at-bats against him. Even with the fresh loss of breakout rookie Ben Rice to a hand injury, the Yankees' core of Judge, Chisholm, and Cody Bellinger is hitting with too much authority right now. When you factor in an Orioles bullpen that is missing its closer and is taxed from three straight lopsided losses, the Yankees are the clear side to complete the sweep.
Injuries noted
Yankees: [NEW] Ben Rice (1B) — Hand (Left): Rice (hand) is out of the lineup for Monday's game against the Orioles. (May 4 — 0d ago) [NEW] Gerrit Cole (Starting Pitcher) — Elbow (Right): Cole (elbow) will make another minor-league rehab appearance with High-A Hudson Valley on Tuesday, per MLB.com. (May 3 — 1d ago) [NEW] Giancarlo Stanton (Designated Hitter) — Calf (Right): Stanton (calf) has not been cleared to resume running, Gary Phillips of the New York Daily News reports. (May 1 — 3d ago) [KNOWN] Angel Chivilli (Relief Pitcher) — Shoulder (Right): Manager Aaron Boone said Tuesday that Chivilli (shoulder) will be shut down from throwing for roughly three weeks, Bryan Hoch of MLB.com reports. (Apr 28 — 5d ago) Orioles: [KNOWN] Dean Kremer (Starting Pitcher) — Quadriceps (Right): Kremer (quadriceps) is expected to miss several weeks, Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com reports. (Apr 25 — 9d ago) [KNOWN] Yaramil Hiraldo (Relief Pitcher) — Shoulder (Right): Hiraldo is scheduled to meet with Dr. Neal ElAttrache on Monday to receive a second opinion on his inflamed right shoulder, Andy Kostka of TheBanner.com reports. (Apr 20 — 13d ago) [KNOWN] Heston Kjerstad (Left Fielder) — Hamstring (Right): Kjerstad (hamstring) is running and participating in baseball activities, per MLB.com. (Apr 14 — 19d ago) [KNOWN] Ryan Mountcastle (First Baseman) — Foot (Left): The Orioles placed Mountcastle (foot) on the 60-day injured list Monday. (Apr 13 — 21d ago) [KNOWN] Zach Eflin (Starting Pitcher) — Elbow (Right): Eflin underwent Tommy John surgery on his right elbow Wednesday, Andy Kostka of TheBaltimoreBanner.com reports. (Apr 8 — 25d ago) [KNOWN] Luis Vazquez (Shortstop) — Thumb (Right): Orioles manager Craig Albernaz said Monday that Vazquez has been diagnosed with a broken right thumb, Andy Kostka of TheBaltimoreBanner.com reports. (Mar 29 — 36d ago) [KNOWN] Colin Selby (Relief Pitcher) — Shoulder (Right): The Orioles placed Selby on the 60-day injured list Saturday with right shoulder inflammation, Rich Dubroff of BaltimoreBaseball.com reports. (Feb 14 — 78d ago) [NEW] Ryan Helsley (RP) — Elbow (Right): Imaging on Helsley's right elbow came back negative Friday, Jacob Calvin Meyer of The Baltimore Sun reports. (May 1 — 2d ago) [KNOWN] Trevor Rogers (Starting Pitcher) — Illness (Not Specified): Orioles manager Craig Albernaz said Friday that he expects Rogers (illness) to return from the 15-day injured list when first eligible, Matt Weyrich of The Baltimore Sun reports. (Apr 30 — 4d ago)
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