Braves at Mariners
O/U 7.5 · RL Mariners -1.5 · T-Mobile Park
Braves ML+116
CONF 68%
LLostFinal 4-5
The read
The Pacific Northwest breeze sets the stage at T-Mobile Park as a local kid returns home to face a Mariners squad desperate to find its footing. Rookie JR Ritchie takes the mound for Atlanta in what is essentially a storybook homecoming, but this game will be decided by the heavy artillery the Braves bring to the coast.
At +116, the value on the Braves is impossible to ignore. We are talking about the best team in baseball (25-10) with a dominant road record being priced as an underdog against a Mariners team sitting below .500 (16-19). The market is leaning heavily on Logan Gilbert’s veteran status and the fact that Atlanta’s bullpen was pushed hard yesterday, but that ignores the absolute state of these two offenses. Seattle is hitting just .229 as a team and just lost their primary power source, Cal Raleigh, to a fresh side injury today. Losing a middle-of-the-order anchor is a massive blow to a lineup that has already struggled to plate runs recently.
Logan Gilbert has the name recognition, but his recent form is shaky. He’s carrying a 1.60 WHIP over his last three starts, giving up 19 hits in just 14.1 innings. You cannot give that much traffic to an Atlanta lineup that is currently averaging over nine runs per game. Even without Ronald Acuña Jr., the Braves are deep. Ozzie Albies is hitting .473 over his last 10 games, and Matt Olson is sitting on 299 career home runs. This lineup is relentless, and they’ve shown they can weather injuries better than anyone else in the league.
The Braves also get a massive emotional and tactical boost with Sean Murphy making his season debut tonight. Having a Gold Glove-caliber catcher to guide a rookie like Ritchie in a high-pressure homecoming start is a game-changer. Ritchie has looked sharp with a 2.92 ERA, and while the Atlanta bullpen is admittedly tired, the offense is firing on all cylinders after a sweep in Denver. I'm taking the better roster at a plus-money price.
Injuries noted
Mariners: [NEW] Victor Robles (Center Fielder) — Pectoral (Right): Robles (pectoral) will begin a rehab assignment at Triple-A Tacoma on Sunday, Adam Jude of The Seattle Times reports. (May 1 — 3d ago) [KNOWN] Miles Mastrobuoni (Shortstop) — Calf (Right): Seattle transferred Mastrobuoni (calf) from the 10-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Monday. (Apr 20 — 14d ago) [KNOWN] Patrick Wisdom (First Baseman) — Oblique (Left): The Mariners placed Wisdom on the 10-day injured list Friday due to a left oblique strain, retroactive to Wednesday. (Apr 17 — 17d ago) [KNOWN] Logan Evans (Starting Pitcher) — Elbow (Right): Evans underwent UCL reconstruction surgery with an internal brace Jan. 23 on his right elbow. (Feb 16 — 77d ago) [KNOWN] Joe Jacques (Relief Pitcher) — Undisclosed (Not Specified): The Mets signed Jacques to a minor-league contract Wednesday, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports. (Apr 30 — 4d ago) [NEW] Gabe Speier (RP) — Shoulder (Left): Speier picked up his first save of the season Friday against the Angels, allowing one unearned run with no hits or walks while striking out one across one inning. (May 4 — 0d ago) [NEW] Cal Raleigh (C) — Side (Right): Raleigh (side) is out of the lineup for Monday's game against Atlanta. (May 4 — 0d ago) [NEW] Brendan Donovan (Left Fielder) — Groin (Left): Donovan (groin) will begin a rehab assignment with Double-A Arkansas on Tuesday, Daniel Kramer of MLB.com reports. (May 4 — 0d ago) [NEW] Will Wilson (3B) — Thumb (Left): The Mariners selected Wilson's contract from Triple-A Tacoma on Monday. (May 2 — 1d ago) [NEW] Matt Brash (RP) — Lat (Right): Mariners manager Justin Hollander told reporters Friday that an MRI on Brash revealed "trace inflammation" in his right lat and no signs of structural damage, Daniel Kramer of MLB.com reports. (May 1 — 3d ago) [NEW] Carlos Vargas (Relief Pitcher) — Lat (Right): Vargas (lat) has suffered a setback in his recovery, Ryan Divish of The Seattle Times reports. (May 1 — 3d ago) [NEW] Bryce Miller (Starting Pitcher) — Oblique (Left): Miller (oblique) is scheduled to make his next rehab start with High-A Everett on Wednesday, Daniel Kramer of MLB.com reports. (May 1 — 3d ago) Braves: [NEW] Michael Harris II (CF) — Quadriceps (Left): Harris is out of the lineup for Sunday's game against the Rockies. (May 4 — 0d ago) [NEW] Raisel Iglesias (Relief Pitcher) — Shoulder (Right): Iglesias (shoulder) is expected to be activated from the 15-day injured list Tuesday, Chad Bishop of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports. (May 3 — 1d ago) [NEW] Dylan Dodd (Starting Pitcher) — Back (Left): Dodd (back) is expected to begin a minor-league rehab assignment with Triple-A Gwinnett in the coming days, Lindsay Crosby of BravesToday.com reports. (May 3 — 1d ago) [NEW] Ronald Acuna Jr. (RF) — Hamstring (Left): Manager Walt Weiss said Sunday that Acuna has been diagnosed with a Grade 1 strain of his left hamstring, Chad Bishop of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports. (May 3 — 1d ago) [KNOWN] Joey Wentz (Relief Pitcher) — Knee (Right): Atlanta placed Wentz on the 60-day injured list Tuesday with a right ACL tear. (Mar 24 — 41d ago)
Props on this game
2Matt OlsonOVER 1.5 Total Bases Total Bases-110
WActual 4
Matt Olson is in peak form, hitting .324 with 4 home runs over his last 10 games. He sits one home run shy of the 300-career milestone, a situation that typically leads to increased aggression in hitters' counts.
He faces Logan Gilbert, who has struggled with the long ball recently, surrendering a home run in three of his last four starts. Olson’s left-handed power profile matches up well against Gilbert’s tendency to leave pitches in the upper half of the zone.
With 26 extra-base hits this season, Olson has multiple paths to clearing 1.5 total bases beyond just the milestone home run, making this the strongest play on the board.
Julio RodriguezOVER 1.5 H+R+RBI H+R+RBI-115
LActual 1
Julio Rodriguez has been the most consistent engine for the Mariners, maintaining a .300 average over his last 10 games and recording a hit in 8 of those 10 contests. Tonight he faces Braves rookie JR Ritchie, who is making a high-pressure homecoming start in Seattle.
Ritchie has struggled significantly with his command early in his career, posting a 5.51 BB/9 rate (10 walks in 16.1 innings). Rodriguez, batting second in the lineup, is perfectly positioned to capitalize on the high-traffic innings Ritchie tends to create.
Whether via driving in runners or scoring himself after reaching base, the Hits+Runs+RBIs market provides the widest coverage to capitalize on this experience mismatch.
Every pick posts before the game and is graded after, in public. In the app you can ride or fade any of them, and your book keeps score against Gary's.
Download on the App Store