Mets at Angels
O/U 7.5 · RL Mets -1.5 · Angel Stadium
Mets ML-126
CONF 78%
WCashedFinal 4-3
The read
The stage is set under the lights in Anaheim as the New York Mets look to push the Los Angeles Angels even further into their mid-spring tailspin. After a demoralizing comeback loss yesterday where they failed to record a baserunner over the final seven innings, the Angels are gasping for air against a Mets squad that seems to have found a sudden spark of life.
The deciding factor in this matchup is the starting pitching mismatch. Nolan McLean is arguably the most exciting rookie arm in the league right now, carrying a massive 11.46 K/9 rate and a WHIP of just 0.85 into tonight. His ability to miss bats is exactly what you don't want to face when you're on a seven-game losing streak. McLean has been a different beast on the road, where his ERA sits at a microscopic 1.46. While Reid Detmers has improved his command for the Angels, his 4.28 ERA and lack of consistency make him a much riskier bet, especially against a Mets lineup that is stacked with right-handed hitters like Bo Bichette and Marcus Semien who are designed to punish southpaws.
While much will be made of Juan Soto’s struggles against lefties, the reality is that the Angels' bullpen is in shambles. Yesterday’s collapse was a microcosm of their recent form, and with a relief corps that surrendered four unanswered runs in the series opener, they can't afford a short outing from Detmers. The Mets' bullpen, by contrast, is coming off a perfect four-inning stint and looks revitalized after the front office gave a public vote of confidence to the coaching staff. The Angels (12-21) are in a total free-fall, and until they prove they can manufacture a single run in the late innings, I'm riding the hot hand and the superior starter to lead the Mets (11-21) to victory.
Injuries noted
Angels: [NEW] Ryan Johnson (Starting Pitcher) — Hamstring (Not Specified): Johnson (hamstring/illness) will begin a rehab assignment at Single-A Rancho Cucamonga on Sunday, Rhett Bollinger of MLB.com reports. (May 2 — 0d ago) [NEW] Walbert Urena (SP) — Leg (Right): Urena (0-3) took the loss Saturday against the Royals after allowing four runs on six hits and five walks across 3.2 innings. He struck out three. (May 1 — 0d ago) [NEW] Alek Manoah (Starting Pitcher) — Finger (Right): Manoah (finger) will begin a rehab assignment at Single-A Rancho Cucamonga on Saturday, Jeff Fletcher of The Orange County Register reports. (May 1 — 1d ago) [NEW] Yusei Kikuchi (SP) — Shoulder (Left): Kikuchi was lifted from his start Wednesday against the White Sox prior to the bottom of the third inning due to left shoulder tightness. He struck out a batter and allowed two hits and one walk over two scoreless frames before departing. (Apr 29 — 3d ago) [KNOWN] Logan O'Hoppe (Catcher) — Wrist (Left): O'Hoppe said Monday that the fracture in his left wrist is small and he believes he will return from the injured list in a "couple of weeks," Rhett Bollinger of MLB.com reports. (Apr 27 — 5d ago) [KNOWN] Kirby Yates (Relief Pitcher) — Knee (Left): Yates (knee) has made three minor-league rehab outings since April 17, giving up a combined seven runs on seven hits while posting a 5:1 K:BB over three innings. (Apr 27 — 5d ago) [KNOWN] Grayson Rodriguez (Starting Pitcher) — Shoulder (Right): Rodriguez (shoulder) threw to live hitters in Arizona on Friday, and the Angels are evaluating how he came out of that session before determining the next step in his throwing program, Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register reports. (Apr 27 — 5d ago) [KNOWN] Hans Crouse (Relief Pitcher) — Undisclosed (Not Specified): no (Apr 28 — 4d ago) Mets: [KNOWN] Kodai Senga (Starting Pitcher) — Back (Not Specified): The Mets placed Senga on the 15-day injured list Tuesday due to lumbar spine inflammation. (Apr 28 — 4d ago) [KNOWN] Francisco Lindor (Shortstop) — Calf (Left): Lindor (calf) will wear a boot for the next week and remain shut down for at least three weeks, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports. (Apr 24 — 8d ago) [KNOWN] Kevin Herget (Relief Pitcher) — Undisclosed: Herget signed a minor league contract that includes an invitation to spring training with the Mets on Thursday, Will Sammon of The Athletic reports. (Apr 18 — 14d ago) [KNOWN] Jared Young (First Baseman) — Knee (Left): The Mets placed Young on the 10-day injured list Wednesday, retroactive to Monday, due to a meniscus tear in his left knee. (Apr 15 — 17d ago) [KNOWN] Justin Hagenman (Relief Pitcher) — Ribs: The Mets placed Hagenman on the 60-day injured list Saturday due to a rib fracture. (Mar 14 — 49d ago) [KNOWN] Dedniel Nunez (Relief Pitcher) — Elbow (Right): The Mets transferred Nunez (elbow) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Monday. (Feb 15 — 76d ago) [KNOWN] Tylor Megill (Starting Pitcher) — Elbow (Right): The Mets and Megill (elbow) avoided arbitration by agreeing to a one-year, $2.5 million contract Thursday, Ari Alexander of 7 News Boston reports. (Feb 12 — 79d ago) [KNOWN] Reed Garrett (Relief Pitcher) — Elbow (Right): The Mets placed Garrett (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Tuesday. (Feb 10 — 81d ago) [NEW] Joey Gerber (Relief Pitcher) — Finger (Right): Gerber (finger) struck out two and allowed two hits over a scoreless inning during his rehab appearance Tuesday at Triple-A Syracuse. (Apr 30 — 2d ago) [NEW] Jorge Polanco (Second Baseman) — Wrist (Right): Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns said last Friday that Polanco (wrist/Achilles) has resumed performing baseball activities but is considered week-to-week in his recovery from a pair of injuries, SNY.tv reports. (Apr 30 — 2d ago) [NEW] Luis Robert Jr. (Center Fielder) — Back (Not Specified): The Mets are expected to place Robert (back) on the 10-day injured list, Chelsea Janes of SNY.tv reports. (Apr 30 — 2d ago)
Props on this game
2Jo AdellOVER 0.5 Hits Hits-180
Not yet graded
Jo Adell has been one of the few consistent contact sources for the Angels during their recent slide, recording at least one hit in 7 of his last 10 games. While he faces a dominant rookie in Nolan McLean, Adell's positioning in the middle of the order (5th) ensures he will see multiple plate appearances, likely 4 to 5 given the Angels' status as the home team. Adell has maintained a .257 average over his last 10 games, and while his strikeout rate is high (13 K in L10), he has successfully navigated high-K matchups recently by prioritizing contact, as seen in his two multi-hit performances over the last week. In a game where the Angels are desperate to snap a seven-game losing streak, Adell’s role as a primary run producer makes him a high-volume target for a single hit.
Nolan SchanuelOVER 0.5 Runs Scored Runs Scored+360
LActual 0
Nolan Schanuel provides exceptional value at +360 to score a run tonight due to his elite lineup positioning. Batting third puts him directly in front of the Angels' most dangerous hitters, Mike Trout and Jorge Soler, who combined for 12 home runs over the season's first month.
Schanuel also holds the platoon advantage as a left-handed hitter against the right-handed Nolan McLean. While McLean has been elite with a 0.85 WHIP, Schanuel’s primary skill set is his ability to work counts and reach base via walk or contact.
If Schanuel reaches base even once, he is in the optimal position to be driven in by the heart of the order. At these odds, the market is discounting the high-leverage nature of the #3 spot in a home lineup.
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