Astros at Red Sox
O/U 9 · RL Red Sox -1.5 · Fenway Park
Astros ML+102
CONF 65%
LLostFinal 1-3
The read
Friday night at Fenway Park features two clubs desperately trying to claw out of the basement, but the underlying numbers suggest the oddsmakers might be overlooking the veteran talent in Houston’s dugout tonight. While both teams are treading water in the standings, the individual matchups on the mound and at the plate point to a specific edge for the visiting side.
Mike Burrows is the key to this game, and I am betting on the regression. While his 6.25 ERA looks like a disaster on paper, his 3.85 xERA tells the real story of a pitcher suffering from poor luck and a defensive unit that hasn't done him any favors. He has actually increased his punchouts lately, racking up 15 strikeouts over his last two starts against elite competition. He is facing a Red Sox lineup that has completely cratered over the last 48 hours, managing just one lonely run in their last two games. In a hitter-friendly park like Fenway, I trust the pitcher whose peripherals suggest he is actually a mid-rotation arm over a rookie making his major league debut.
Speaking of that debut, Jake Bennett has been spectacular in the minors, but he is walking into a buzzsaw tonight. The Astros’ offense is averaging over five runs a game, led by Yordan Alvarez, who is currently the most dangerous hitter in the American League. Alvarez is a southpaw's worst nightmare, carrying a massive 1.392 OPS against left-handed pitching this year. Sending a rookie lefty out to face Yordan at Fenway with the wind blowing out toward the short porch in right is a recipe for an early exit. Alvarez doesn't just hit rookies; he possesses the power to ruin a debut before the first inning is over.
I recognize the concern regarding the Houston bullpen being taxed after yesterday's doubleheader, especially with Josh Hader dealing with biceps tendinitis. However, you have to look at who is actually swinging the bats for the home team. Boston is hitting just .211 at Fenway this season. Even if the Astros have to dip into the middle of their relief corps, the Red Sox haven't shown they can exploit a tired staff right now. Houston already swept this team once this season, and with Burrows due for a bounce-back and the league's best hitter waiting for a rookie lefty, the value is clearly on the plus money.
Injuries noted
Red Sox: [NEW] Garrett Crochet (Starting Pitcher) — Shoulder (Left): Crochet underwent an MRI on his left shoulder that came back clean Friday, and he'll be shut down from throwing for a few days while he focuses on rebuilding strength, Mac Cerullo of the Boston Herald reports. (May 1 — 0d ago) [NEW] Justin Slaten (Relief Pitcher) — Oblique (Right): Slaten (oblique) will begin a rehab assignment with Double-A Portland on Sunday, Tim Healey of The Boston Globe reports. (May 1 — 0d ago) [NEW] Sonny Gray (Starting Pitcher) — Hamstring (Right): Gray (hamstring) is throwing a live batting practice session Friday, Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com reports. (May 1 — 0d ago) [KNOWN] Johan Oviedo (Starting Pitcher) — Elbow (Right): The Red Sox transferred Oviedo (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Tuesday, Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com reports. (Apr 14 — 17d ago) [KNOWN] Tanner Houck (Starting Pitcher) — Elbow (Right): Houck (elbow) began a throwing program Monday with 25 throws from 45 feet, Ian Browne of MLB.com reports. (Feb 16 — 73d ago) [NEW] Nick Burdi (Relief Pitcher) — Undisclosed (Not Specified): The Mets reassigned Burdi to minor-league camp Tuesday. (Apr 30 — 0d ago) Astros: [KNOWN] Cristian Javier (Starting Pitcher) — Shoulder (Right): The Astros transferred Javier (shoulder) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Monday. (Apr 20 — 11d ago) [KNOWN] Zach Dezenzo (First Baseman) — Elbow (Right): Dezenzo (elbow) will begin a rehab assignment with Double-A Corpus Christi on Friday. (Apr 17 — 14d ago) [KNOWN] Jake Meyers (Center Fielder) — Oblique (Right): Meyers was removed from Wednesday's game versus the Rockies in the second inning due to lower-back tightness, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports. (Apr 10 — 21d ago) [NEW] Tatsuya Imai (SP) — Arm (Right): Imai (arm) will make another start during his minor-league rehab assignment in the coming week, Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports. (Apr 30 — 0d ago) [NEW] Ryan Weiss (RP) — Personal (Not Specified): Weiss appears in line to move to the Houston bullpen after Kai-Wei Teng was named the team's starter for Tuesday's game in Baltimore, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports. (Apr 30 — 1d ago) [NEW] Jeremy Pena (Shortstop) — Hamstring (Right): Pena (hamstring) began taking at-bats in live batting practice Tuesday, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports. (Apr 28 — 3d ago) [KNOWN] Hunter Brown (Starting Pitcher) — Shoulder (Right): Brown (shoulder) began a throwing program Tuesday, playing catching from 75 feet, Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports. (Apr 24 — 7d ago) [KNOWN] Taylor Trammell (Left Fielder) — Groin (Left): Manager Joe Espada stated after Monday's game against the Guardians that Trammell (groin) will "be out for a little bit," Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports. (Apr 21 — 10d ago) [KNOWN] Joey Loperfido (Left Fielder) — Quadriceps (Right): Astros manager Joe Espada said that Loperfido (quadriceps) will do some baseball activities Monday, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports. (Apr 20 — 11d ago) [KNOWN] Nick Allen (Shortstop) — Back (Not Specified): Allen was scratched from Saturday's lineup due to back spasms, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports. (Apr 20 — 11d ago)
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Props on this game
3Christian WalkerOVER 0.5 RBI RBI+142
Not yet graded
This is the 'Gary Special' double-down on Walker because his RBI production is currently at an elite level that the betting market hasn't fully adjusted to. Walker has recorded an RBI in 9 of his last 10 games, a streak of consistency that is rare in MLB.
He benefits immensely from batting 4th behind Carlos Correa and Yordan Alvarez, who are both reaching base at high rates. Facing a rookie lefty (Jake Bennett) making his debut, the Astros' top of the order is highly likely to create traffic on the bases, giving Walker multiple opportunities to drive in a run.
This prop correlates strongly with his Total Bases pick; if he hits for power or finds the gap at Fenway, the RBIs are almost certain to follow. The only real risk is Bennett pitching a clean, low-baserunner debut, but the numbers suggest Walker is seeing the ball too well to be held down for an entire game.
Christian WalkerOVER 1.5 Total Bases Total Bases+125
LActual 1
Christian Walker is the hottest power hitter in an Astros lineup that is currently averaging over 5 runs per game. Over his last 10 games, he is hitting .350 with 3 home runs and 6 multi-hit performances.
Tonight, he draws a favorable matchup against Jake Bennett, a 25-year-old left-hander making his major league debut. While Walker's season splits against lefties are lower than his marks against righties, his current form is undeniable, and he provides a veteran presence that is likely to exploit any command issues from a rookie in the Fenway Park environment.
The Green Monster in left field is also a prime target for Walker's right-handed pull power, often turning long fly balls into doubles that immediately clear this total bases line. The risk is that Bennett's elite Triple-A form (0.86 ERA) translates immediately, but Walker's veteran experience in high-leverage cleanup spots gives him a significant edge here.
Willson ContrerasOVER 1.5 H+R+RBI H+R+RBI-140
LActual 1
Despite the Red Sox' overall offensive struggles and recent coaching changes, Willson Contreras remains the most consistent producer in the Boston lineup. He leads the team in both home runs and RBIs and is hitting .314 over his last 10 games.
Tonight he faces Mike Burrows, who has struggled significantly with command and efficiency, evidenced by his 6.25 ERA and 1.67 WHIP. Burrows allows a high volume of baserunners, which creates multiple opportunities for Contreras—batting in the 2-hole—to record either a run-scoring hit or be driven in himself.
Contreras has cleared this 1.5 H+R+RBI line in half of his last 10 games and is the primary candidate to break Boston's current scoring drought. The risk is that the Red Sox offense around him remains so stagnant that he receives no support, forcing him to clear this line with hits alone.
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