Mariners at Twins
O/U 8 · RL Mariners -1.5 · Target Field
Mariners ML-134
CONF 82%
WCashedFinal 5-3
The read
We have a rubber match at Target Field this afternoon as George Kirby leads the Mariners against Taj Bradley and a Twins squad desperate to stop a significant spring slide. While both starters carry sub-3.00 ERAs into this contest, the underlying data tells two very different stories. Kirby has been the model of stability with a 1.04 WHIP and an xERA of 2.85 that suggests he is pitching even better than his surface results. On the other side, Taj Bradley is a prime candidate for regression; his 4.23 xERA is over a full run higher than his actual ERA, and his 1.29 WHIP suggests he has been playing with fire all season.
The Mariners have a massive tactical advantage today with their lineup construction. Seattle is rolling out six left-handed or switch-hitters against Bradley, including power threats like Josh Naylor and Cal Raleigh. This is particularly dangerous today because while the Minneapolis air is a chilly 49 degrees, there is an 11-mph wind blowing straight out to right field. Bradley’s high fly-ball rate of 70.8% is a recipe for trouble in these conditions, especially against a Seattle team that just notched a season-high six extra-base hits yesterday. Raleigh and Julio Rodriguez have historically handled Bradley well, combining for three home runs in their limited head-to-head samples.
When you look at the late innings, the gap only widens. Minnesota’s bullpen has been taxed and ineffective, surrendering six runs over the final frames yesterday, while Seattle's relief corps retired 12 straight Twins to close out the game. With Mariners closer Andres Munoz fully rested and the Twins missing key arms due to recent injuries like Garrett Acton, Seattle has the clear edge if this game is tight late. The Mariners are 7-3 in their last 10 games while the Twins have dropped 10 of 12. I am backing the superior pitcher and the team with the momentum to take the series on the road.
Injuries noted
Twins: [NEW] Garrett Acton (Relief Pitcher) — Strain (Right): The Twins placed Acton on the 15-day injured list Tuesday with a right shoulder strain, Dan Hayes of The Athletic reports. (Apr 28 — 0d ago) [NEW] Mick Abel (Starting Pitcher) — Elbow (Right): Twins manager Derek Shelton said Monday that Abel (elbow) has resumed playing catch and "all signs have been encouraging," Aaron Gleeman of The Athletic reports. (Apr 27 — 1d ago) [KNOWN] Josh Staumont (Relief Pitcher) — Undisclosed (Not Specified): The Reds re-signed Staumont to a minor-league contract Dec. 30. (Feb 12 — 75d ago) [KNOWN] Travis Adams (Starting Pitcher) — Triceps (Right): Adams (triceps) will begin a rehab assignment with Single-A Fort Myers on Wednesday, Theodore Tollefson of Zone Coverage reports. (Apr 15 — 13d ago) [KNOWN] Cody Laweryson (Relief Pitcher) — Forearm (Right): The Twins will place Laweryson on the 15-day injured list Saturday with a right forearm strain, Audra Martin of FanDuel Sports Network North reports. (Apr 11 — 18d ago) Mariners: [KNOWN] Carlos Vargas (Relief Pitcher) — Lat (Right): The Mariners transferred Vargas (lat) to the 60-day injured list Wednesday. (Apr 8 — 20d ago) [KNOWN] Logan Evans (Starting Pitcher) — Elbow (Right): Evans underwent UCL reconstruction surgery with an internal brace Jan. 23 on his right elbow. (Feb 16 — 71d ago) [NEW] Brendan Donovan (Left Fielder) — Groin (Left): Manager Dan Wilson said Tuesday that Donovan (groin) is expected to return from the injured list during the Mariners' upcoming homestand, Ryan Divish of The Seattle Times reports. (Apr 28 — 0d ago) [NEW] Bryce Miller (Starting Pitcher) — Oblique (Left): Miller (oblique) struck out six and gave up one hit and one walk over three scoreless innings Friday in a rehab start with High-A Everett. (Apr 26 — 3d ago) [KNOWN] Miles Mastrobuoni (Shortstop) — Calf (Right): Seattle transferred Mastrobuoni (calf) from the 10-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Monday. (Apr 20 — 8d ago) [KNOWN] Patrick Wisdom (First Baseman) — Oblique (Left): The Mariners placed Wisdom on the 10-day injured list Friday due to a left oblique strain, retroactive to Wednesday. (Apr 17 — 11d ago) [KNOWN] Victor Robles (Center Fielder) — Pectoral (Right): Robles (pectoral) is participating in light baseball activities, Daniel Kramer of MLB.com reports. (Apr 15 — 13d ago)
Props on this game
2Cal RaleighOVER 0.5 Walks Walks+120
Not yet graded
Cal Raleigh is elevated to the #2 spot in today's lineup, a position that maximizes his plate appearances and places him directly in front of Julio Rodriguez. While Raleigh’s batting average is struggling (.121), his plate discipline remains a core asset; he has drawn at least one walk in 4 of his last 10 games.
He faces Taj Bradley, who is a prime regression candidate (4.23 xERA vs 2.91 actual) and has shown consistent command issues, issuing 10 walks over his last 29.2 innings. With the wind blowing out to Right Field at 11 mph, Bradley must be extremely careful with Raleigh—who has 6 HR against right-handers this year—increasing the likelihood of the catcher taking a walk if Bradley falls behind in the count to avoid a damage-inducing mistake.
The risk is that Bradley finds the elite rhythm shown in his recent 10-K, 0-BB outing and attacks Raleigh’s low-average bat aggressively to avoid the heart of the order.
Byron BuxtonOVER 1.5 H+R+RBI H+R+RBI-110
LActual 1
Byron Buxton has been moved to the leadoff spot to jumpstart a slumping Twins offense, placing him in the best position to accumulate the volume needed for this prop. Buxton has been the most consistent offensive force for Minnesota in an otherwise cold month, recording 12 hits over his last 10 games and leading the team in extra-base hits.
He has cleared this 1.5 hits-runs-rbis line in three of his last ten games through multi-hit volume alone (4, 2, and 3 hits). Although George Kirby is an efficient strike-thrower, Buxton’s elite bat speed and the aggressive nature of his leadoff role mean he will see 4-5 plate appearances to find the gaps or leave the yard.
The risk is that Kirby maintains his elite 1.04 WHIP and forces Buxton into early-count outs, while the cold Twins lineup behind him fails to sustain rallies.
Every pick posts before the game and is graded after, in public. In the app you can ride or fade any of them, and your book keeps score against Gary's.
Download on the App Store