Cardinals at Pirates

The Cardinals look to secure a series victory under the gray Pittsburgh skies as Andre Pallante takes the mound against Bubba Chandler at PNC Park. St. Louis has completely controlled the first two games of this set, and while the market still lists them as the underdog, the statistical profile suggests they have the more reliable path to a win tonight.

It starts on the mound with Andre Pallante, who has reinvented himself this season with a velocity jump and a new splitter that helped him rack up eight strikeouts in his last outing. Pallante is a different pitcher away from home, carrying a 2.70 road ERA and a 2.66 night ERA that stands in stark contrast to his daytime struggles. He also has the "book" on this Pirates lineup, holding a 2.53 ERA over his last five starts against them. Compare that to Bubba Chandler, who is battling extreme command issues with a 6.0 BB/9 rate and a tendency to collapse in the middle innings. Chandler is coming off a blowout loss where he failed to escape the fourth, and facing a Cardinals lineup that just hung 11 runs yesterday is a massive challenge for a young pitcher struggling to find the zone.

The late-inning advantage also sits heavily with St. Louis. The Cardinals' bullpen is significantly better rested, with closer Riley O'Brien carrying a 1.26 ERA and seven saves into tonight. Pittsburgh’s relief corps has been shaky all week, evidenced by Dennis Santana’s blown lead on Monday and the heavy usage required to get through Tuesday’s slugfest. Combine that with the fact that St. Louis is the top-ranked defensive unit in baseball with 11 Outs Above Average, and you have a team that doesn't beat itself. Between Pallante’s night-game dominance and the Pirates' current three-game slide, the momentum is clearly on the side of the visitors.