Cardinals at Pirates

PNC Park sits under the lights for a high-stakes NL Central clash between two teams separated by just a half-game in the standings, as the Pirates look to shake off a gut-punch loss and the Cardinals aim to ride a new wave of momentum. On paper, this pitching matchup looks like a total mismatch favoring Pittsburgh, but beneath the surface of the ERA totals lies a structural problem for the home team that makes the plus-money on St. Louis (15-13) the sharper play.

Braxton Ashcraft is the real deal, sporting a 2.43 ERA and an even more impressive 2.08 xERA, but he is stepping onto the mound for a team with an almost non-existent safety net tonight. After yesterday’s nine-inning meltdown where the Pirates (16-13) used seven relievers—including over 40 pitches from Wilber Dotel and a blown save from Dennis Santana—manager Don Kelly is effectively playing with a three-man bullpen. Justin Lawrence, Cam Sanders, and Evan Sisk are likely down after back-to-back usage, leaving the Pirates completely vulnerable if Ashcraft can’t provide seven or eight elite innings. In contrast, the Cardinals have their primary high-leverage arms like Riley O'Brien and JoJo Romero fully rested and ready to protect a lead.

The Cardinals' offense finally woke up in yesterday’s 9th inning, snapping a 36-inning scoreless drought at PNC Park in the most explosive way possible. JJ Wetherholt is the hottest hitter in this series, homering in three straight games and returning to his home state of Pennsylvania with a vengeance. While Kyle Leahy’s 5.63 ERA and 1.67 WHIP are admittedly a liability, the Cardinals only need him to survive five innings before they can turn the game over to a fresh and superior relief corps. The Pirates are in a redemption spot, but you can’t redeem yourself with a tired arm. I’m taking the value with the Cardinals to exploit a thin Pittsburgh bridge and secure the series lead.