Red Sox at Orioles
O/U 8.5 · RL Orioles -1.5 · Oriole Park at Camden Yards
Orioles ML-120
CONF 72%
WCashedFinal 3-10
The read
We’ve got the first divisional clash of the season at Camden Yards tonight as the Red Sox and Orioles try to find some footing in an early-season AL East race that’s already getting away from the basement. It’s a matchup between two pitching staffs held together by tape and Triple-A call-ups, but the situational gap between these two clubs right now is wider than the Chesapeake Bay.
The logic here starts and ends with Brayan Bello’s current form, which has been nothing short of a disaster. You can’t survive in this league with a 1.93 WHIP, and his 6.85 xERA tells us that the 12 earned runs he’s coughed up over his last 12 innings are no fluke. He’s walking everyone in sight and facing an Orioles lineup that just got Adley Rutschman back into a rhythm. Rutschman is already mashing righties to the tune of a 1.008 OPS this season, and with the Red Sox defense missing rookie outfielder Roman Anthony today due to a back issue, the margin for error for a struggling Bello has completely vanished.
On the other side, Brandon Young is certainly a regression candidate given his low strikeout rate in his debut, but he’s facing a Boston team that’s in a total offensive deep-freeze, scoring two or fewer runs in five of their last six games. The Orioles also come into this one with a massive rest advantage after an off-day, allowing them to reset a high-leverage bullpen that just added Andrew Kittredge back to the mix. Boston is reeling from a sweep by the Yankees and asking an exhausted bullpen to back up a starter who can barely get through five innings. At -120, the price for the rested home team against a spiraling starter is too good to pass up. I’m laying it with the O’s.
Injuries noted
Orioles: [NEW] Yaramil Hiraldo (Relief Pitcher) — Shoulder (Right): Hiraldo is scheduled to meet with Dr. Neal ElAttrache on Monday to receive a second opinion on his inflamed right shoulder, Andy Kostka of TheBanner.com reports. (Apr 20 — 3d ago) [KNOWN] Dietrich Enns (Relief Pitcher) — Foot (Left): Enns (foot) will embark on a rehab assignment with Triple-A Norfolk on Saturday, Jake Rill of MLB.com reports. (Apr 18 — 6d ago) [KNOWN] Heston Kjerstad (Left Fielder) — Hamstring (Right): Kjerstad (hamstring) is running and participating in baseball activities, per MLB.com. (Apr 14 — 9d ago) [KNOWN] Keegan Akin (Relief Pitcher) — Groin (Left): Akin (groin) will begin a rehab assignment Wednesday, Matt Weyrich of The Baltimore Sun reports. (Apr 14 — 10d ago) [KNOWN] Ryan Mountcastle (First Baseman) — Foot (Left): The Orioles placed Mountcastle (foot) on the 60-day injured list Monday. (Apr 13 — 11d ago) [KNOWN] Zach Eflin (Starting Pitcher) — Elbow (Right): Eflin underwent Tommy John surgery on his right elbow Wednesday, Andy Kostka of TheBaltimoreBanner.com reports. (Apr 8 — 15d ago) [KNOWN] Luis Vazquez (Shortstop) — Thumb (Right): Orioles manager Craig Albernaz said Monday that Vazquez has been diagnosed with a broken right thumb, Andy Kostka of TheBaltimoreBanner.com reports. (Mar 29 — 26d ago) [KNOWN] Colin Selby (Relief Pitcher) — Shoulder (Right): The Orioles placed Selby on the 60-day injured list Saturday with right shoulder inflammation, Rich Dubroff of BaltimoreBaseball.com reports. (Feb 14 — 68d ago) [NEW] Dean Kremer (Starting Pitcher) — Quadriceps (Right): The Orioles placed Kremer on the 15-day injured list, retroactive to April 20, due to a right quadriceps strain, Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com reports. (Apr 23 — 0d ago) [NEW] Ryan Helsley (Relief Pitcher) — Personal (Not Specified): Helsley walked one and struck out one in a scoreless ninth inning Friday to record his sixth save of the season in a 6-4 win over the Guardians. (Apr 22 — 2d ago) Red Sox: [NEW] Roman Anthony (Center Fielder) — Back (Not Specified): Anthony (back) is out of the lineup for Friday's game against the Orioles, Rob Bradford of WEEI.com reports. (Apr 24 — 0d ago) [NEW] Sonny Gray (Starting Pitcher) — Hamstring (Right): Red Sox manager Alex Cora said Thursday that the MRI on Gray's right hamstring did not reveal anything worse than expected, Gabrielle Starr of the Boston Herald reports. (Apr 23 — 1d ago) [KNOWN] Justin Slaten (Relief Pitcher) — Oblique (Right): Red Sox manager Alex Cora told reporters that Slaten (oblique) played catch Friday and Saturday, Gabrielle Starr of the Boston Herald reports. (Apr 18 — 6d ago) [KNOWN] Johan Oviedo (Starting Pitcher) — Elbow (Right): The Red Sox transferred Oviedo (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Tuesday, Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com reports. (Apr 14 — 10d ago) [KNOWN] Tanner Houck (Starting Pitcher) — Elbow (Right): Houck (elbow) began a throwing program Monday with 25 throws from 45 feet, Ian Browne of MLB.com reports. (Feb 16 — 66d ago)
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