Yankees at Red Sox

The lights are bright at Fenway Park tonight as the Yankees look to finish the job and complete a dominant three-game sweep of their oldest rivals. New York has completely suffocated the Boston offense over the first two nights, and the pitching matchup for this finale suggests the trend is only going to continue.

Cam Schlittler is pitching like a man possessed right now, and his 1.95 ERA actually understates how dominant he has been when you look at his 0.87 FIP and dominant strikeout stuff (36 K in 27.2 IP). He is finding the zone with high-velocity heat and possesses a nearly 12-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio that is simply terrifying for a Red Sox lineup that has scored exactly one run in this series. Schlittler already has the mental edge here, too; he walked into this park during last year's postseason and carved up the Sox for eight scoreless innings. With the wind blowing ten miles per hour from left to right, his ability to blow high-velocity fastballs past a struggling lineup makes him the most dangerous player on the field tonight.

On the other side, the Red Sox are in a desperate spot. Losing Sonny Gray to a fresh hamstring injury has forced them to call up Payton Tolle for a spot start against the hottest team in the American League. Tolle has struggled with the long ball in his limited MLB action, carrying a 6.06 ERA, and that is a recipe for disaster against a Yankees core that ranks third in the league in home runs. Specifically, Aaron Judge has been historic against southpaws this season, hitting .341 with a 1.279 OPS, and the heart of the order is built to exploit this specific matchup. When you combine a rookie lefty on a short leash with a Red Sox bullpen that is already taxed from covering 8.2 innings the last two nights, the Yankees have a clear path to victory. Boston is tied for the fewest home runs in the majors and is missing a key power threat in Roman Anthony; they simply don't have the firepower to keep up with Schlittler and a fresh Yankees back-end bullpen. I am riding the hot hand and the massive pitching mismatch here.