MLB · Thu, Apr 23 · 6:10 PM

Yankees at Red Sox

O/U 7.5 · RL Yankees -1.5 · Fenway Park

GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Red Sox· -144

The lights are bright at Fenway Park tonight as the Yankees look to finish the job and complete a dominant three-game sweep of their oldest rivals. New York has completely suffocated the Boston offense over the first two nights, and the pitching matchup for this finale suggests the trend is only going to continue. Cam Schlittler is pitching like a man possessed right now, and his 1.95 ERA actually understates how dominant he has been when you look at his 0.87 FIP and dominant strikeout stuff (36 K in 27.2 IP). He is finding the zone with high-velocity heat and possesses a nearly 12-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio that is simply terrifying for a Red Sox lineup that has scored exactly one run in this series. Schlittler already has the mental edge here, too; he walked into this park during last year's postseason and carved up the Sox for eight scoreless innings. With the wind blowing ten miles per hour from left to right, his ability to blow high-velocity fastballs past a struggling lineup makes him the most dangerous player on the field tonight. On the other side, the Red Sox are in a desperate spot. Losing Sonny Gray to a fresh hamstring injury has forced them to call up Payton Tolle for a spot start against the hottest team in the American League. Tolle has struggled with the long ball in his limited MLB action, carrying a 6.06 ERA, and that is a recipe for disaster against a Yankees core that ranks third in the league in home runs. Specifically, Aaron Judge has been historic against southpaws this season, hitting .341 with a 1.279 OPS, and the heart of the order is built to exploit this specific matchup. When you combine a rookie lefty on a short leash with a Red Sox bullpen that is already taxed from covering 8.2 innings the last two nights, the Yankees have a clear path to victory. Boston is tied for the fewest home runs in the majors and is missing a key power threat in Roman Anthony; they simply don't have the firepower to keep up with Schlittler and a fresh Yankees back-end bullpen. I am riding the hot hand and the massive pitching mismatch here.

Cam Schlittler is pitching like a man possessed right now, and his 1.95 ERA actually understates how dominant he has been when you look at his 0.87 FIP and dominant strikeout stuff (36 K in 27.2 IP). He is finding the zone with high-velocity heat and possesses a nearly 12-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio that is simply terrifying for a Red Sox lineup that has scored exactly one run in this series. Schlittler already has the mental edge here, too; he walked into this park during last year's postseason and carved up the Sox for eight scoreless innings. With the wind blowing ten miles per hour from left to right, his ability to blow high-velocity fastballs past a struggling lineup makes him the most dangerous player on the field tonight.

On the other side, the Red Sox are in a desperate spot. Losing Sonny Gray to a fresh hamstring injury has forced them to call up Payton Tolle for a spot start against the hottest team in the American League. Tolle has struggled with the long ball in his limited MLB action, carrying a 6.06 ERA, and that is a recipe for disaster against a Yankees core that ranks third in the league in home runs. Specifically, Aaron Judge has been historic against southpaws this season, hitting .341 with a 1.279 OPS, and the heart of the order is built to exploit this specific matchup. When you combine a rookie lefty on a short leash with a Red Sox bullpen that is already taxed from covering 8.2 innings the last two nights, the Yankees have a clear path to victory. Boston is tied for the fewest home runs in the majors and is missing a key power threat in Roman Anthony; they simply don't have the firepower to keep up with Schlittler and a fresh Yankees back-end bullpen. I am riding the hot hand and the massive pitching mismatch here.

The pick & result

Published pick: Yankees ML -144
Published odds: -144
Result: Won
Final score: 4-2

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

The read

Injuries noted

Red Sox: [NEW] Sonny Gray (Starting Pitcher) — Hamstring (Right): Red Sox manager Alex Cora said Thursday that the MRI on Gray's right hamstring did not reveal anything worse than expected, Gabrielle Starr of the Boston Herald reports. (Apr 23 — 0d ago) [NEW] Roman Anthony (Center Fielder) — Back (Not Specified): Red Sox manager Alex Cora said in an interview on the WEEI Sports Radio Network that Anthony (back) will remain out of the lineup Thursday against the Yankees. (Apr 23 — 0d ago) [KNOWN] Justin Slaten (Relief Pitcher) — Oblique (Right): Red Sox manager Alex Cora told reporters that Slaten (oblique) played catch Friday and Saturday, Gabrielle Starr of the Boston Herald reports. (Apr 18 — 5d ago) [KNOWN] Johan Oviedo (Starting Pitcher) — Elbow (Right): The Red Sox transferred Oviedo (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Tuesday, Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com reports. (Apr 14 — 9d ago) [KNOWN] Tanner Houck (Starting Pitcher) — Elbow (Right): Houck (elbow) began a throwing program Monday with 25 throws from 45 feet, Ian Browne of MLB.com reports. (Feb 16 — 65d ago) Yankees: [NEW] Ryan Weathers (Starting Pitcher) — Personal (Not Specified): Weathers (1-2) earned the win Sunday against the Royals, allowing no runs on five hits and one walk in 7.1 innings. He struck out eight. (Apr 22 — 1d ago) [KNOWN] Scott Effross (Relief Pitcher) — Oblique (Left): Effross (oblique) will throw a bullpen session Friday, Chris McCosky of The Detroit News reports. (Apr 2 — 21d ago) [NEW] Gerrit Cole (Starting Pitcher) — Elbow (Right): Cole (elbow) will make his next rehab start Thursday with High-A Hudson Valley, Gary Phillips of the New York Daily News reports. (Apr 21 — 1d ago)

About this analysis

Who made it: Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data: Daily picks first stored April 23, 2026 at 11:42 AM ET.
Odds record: The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, fanatics, caesars, draftkings, betmgm, betrivers.
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Props on this game

GARY'S PICK
AARON JUDGETOTAL BASES OVER 1.5
MLBYankees· +105
LOST · ACTUAL 1
Aaron Judge enters this matchup in a prime position to exploit a rookie left-hander. Payton Tolle is making his season debut at Fenway Park, and his limited 2026 data shows a vulnerability to the long ball (1 HR in 2.0 IP). Judge, who already has 9 home runs this season and 3 in his last 10 games, is the premier right-handed power threat in the game. Fenway Park’s dimensions are favorable for Judge; the short left-field wall (Green Monster) and the reachable right-field porch provide multiple paths to extra bases. With 10 mph winds blowing from Left to Right, Judge’s ability to drive the ball to all fields is further amplified. A single extra-base hit or two singles clears this line, and against a rookie southpaw likely to experience debut jitters, Judge's power profile makes the 'Over' on 1.5 total bases the strongest offensive play on the board.
Aaron Judge
Total Bases over 1.5
+105 · LOST · ACTUAL 1
Yankees
Aaron Judge enters this matchup in a prime position to exploit a rookie left-hander. Payton Tolle is making his season debut at Fenway Park, and his limited 2026 data shows a vulnerability to the long ball (1 HR in 2.0 IP).
Judge, who already has 9 home runs this season and 3 in his last 10 games, is the premier right-handed power threat in the game. Fenway Park’s dimensions are favorable for Judge; the short left-field wall (Green Monster) and the reachable right-field porch provide multiple paths to extra bases.
With 10 mph winds blowing from Left to Right, Judge’s ability to drive the ball to all fields is further amplified. A single extra-base hit or two singles clears this line, and against a rookie southpaw likely to experience debut jitters, Judge's power profile makes the 'Over' on 1.5 total bases the strongest offensive play on the board.
GARY'S PICK
CAM SCHLITTLERPITCHER OUTS OVER 16.5
MLBYankees· -112
✓ CASHED · ACTUAL 24
Cam Schlittler has emerged as a frontline starter for the Yankees, characterized by elite efficiency and command. He has issued just 3 walks across 27.2 innings this season, a strike-throwing ability that allows him to work deep into games. He faces a Boston Red Sox lineup that is currently in a historic slump, having been held to a single run through the first two games of this series. Key Boston hitters like Trevor Story (.130 L10) and Jarren Duran (.190 L10) are struggling to make consistent contact. Schlittler dominated this same opponent in the 2025 AL Wild Card Series (8.0 IP), and his current form (1.95 ERA) suggests he will maintain his efficiency tonight. To clear 16.5 outs, Schlittler needs to record just two outs in the 6th inning. Given Boston's inability to drive up pitch counts through walks or hits right now, Schlittler is highly likely to reach the 6th inning and beyond.
Cam Schlittler
Pitcher Outs over 16.5
-112 · CASHED · ACTUAL 24
Yankees
Cam Schlittler has emerged as a frontline starter for the Yankees, characterized by elite efficiency and command. He has issued just 3 walks across 27.2 innings this season, a strike-throwing ability that allows him to work deep into games. He faces a Boston Red Sox lineup that is currently in a historic slump, having been held to a single run through the first two games of this series.
Key Boston hitters like Trevor Story (.130 L10) and Jarren Duran (.190 L10) are struggling to make consistent contact. Schlittler dominated this same opponent in the 2025 AL Wild Card Series (8.0 IP), and his current form (1.95 ERA) suggests he will maintain his efficiency tonight. To clear 16.5 outs, Schlittler needs to record just two outs in the 6th inning.
Given Boston's inability to drive up pitch counts through walks or hits right now, Schlittler is highly likely to reach the 6th inning and beyond.

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