Twins at Mets
O/U 8 · RL Twins -1.5 · Citi Field
The pick & result
- Published pick
- Twins ML -110
- Published odds
- -110
- Result
- Lost
- Final score
- 8-10
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
The read
It is a crisp, clear evening in Queens as the Twins and Mets meet for a decisive rubber match under the lights of Citi Field. While the Mets (8-16) managed to exhale after snapping their grueling 12-game skid yesterday, the tactical reality of this matchup leans heavily toward Minnesota (12-12), starting right on the mound with a massive pitching disparity.
Joe Ryan is the clear class of this duel, carrying an elite 0.88 WHIP and a 2.64 xERA that suggests he has been even more dominant than his solid 3.29 ERA indicates. Ryan is a fly-ball specialist who should thrive in tonight's conditions; with an 11-mph wind blowing straight in from left field, deep flies that might leave other parks are likely to die at the warning track. He has already shown he can neutralize the Mets' biggest threats, famously keeping Juan Soto hitless in their previous encounters. On the other side, the Mets are rolling the dice with Christian Scott in his first MLB action since 2024 Tommy John surgery. Scott struggled to a 5.27 ERA in Triple-A during his rehab stint and will likely be on a restricted pitch count, forcing a tired Mets bullpen to carry a heavy load.
The loss of Francisco Lindor to the IL today is a fresh blow that the market may still be digesting. It forces Bo Bichette over to shortstop, weakening the infield defense behind a young pitcher making his debut. Minnesota's offense has been significantly more productive lately, averaging 5.5 runs over their last ten games compared to the Mets' anemic 2.2. Even with Royce Lewis taking a rest day, Byron Buxton is locked in, having homered in both games of this series. Between the superior starter, the wind conditions favoring Ryan, and the disruption to the Mets' lineup, the Twins are the right side to take this series.
Injuries noted
Mets: [KNOWN] Jared Young (First Baseman) — Knee (Left): The Mets placed Young on the 10-day injured list Wednesday, retroactive to Monday, due to a meniscus tear in his left knee. (Apr 15 — 8d ago) [KNOWN] Joey Gerber (Relief Pitcher) — Finger (Right): Gerber struck out five and gave up two hits and a walk over two scoreless innings of relief in Monday's loss to the Dodgers. (Apr 14 — 8d ago) [KNOWN] Justin Hagenman (Relief Pitcher) — Ribs: The Mets placed Hagenman on the 60-day injured list Saturday due to a rib fracture. (Mar 14 — 40d ago) [KNOWN] Dedniel Nunez (Relief Pitcher) — Elbow (Right): The Mets transferred Nunez (elbow) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Monday. (Feb 15 — 67d ago) [KNOWN] Tylor Megill (Starting Pitcher) — Elbow (Right): The Mets and Megill (elbow) avoided arbitration by agreeing to a one-year, $2.5 million contract Thursday, Ari Alexander of 7 News Boston reports. (Feb 12 — 70d ago) [KNOWN] Reed Garrett (Relief Pitcher) — Elbow (Right): The Mets placed Garrett (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Tuesday. (Feb 10 — 72d ago) [NEW] Francisco Lindor (Shortstop) — Calf (Left): The Mets placed Lindor on the 10-day injured list Thursday with a left calf strain. (Apr 23 — 0d ago) [KNOWN] Jorge Polanco (Second Baseman) — Wrist (Right): Manager Carlos Mendoza said Friday that the Mets are awaiting the results of an MRI on Polanco's right wrist as the veteran infielder remains sidelined due to a sore Achilles, Max Goodman of NJ.com reports. (Apr 18 — 5d ago) [KNOWN] Kevin Herget (Relief Pitcher) — Undisclosed: Herget signed a minor league contract that includes an invitation to spring training with the Mets on Thursday, Will Sammon of The Athletic reports. (Apr 18 — 5d ago) Twins: [KNOWN] Josh Staumont (Relief Pitcher) — Undisclosed (Not Specified): The Reds re-signed Staumont to a minor-league contract Dec. 30. (Feb 12 — 69d ago) [NEW] Kody Funderburk (Relief Pitcher) — Personal (Not Specified): The Twins placed Funderburk on the paternity list Tuesday. (Apr 21 — 2d ago) [NEW] Mick Abel (Starting Pitcher) — Elbow (Right): The right elbow injury that landed Abel on the 15-day injured list Monday is not considered to be overly serious, Dan Hayes of The Athletic reports. (Apr 20 — 3d ago) [KNOWN] Travis Adams (Starting Pitcher) — Triceps (Right): Adams (triceps) will begin a rehab assignment with Single-A Fort Myers on Wednesday, Theodore Tollefson of Zone Coverage reports. (Apr 15 — 8d ago) [KNOWN] Cody Laweryson (Relief Pitcher) — Forearm (Right): The Twins will place Laweryson on the 15-day injured list Saturday with a right forearm strain, Audra Martin of FanDuel Sports Network North reports. (Apr 11 — 12d ago)
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Daily picks first stored April 23, 2026 at 11:42 AM ET.
- Odds record
- The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, fanatics, caesars, draftkings, betmgm, betrivers.
- Accountability
- Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.
Props on this game
2- GARY'S PICKJOE RYANPITCHER OUTS OVER 17.5
Joe Ryan has been the model of efficiency for the Twins this season, evidenced by his elite 0.88 WHIP and 3:28 BB:K ratio through 27.1 innings. In his last three starts, he has completed at least 6.0 innings twice, failing only against Cleveland on April 5th.
Tonight he faces a Mets offense that is not only missing its primary catalyst in Francisco Lindor (IL - calf) but is also averaging just 3.3 runs per game. Ryan's ability to command the zone without issuing walks (averaging roughly one walk every 9 innings) keeps his pitch count low enough to navigate deep into games.
With the wind blowing in at 11 mph at Citi Field, fly balls that might otherwise be dangerous are more likely to stay in the yard, further incentivizing the Twins' coaching staff to leave Ryan in for the full six innings (18 outs) required to clear this line.
- GARY'S PICKBYRON BUXTONTOTAL BASES OVER 1.5
Byron Buxton is currently playing his best baseball of the young 2026 season, entering tonight on a streak of two consecutive games with a home run and a 6-for-10 performance over the first two games of this series. He leads the Twins with five home runs and is hitting atop the order, ensuring a high volume of plate appearances (4-5 expected).
He draws a favorable matchup against Christian Scott, who is making his 2026 MLB debut after a long recovery from Tommy John surgery. Scott's Triple-A rehab was shaky (5.27 ERA), and his expected pitch count of ~75-80 pitches means Buxton will likely see a heavily worked Mets bullpen for at least half of his at-bats.
Buxton’s recent exit velocity and elite timing make the 1.5 total bases line achievable through a single extra-base hit or a multi-hit performance, even with the wind blowing in.
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