Pirates at Rangers

It's a clash of generations under the roof in Arlington as two-time Cy Young winner Jacob deGrom looks to secure the series for Texas against Pittsburgh's flame-throwing rookie Bubba Chandler. This game is being priced entirely on the starting pitcher names, with the Rangers sitting as heavy -162 favorites, but the value here lies with the Pirates because of what happens after the starters exit the mound.

Jacob deGrom is pitching like his classic self with a 2.29 ERA and 25 strikeouts in less than 20 innings, but he is currently being capped at roughly five innings or 90 pitches per start. That is a massive problem for Texas today because their bullpen is in shambles. The Rangers placed Robert Garcia on the IL today, joining Chris Martin and Luis Curvelo on the shelf. This leaves a middle relief corps that was just tagged for four runs in the ninth inning yesterday to face the heart of a Pirates lineup that is averaging 5.1 runs per game. You're essentially paying a steep deGrom premium for a team that is forced to play "bullpen roulette" for the final 12 outs of the game.

The Pirates are catching the Rangers at the right time. Texas is dealing with fresh absences to both Robert Garcia in the pen and Wyatt Langford in the heart of the order, while Corey Seager continues to search for his rhythm during a .193 hitting slump. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh’s Oneil Cruz is playing like a superstar, coming off a game-winning 116.9 mph home run yesterday. While rookie Bubba Chandler has a high 15.3% walk rate, his 101-mph heat and low .183 opponent average suggest he can keep things close enough to hand the lead over to a rested Pittsburgh staff. In a rubber match where the favorite has a compromised bridge to the ninth, I’m taking the plus money on the more productive offense.