Padres at Rockies

The sun is high over Coors Field as the San Diego Padres and Colorado Rockies settle in for a matinee rubber match that promises plenty of drama in the thin Denver air. I’m looking past Matt Waldron’s ugly 14.73 ERA here; that number is derived from a single disastrous start, and his 4.77 xERA suggests he’s a prime candidate for major positive regression. Ryan Feltner, meanwhile, is playing with fire. He’s already surrendered five home runs in just 18 innings this season, and while his 2.81 daytime ERA might catch some eyes, his 6.96 xERA indicates he’s been incredibly lucky to avoid further damage. Against a Padres core featuring Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr., that high-contact profile is a recipe for trouble at Coors.

The weather provides a sneaky edge that the market might be overlooking. A 17-mph wind blowing straight in from left field is a rarity in Colorado, and it’s going to suppress the power of the Rockies’ left-handed heavy lineup, turning would-be home runs into long fly outs. This significantly helps a pitcher like Waldron, who relies on unpredictable movement and defensive support to be successful. The Padres are one of the cleanest defensive teams in the league with just six errors all season, whereas the Rockies have already coughed up 14 miscues. In a park where extra outs are lethal, I trust San Diego to play the more disciplined game.

The real clincher for me is the bullpen discrepancy. After a lopsided loss yesterday, the Padres have their elite high-leverage arms—Mason Miller and Jason Adam—completely rested and ready to shut the door. The Rockies used Antonio Senzatela for two innings to close out yesterday's win, potentially leaving them short-handed if this game is tight in the 8th. San Diego has won five of the six meetings between these teams this year, and even with a few lineup adjustments for the matinee, the 16-8 Padres have the defensive reliability and the relief pitching necessary to take this series finale from the 10-15 Rockies.