Reds at Rays
O/U 8.5 · RL Rays -1.5 · Tropicana Field
Cincinnati Reds ML+118
CONF 72%
LLostFinal 1-6
The read
Sunlight is locked out of Tropicana Field, but the Cincinnati Reds are bringing plenty of their own heat as they look to put the finishing touches on a dominant road sweep of the Tampa Bay Rays. I’ve spent thirty years watching these types of series, and right now, Cincinnati is playing with the kind of "nothing can stop us" energy that makes them the most dangerous team in the league on the road. They’ve already outscored Tampa 18-7 in the first two games of this set, and the physical and mental toll of those blowouts is clearly weighing on the home team.
The most glaring edge today isn't even in the starting pitching—it’s the state of the bullpens and the basepaths. Tampa Bay's relief corps is effectively running on fumes after surrendering 18 runs this series; they were so depleted yesterday they had to put an infielder on the mound to finish the game. Conversely, the Reds have high-leverage arms like Emilio Pagán fresh and ready to go. When you combine a tired Rays bullpen with Nick Fortes’ struggles behind the plate—he’s allowed 23 stolen bases on 25 attempts this season—you get a situation where every walk or single by speedsters like Elly De La Cruz or TJ Friedl becomes an immediate runner in scoring position.
While Nick Martinez has been respectable for Tampa, his 4.66 xERA suggests he’s been dancing between raindrops all season, and the Reds’ lineup is the last group you want to face when regression starts to call. Sal Stewart is currently leading the majors in RBIs, and De La Cruz is coming off a record-setting multi-homer performance. The Rays just lost Jake Fraley to a leg injury today, further thinning a lineup that has seen Yandy Diaz go hitless over the last three games. With the Reds boasting a staggering 10-2 road record and a five-game winning streak, I’m not about to bet against them as an underdog here. Cincinnati has the momentum, the speed advantage, and the fresher arms to finish the job for Terry Francona’s birthday.
Injuries noted
Rays: [NEW] Jake Fraley (Right Fielder) — Lower Leg (Right): Fraley (lower leg) is out of the lineup for Wednesday's game against the Reds, Ryan Bass of Rays.tv reports. (Apr 22 — 0d ago) [NEW] Gavin Lux (Second Baseman) — Shoulder (Right): Lux (shoulder/ankle) is expected to resume his rehab assignment with Triple-A Durham on Tuesday or Wednesday, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports. (Apr 21 — 1d ago) [NEW] Joe Boyle (Starting Pitcher) — Elbow (Right): Boyle (elbow) is playing catch from 90 feet, MLB.com reports. (Apr 20 — 1d ago) [NEW] Ryan Pepiot (Starting Pitcher) — Hip (Right): Rays manager Kevin Cash said that Pepiot's injured right hip felt "unstable" while the pitcher played catch Monday, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports. (Apr 20 — 1d ago) [NEW] Mason Englert (Relief Pitcher) — Forearm (Right): Englert earned the save in Sunday's 5-4 win over the Yankees, allowing two earned runs on three hits and one walk while striking out one over one inning of relief. (Apr 20 — 1d ago) [NEW] Garrett Cleavinger (Relief Pitcher) — Calf (Right): Cleavinger (calf) began a rehab assignment with Triple-A Durham on Sunday, walking three and giving up a three-run home run in one-third of an inning. (Apr 19 — 2d ago) [KNOWN] Logan Driscoll (Catcher) — Ankle (Right): The Rays released Driscoll (ankle) on Friday, Ryan Bass of FanDuel Sports Network Sun reports. (Feb 18 — 62d ago) [KNOWN] Manuel Rodriguez (Relief Pitcher) — Elbow (Right): Rodriguez will have right elbow surgery Aug. 8 to address a flexor tendon repair, and his UCL will be evaluated during the surgery to determine if any additional procedures are needed, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports. (Feb 10 — 70d ago) Reds: [NEW] Jose Trevino (Catcher) — Back (Not Specified): Trevino (back) could be activated Wednesday, Mark Sheldon of MLB.com reports. (Apr 21 — 0d ago) [NEW] Nick Lodolo (Starting Pitcher) — Finger (Left): Lodolo (finger) threw 50 pitches over three innings in a simulated game Tuesday, Mark Sheldon of MLB.com reports. (Apr 21 — 0d ago) [NEW] Caleb Ferguson (Relief Pitcher) — Oblique (Right): Ferguson (oblique) threw 16 pitches in a one-inning simulated game Monday, MLB.com reports. (Apr 21 — 1d ago) [KNOWN] Hunter Greene (Starting Pitcher) — Elbow (Right): The Reds placed Greene (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Monday. (Mar 23 — 29d ago)
About this analysis
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- Board stored April 22, 2026 at 10:47 AM ET.
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Props on this game
2Sal StewartOVER 1.5 Total Bases Total Bases+125
LActual 1
Sal Stewart is the engine of a Cincinnati offense currently on a five-game winning streak. Over his last 10 games, Stewart is batting .448 and has showcased both contact and power, recording multi-hit games or home runs in four of his last six outings.
He faces Nick Martinez, whose season ERA (2.45) is heavily contradicted by a 4.66 xERA, suggesting he has been fortunate to avoid more damage. Martinez is coming off a catastrophic outing where he surrendered 12 hits and 11 earned runs in just 3.2 innings.
Given Stewart's elite form and his protection in the cleanup spot, he is well-positioned to collect multiple bases against a pitcher struggling with command and contact suppression.
Nick MartinezUNDER 4.5 Strikeouts Strikeouts-118
LActual 6
Nick Martinez is currently lacking the 'swing-and-miss' stuff required to clear a 4.5 strikeout line. He has failed to reach 5 strikeouts in any of his last five starts, posting a sequence of 3, 4, 4, 3, and 0 strikeouts.
Most concerning was his most recent performance, where he failed to record a single strikeout while being tagged for 11 earned runs. He faces a Cincinnati lineup that is currently the hottest in the league and is likely to put early pressure on him.
If the Reds continue their high-scoring trend (18 runs in the last two games), Martinez's outing could be cut short for the second consecutive time, severely limiting his opportunities to rack up strikeouts. Against high-contact hitters like Stewart and McLain, Martinez’s low K/9 profile makes the 'Under' the high-probability play.
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