Cardinals at Marlins

The morning sun is hitting the retractable roof at loanDepot park as the Cardinals and Marlins prepare for an early rubber match to decide this three-game set. Both teams have traded 5-3 victories to start the week, but this matinee provides a clear opportunity to back a massive pitching regression gap that the surface numbers are working hard to hide.

The center of this handicap is Janson Junk. While his 0-2 record and 4.50 ERA might scare off the casual bettor, the underlying Statcast data tells a completely different story. Junk’s 3.57 xERA indicates he’s been the victim of some tough luck, particularly with his ability to keep the ball in the yard. On the other side, Kyle Leahy is a major regression candidate; his 5.21 ERA is actually an overperformance compared to a dismal 5.71 xERA and a bloated 1.53 WHIP. Leahy gives up nearly two home runs per nine innings, and in a park currently playing as a hitter’s haven with a 1.03 factor, that’s a recipe for an early exit.

What really seals the deal for me is the defensive situation. The Cardinals are resting Masyn Winn today. For a pitcher like Leahy, who relies on a 52% ground-ball rate to survive, losing an elite-range shortstop like Winn is catastrophic. Miami’s lineup is currently barreling the ball at a 6.3% rate and producing a 45.3% hard-hit rate over their last few games. With Xavier Edwards and Otto Lopez consistently reaching base, they are going to put immense pressure on a St. Louis defense that is missing its most important safety net.

I’m not worried about the Marlins' 11-13 overall record here; they are 9-6 at home and have a much more stable bullpen bridge to Pete Fairbanks than the Cardinals do to Riley O'Brien. The Cardinals have won six of their last seven, but they’ve been playing with fire given their staff's 4.78 ERA. Today, Junk finds his first win of the season as the Cardinals' pitching luck finally runs out in the Miami heat. I'm laying the price on the Fish.