Tigers at Red Sox

The breakfast smells are still in the air at Fenway Park as the Tigers and Red Sox wrap up this Patriots’ Day series in a traditional early morning tilt. Detroit has looked like the much more complete team over the last three days, and there is no reason to believe that changes in the finale. While the Red Sox are the home favorites, the underlying numbers on these two starting pitchers tell a story of two guys moving in opposite directions, and I’m banking on the team that actually knows how to put the ball in the seats right now.

Sonny Gray’s season stats are masking some serious red flags that a sharp bettor can’t ignore. His strikeout rate has cratered to a career-low 4.89 K/9, and his average fastball velocity is sitting at a pedestrian 91.7 mph. When you look at his 5.31 xERA compared to his 4.43 ERA, it’s clear he’s been playing with fire, and a Detroit lineup (12-10) featuring a red-hot Dillon Dingler is exactly the kind of group to make him pay. Jack Flaherty, on the other hand, is finally looking like the high-ceiling arm the Tigers paid for. He’s missing bats at an elite clip lately, posting 13 strikeouts over his last two outings. Boston’s lineup (8-13) is currently mired in a massive power drought—ranking dead last in the majors in home runs—and if they can’t drive the ball, they aren't going to punish Flaherty’s occasional walk issues.

The situational factors also point toward Detroit. The wind is projected to blow out toward right field, which plays right into the hands of Tigers lefties like Kerry Carpenter and Dingler, who already have the momentum of a 2-1 series lead. Boston’s bullpen took a hit with the recent loss of Justin Slaten to the IL, while Detroit has a fresh Kenley Jansen waiting to shut the door in the ninth. Getting a team that has won 8 of its last 10 games at plus-money against a struggling starter is a spot I’ll take every time. Detroit completes the statement series win here.