Reds at Twins

We’ve got a crisp Saturday afternoon at Target Field where the flags are whipped stiff toward the right-field porch, and the National League Central-leading Reds are looking to continue their road dominance against a Twins squad that’s feeling the squeeze after a quiet Friday night. While the back of the baseball cards might tell you Taj Bradley is an early Cy Young favorite and Andrew Abbott is a struggle bus, the deeper data and the Minneapolis wind suggest we are walking into a classic regression trap.

The market has Taj Bradley priced like a lockdown ace because of that shiny 1.25 ERA, but his xERA of 3.29 screams that he’s been living on borrowed time. Bradley is a strikeout machine, but he’s remarkably vulnerable to right-handed power, giving up a .400 wOBA and a 5.03 xFIP to righties. That is a massive problem when you’re facing a 22-year-old fireball like Sal Stewart, who already has seven home runs this season, and a veteran like Eugenio Suárez, who specializes in punting mistake pitches into the seats. The Reds' lineup has the exact right-handed thump needed to exploit Bradley’s one true weakness.

On the other side, don’t let Andrew Abbott’s 5.85 ERA scare you off. That number is bloated by a single seven-run disaster against the Angels; in his other three starts, he’s been remarkably efficient. His xERA of 4.69 tells us he’s pitching better than his results, and while the Twins have stacked righties against him, the Reds' defense is "Platinum-level" at the corners. With Ke'Bryan Hayes at third and Elly De La Cruz at short, Abbott has the luxury of being a fly-ball pitcher because his infield vacuum cleans up everything on the dirt. Throw in a 17-mph jet stream blowing out to the short 328-foot right-field wall—a gift for lefties like TJ Friedl and Will Benson—and the Reds have all the environmental factors needed to pull off this "upset." Cincinnati is 6-2 on the road for a reason, and they’ve got the bullpen at full strength to slam the door. Give me the plus money on the better-valued team.