Mets at Cubs
O/U 8.5 · RL Cubs -1.5 · Wrigley Field
Mets ML-106
CONF 68%
LLostFinal 2-4
The read
The wind is howling in from center field at a chilly Wrigley Field as the New York Mets look to snap a nine-game nightmare against a Chicago Cubs team that has been scoring runs at a historic pace. On paper, this looks like a total mismatch given the momentum, but the betting line is telling a completely different story, and in baseball, you always look twice when a team on a nine-game skid is priced as a near pick'em against the hottest offense in the league.
The Chicago offense has put up double-digit runs in three straight games, but they are running into a massive wall today in Freddy Peralta. Peralta has been a career-long nightmare for this Cubs core, carrying a 9-3 career record against them and holding veterans like Ian Happ and Dansby Swanson to sub-.110 averages over significant samples. While Jameson Taillon gets a break with the wind blowing in to suppress his fly-ball tendencies, his recent form is a major red flag. Taillon has posted an 8.50 ERA over his last five starts, allowing nine home runs in that span. Even with the wind aiding him, his inability to miss bats compared to Peralta’s strikeout stuff gives the Mets a clear advantage in the early innings.
The real edge here is the hidden crisis in the Chicago bullpen. While the Cubs (10-9) have been blowing teams out, their relief corps has been decimated by a wave of fresh injuries. The loss of closer Daniel Palencia to an oblique strain yesterday is a massive blow to a unit already missing Phil Maton and several other key arms. If this game is tight late, the Mets (7-13) have a significant advantage with their high-leverage arms fully rested. The market is effectively baiting the public to ride the Cubs' winning streak at a cheap price, but the starting pitching disparity and the hollowed-out Chicago bullpen point toward the Mets finally finding the win column.
Injuries noted
Cubs: [KNOWN] Phil Maton (Relief Pitcher) — Knee (Right): Maton (0-1) allowed two runs on two hits while retiring two batters in relief to take the loss Tuesday against the Angels. He walked two and struck out one. (Apr 10 — 8d ago) [KNOWN] Julian Merryweather (Relief Pitcher) — Hamstring (Left): The Twins reassigned Merryweather (hamstring) to minor-league camp Monday. (Mar 22 — 27d ago) [NEW] Cade Horton (Starting Pitcher) — Elbow (Right): Horton (elbow) underwent Tommy John surgery Thursday and is expected to be sidelined up to 16 months, Taylor McGregor of Marquee Sports Network reports. (Apr 18 — 0d ago) [NEW] Matthew Boyd (Starting Pitcher) — Biceps (Left): The Cubs are expected to activate Boyd (biceps) from the 15-day injured list to start Wednesday's home game versus the Phillies, MLB.com reports. (Apr 18 — 0d ago) [NEW] Daniel Palencia (Relief Pitcher) — Oblique (Left): The Cubs placed Palencia on the 15-day injured list Friday with a left oblique strain. (Apr 17 — 0d ago) [NEW] Porter Hodge (Relief Pitcher) — Elbow (Right): Hodge is slated to undergo UCL surgery on his right elbow and will miss the rest of the 2026 season, Taylor McGregor of Marquee Sports Network reports. (Apr 15 — 2d ago) [NEW] Ethan Roberts (Relief Pitcher) — Undisclosed: The Cubs placed Roberts on the 15-day injured list Tuesday with an undisclosed injury. (Apr 14 — 3d ago) [KNOWN] Hunter Harvey (Relief Pitcher) — Triceps (Right): Harvey (0-1) allowed three runs on two hits and a walk while retiring just two batters in relief to take the loss Friday against the Guardians. (Apr 12 — 5d ago) Mets: [NEW] Jorge Polanco (Second Baseman) — Wrist (Right): Manager Carlos Mendoza said Friday that the Mets are awaiting the results of an MRI on Polanco's right wrist as the veteran infielder remains sidelined due to a sore Achilles, Max Goodman of NJ.com reports. (Apr 18 — 0d ago) [NEW] Kevin Herget (Relief Pitcher) — Undisclosed: Herget signed a minor league contract that includes an invitation to spring training with the Mets on Thursday, Will Sammon of The Athletic reports. (Apr 18 — 0d ago) [NEW] Juan Soto (Left Fielder) — Calf (Right): Soto (calf) continues to progress with his baseball activities and remains on track to return from the 10-day injured list next week, Laura Albanese of Newsday reports. (Apr 17 — 0d ago) [NEW] Jared Young (First Baseman) — Knee (Left): The Mets placed Young on the 10-day injured list Wednesday, retroactive to Monday, due to a meniscus tear in his left knee. (Apr 15 — 2d ago) [NEW] Joey Gerber (Relief Pitcher) — Finger (Right): Gerber struck out five and gave up two hits and a walk over two scoreless innings of relief in Monday's loss to the Dodgers. (Apr 14 — 3d ago) [KNOWN] Justin Hagenman (Relief Pitcher) — Ribs: The Mets placed Hagenman on the 60-day injured list Saturday due to a rib fracture. (Mar 14 — 34d ago) [KNOWN] Brandon Waddell (Relief Pitcher) — Shoulder (Left): The Mets outrighted Waddell to Triple-A Syracuse on Friday, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports. (Mar 8 — 40d ago) [KNOWN] Dedniel Nunez (Relief Pitcher) — Elbow (Right): The Mets transferred Nunez (elbow) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Monday. (Feb 15 — 61d ago) [KNOWN] Tylor Megill (Starting Pitcher) — Elbow (Right): The Mets and Megill (elbow) avoided arbitration by agreeing to a one-year, $2.5 million contract Thursday, Ari Alexander of 7 News Boston reports. (Feb 12 — 64d ago) [KNOWN] Reed Garrett (Relief Pitcher) — Elbow (Right): The Mets placed Garrett (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Tuesday. (Feb 10 — 66d ago)
Props on this game
2Freddy PeraltaOVER 5.5 Strikeouts Strikeouts-118
LActual 3
Freddy Peralta is the high-usage ace the Mets are relying on to snap their 9-game losing streak, and his strikeout floor is significantly higher than this 5.5 line suggests. Peralta has been elite at missing bats in 2026, averaging over 1.2 strikeouts per inning over his last five starts.
He has recorded at least 6 strikeouts in 75% of his starts this season. He faces a Cubs lineup that, while productive, remains aggressive.
The weather at Wrigley Field (48°F with 10 mph wind blowing in) heavily favors the pitcher, allowing Peralta to attack the strike zone with his high-spin fastball without the typical fear of the long ball. Historically, Peralta has dominated this franchise, and I expect the Mets to lean on him for at least 6 innings today, providing ample volume to clear this low hurdle.
Francisco LindorUNDER 1.5 Total Bases Total Bases-142
LActual 2
Francisco Lindor is currently struggling through a significant slump, mirroring the Mets' team-wide offensive collapse during their 9-game slide. Lindor's season average has dipped to .188, and he has failed to record multiple total bases in 70% of his last 10 games.
While he faces Jameson Taillon, who has a bloated ERA, the environmental factors at Wrigley today are the primary driver for this under. A 10 mph wind blowing directly in from center field combined with temperatures in the 40s will neutralize Lindor's fly-ball profile.
Even well-hit balls that would typically result in doubles or home runs are likely to be caught at the track in these conditions. Without the threat of extra bases, Lindor would likely need two separate hits to lose this bet, which he has only achieved three times in his last ten games.
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