Royals at Yankees

Friday night in the Bronx, and the marquee story is whether Michael Wacha’s early-season magic act can survive its toughest test yet under the lights of Yankee Stadium. While Wacha’s 0.43 ERA looks like a Cy Young pace on paper, the advanced metrics tell a much more vulnerable story—one that I’m betting the Yankees are ready to exploit.

Wacha has been the king of soft contact through three starts, but his 3.44 xERA and .297 xwOBA suggest he’s been living on borrowed time and extreme BABIP luck. He now walks into a stadium specifically built to punish right-handed pitchers who don't miss bats. The Yankees (10-9) are starting five lefties tonight, including the red-hot Ben Rice, who is currently sporting a massive 1.166 OPS. With that 314-foot short porch in right field, Wacha’s tendency to allow balls in play becomes a massive liability against a lineup that features the power of Aaron Judge—already at 8 home runs—and a veteran presence like Cody Bellinger.

On the other side, rookie Cam Schlittler is the real deal. His 2.49 ERA actually masks how dominant he’s been, evidenced by a 1.78 xERA and a staggering 12.5 K/9 rate. He’s facing a Royals (7-12) offense that is currently in a deep freeze, scoring more than two runs only twice in their last ten games. With Bobby Witt Jr. still searching for his first home run of 2026, the Royals simply don’t have the firepower to keep up if this game turns into a slugfest. After a brutal series against the Angels where the New York bullpen was taxed, expect Schlittler to set the tone early with high-velocity strikeouts. The price is heavy at -172, but when you weigh Schlittler’s underlying dominance against Wacha’s inevitable regression, the Yankees are the clear side to snap their slide at home.