MLB · Fri, Apr 17 · 6:40 PM

Rays at Pirates

O/U 8.5 · RL Pirates -1.5 · PNC Park

GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Rays· -126

The red-hot Tampa Bay Rays roll into PNC Park tonight on the back of a six-game winning streak, looking to extend their lead in the AL East against a Pittsburgh Pirates squad that has completely reinvented itself as a power-hitting powerhouse. This is a classic "streak vs. situation" matchup where the market is heavily weighing Tampa's recent momentum, but the underlying metrics tell a very different story about where the value lies. While Nick Martinez has been efficient on paper with a 2.16 ERA, the advanced data is screaming regression. His 4.21 xERA and low strikeout rate are massive red flags when facing a Pirates lineup that currently leads the league with a 49.4% Hard Hit Rate. Pittsburgh's heart of the order—Oneil Cruz, Brandon Lowe, and Ryan O'Hearn—is built on left-handed power that is perfectly positioned to exploit tonight's weather conditions. With temperatures in the mid-70s and a 5 mph wind blowing directly out to right field, Martinez’s contact-heavy approach is likely to result in several balls leaving the yard. Brandon Lowe is the guy to watch here; he has been on an absolute tear with 7 home runs and is clearly motivated in his first series against his former team. The real separation in this game happens after the fifth inning. The Rays are currently navigating a massive bullpen crisis with seven pitchers on the injured list, including high-leverage arms like Garrett Cleavinger. This has left their relief unit ranked 23rd in the league with a 4.46 ERA. If Martinez gets chased early—which happened in his last start where he failed to complete five innings—Tampa has to rely on a middle-relief core that has struggled with consistency. Conversely, the Pirates have a rested and elite backend featuring Gregory Soto and Dennis Santana, both of whom have maintained WHIPs near 0.70. In a tight game, the Pirates have the arms to shut the door, while the Rays are just trying to survive until their rotation gets healthy. I’m backing the Pirates to snap the Rays' streak and protect their home turf.

While Nick Martinez has been efficient on paper with a 2.16 ERA, the advanced data is screaming regression. His 4.21 xERA and low strikeout rate are massive red flags when facing a Pirates lineup that currently leads the league with a 49.4% Hard Hit Rate. Pittsburgh's heart of the order—Oneil Cruz, Brandon Lowe, and Ryan O'Hearn—is built on left-handed power that is perfectly positioned to exploit tonight's weather conditions. With temperatures in the mid-70s and a 5 mph wind blowing directly out to right field, Martinez’s contact-heavy approach is likely to result in several balls leaving the yard. Brandon Lowe is the guy to watch here; he has been on an absolute tear with 7 home runs and is clearly motivated in his first series against his former team.

The real separation in this game happens after the fifth inning. The Rays are currently navigating a massive bullpen crisis with seven pitchers on the injured list, including high-leverage arms like Garrett Cleavinger. This has left their relief unit ranked 23rd in the league with a 4.46 ERA. If Martinez gets chased early—which happened in his last start where he failed to complete five innings—Tampa has to rely on a middle-relief core that has struggled with consistency. Conversely, the Pirates have a rested and elite backend featuring Gregory Soto and Dennis Santana, both of whom have maintained WHIPs near 0.70. In a tight game, the Pirates have the arms to shut the door, while the Rays are just trying to survive until their rotation gets healthy. I’m backing the Pirates to snap the Rays' streak and protect their home turf.

The pick & result

Published pick: Pirates ML -126
Published odds: -126
Result: Won
Final score: 1-5

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

The read

Injuries noted

Pirates: [NEW] Jared Triolo (Third Baseman) — Knee (Right): Triolo (knee) is scheduled to resume running the bases next week, Jason Mackey of MLB.com reports. (Apr 16 — 1d ago) Rays: [NEW] Garrett Cleavinger (Relief Pitcher) — Calf (Right): Cleavinger (calf) is scheduled to face hitters in live batting practice Thursday, per MLB.com. (Apr 15 — 1d ago) [NEW] Ryan Pepiot (Starting Pitcher) — Hip (Right): Pepiot (hip) threw a 25-pitch bullpen session Sunday, Marc Topkin of Tampa Bay Times reports. (Apr 14 — 2d ago) [KNOWN] Gavin Lux (Second Baseman) — Shoulder (Right): Rays manager Kevin Cash said that Lux (shoulder) rolled his left ankle during an at-bat in a rehab game Saturday with Triple-A Durham, but the injury isn't "too severe," Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports. (Apr 13 — 4d ago) [KNOWN] Joe Boyle (Starting Pitcher) — Elbow (Right): The Rays placed Boyle on the 15-day injured list Saturday, retroactive to Friday, due to a right elbow strain. (Apr 11 — 6d ago) [KNOWN] Logan Driscoll (Catcher) — Ankle (Right): The Rays released Driscoll (ankle) on Friday, Ryan Bass of FanDuel Sports Network Sun reports. (Feb 18 — 58d ago) [KNOWN] Manuel Rodriguez (Relief Pitcher) — Elbow (Right): Rodriguez will have right elbow surgery Aug. 8 to address a flexor tendon repair, and his UCL will be evaluated during the surgery to determine if any additional procedures are needed, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports. (Feb 10 — 65d ago)

About this analysis

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Published data: Daily picks first stored April 17, 2026 at 4:46 PM ET.
Odds record: The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, fanatics, draftkings, caesars, betmgm, betrivers.
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Props on this game

GARY'S PICK
CHANDLER SIMPSONHITS OVER 1.5
MLBRays· +185
LOST · ACTUAL 1
Chandler Simpson is currently the most consistent contact hitter in the Rays lineup, batting .410 over his last 10 games with eight multi-hit performances in that span. He possesses elite speed that allows him to turn routine grounders into base hits, and as the leadoff hitter, he is guaranteed maximum plate appearances. He faces rookie Bubba Chandler, who is a high-variance pitcher with a bloated 1.57 WHIP and an xERA (5.57) that suggests he is allowing far more hard contact and traffic than his surface 3.86 ERA indicates. Simpson's contact-first approach is perfectly suited to exploit Chandler's lack of efficiency, making the +185 price on his 1.5-hit line exceptional value. The primary risk here is Bubba Chandler's strikeout ability (11.4 K/9); if the rookie can generate high whiff rates against the top of the Rays order, Simpson may not get enough balls in play to clear this volume-based line.
Chandler Simpson
Hits over 1.5
+185 · LOST · ACTUAL 1
Rays
Chandler Simpson is currently the most consistent contact hitter in the Rays lineup, batting .410 over his last 10 games with eight multi-hit performances in that span. He possesses elite speed that allows him to turn routine grounders into base hits, and as the leadoff hitter, he is guaranteed maximum plate appearances. He faces rookie Bubba Chandler, who is a high-variance pitcher with a bloated 1.57 WHIP and an xERA (5.57) that suggests he is allowing far more hard contact and traffic than his surface 3.86 ERA indicates. Simpson's contact-first approach is perfectly suited to exploit Chandler's lack of efficiency, making the +185 price on his 1.5-hit line exceptional value.
The primary risk here is Bubba Chandler's strikeout ability (11.4 K/9); if the rookie can generate high whiff rates against the top of the Rays order, Simpson may not get enough balls in play to clear this volume-based line.
GARY'S PICK
NICK MARTINEZPITCHER OUTS UNDER 15.5
MLBRays· -124
LOST · ACTUAL 16
Nick Martinez is a prime regression candidate tonight. While he carries a shiny 2.16 ERA into the contest, his 4.21 xERA and 0.326 xwOBA indicate he has been fortunate to avoid major damage thus far. His recent form is even more concerning, posting an 8.46 ERA over his last five starts while failing to reach the 5.1-inning mark (16 outs) in three of those five outings. He faces a Pirates lineup that matches up perfectly against him; Pittsburgh's top four hitters (Cruz, Lowe, Reynolds, O'Hearn) are all left-handed or switch-hitters, giving them the platoon advantage against the right-handed Martinez in a park with 75-degree weather and wind blowing out to right field. Given his recent efficiency struggles and the unfavorable matchup, Martinez is unlikely to navigate deep into the sixth inning. The risk for this prop is Martinez's ability to induce soft contact and double plays. If he can maintain a low pitch count by pitching to contact early, he could theoretically pitch into the 6th inning despite his underlying metrics.
Nick Martinez
Pitcher Outs under 15.5
-124 · LOST · ACTUAL 16
Rays
Nick Martinez is a prime regression candidate tonight. While he carries a shiny 2.16 ERA into the contest, his 4.21 xERA and 0.326 xwOBA indicate he has been fortunate to avoid major damage thus far. His recent form is even more concerning, posting an 8.46 ERA over his last five starts while failing to reach the 5.1-inning mark (16 outs) in three of those five outings. He faces a Pirates lineup that matches up perfectly against him; Pittsburgh's top four hitters (Cruz, Lowe, Reynolds, O'Hearn) are all left-handed or switch-hitters, giving them the platoon advantage against the right-handed Martinez in a park with 75-degree weather and wind blowing out to right field. Given his recent efficiency struggles and the unfavorable matchup, Martinez is unlikely to navigate deep into the sixth inning.
The risk for this prop is Martinez's ability to induce soft contact and double plays. If he can maintain a low pitch count by pitching to contact early, he could theoretically pitch into the 6th inning despite his underlying metrics.

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